Venezuelan Elections The Chávez Era

Elections that Created the Fifth Republic National elections of 1998 Constituent Assembly and Constitutional Referendum of 1999 – Continued domination by the Patriotic Pole – Manipulated electoral law shuts out opposition from writing of the new constitution December referendum on the new constitution – Overwhelming approval – Abstention high

Charismatic Campaigner

Elections that Staffed the Fifth Republic: Presidential Conditions – Plurality – six year term – Delay of balloting The Contendors – MVR and MAS back Chavez – Francisco Arias Cardenas spearheads the opposition – Claudio Fermin: Punto Fijo revival? Outcome – Chavez wins 60% of the total popular vote

Elections that Staffed the Fifth Republic: National Assembly Conditions Mixed list-plurality system Five-year term The Contendors MVR and MAS form Patriotic Pole AD fields candidates in all states New political parties in the regions (states) Outcome Patriotic Pole wins majority – but unable to modify the constitution AD has largest opposition delegation Middle class parties elect numerous Assemblymen

Elections that Staffed the Fifth Republic: Regions Conditions Governors elected – first past the post (five year terms) Mixed list-plurality system for state legislatures The Contendors MVR and MAS form Patriotic Pole AD fields candidates in all states New political parties in the regions (states) Outcome Patriotic Pole wins 16 of the 21 governors Zulia remains with the opposition Central states (Aragua & Carabobo) back opposition AD elects governors in the Llanos

Elections that Staffed the Fifth Republic: Municipalities Conditions Mayors elected in mega-elections of July 30, 2000 Councilmen elected in December local elections Neighborhood councils elected in December local elections The Contendors MVR and MAS form Patriotic Pole AD fields candidates in most municipalities New political parties in the regions run candidates for mayor/councilmen Outcome Patriotic Pole wins a majority of majors, but just barely AD elects almost 30% of the majors s Junta parochiales split among opposition and government forces

* increases progressively after the 1998 national elections *reaches 80% in the municipal elections of December 2000 *Exhaustion with electoral politics Abstention

Electoral Panorama: Marginalization of Chávez Opponents Revocatory referendum (August, 15, 2004) 60% for retention Regional and Local elections (October 31, 2004) 80% of seats for the Revolution Municipal Council elections (August 7, 2005) 80 % of seats for the Revolution National Assembly Elections (November, 2006) opposition abstains; Chavez forces win all seats.

National Assembly of Venezuela Election Results (December 2005) Fifth Republic Movement (Movimiento V [Quinta] República) Fifth Republic Movement 2,041,293 votes 60.0 % seats (out of 167) For Social Democracy (Por la Democracia Social) For Social Democracy 277,482 votes 8.2% - 18 seats Fatherland for All (Patria para Todos) Fatherland for All 197,459 votes 6.8 % (10 seats) Communist Party of Venezuela (Partido Comunista de Venezuela) Communist Party of Venezuela 94,606 votes 2.7% (7 seats) LAGO 61,789 votes 1.8% (2 seats)

Reelection emboldens Chavez to call for a Referendum to Change the Constitution November 2, 2007 – National Assembly approves a constitutional overhaul. Leads to riots (light) in Caracas

Proposed major changes Allowing the indefinite re-election of the president - not applicable to any other political post Increasing the presidential term from six to seven years Introducing changes to the country's administrative structure Ending the autonomy of the central bank lacing the president in charge of administering the country's international reserves Reducing the maximum working week from 44 to 36 hours 33 Articles of 1998 Constitution were to be amended

Voters Narrowly Reject the Reforms First electoral defeat for Chavez followed by government efforts to weaken the opposition. RCTV (television station) licensed was not renewed 272 people seeking public office banned from running for office in upcoming state & municipal elections Elections scheduled for November 23, 2008

Creating PSUV (United Socialist Party of Venezuela Process initiated after Chavez won the presidential election of December 2006 Purpose – merge all parties that support the Bolivarian Revolution On 24 March 2007, the first 2,000 party members took their oaths on a party ceremony. Founding congress held in April 2008

Political Parties Joining PSUV People's Electoral Movement (MEP) People's Electoral Movement Everybody Wins Independent Movement (MIGATO) Everybody Wins Independent Movement Venezuelan Popular Unity (UPV) [7] Venezuelan Popular Unity [7] Revolutionary Movement Tupamaro (MRT) Revolutionary Movement Tupamaro Socialist League (LS) Socialist League Movement for Direct Democracy (MDD) Movement for Direct Democracy Union Party Militant Civic Movement (MCM) Militant Civic Movement Action Force of Base Coordination (FACOBA) Action Force of Base Coordination Independents for the National Community (IPCN) Independents for the National Community

Revolutionary Parties Not joining PSUV For Social Democracy (PODEMOS) For Social Democracy Fatherland for All (PPT) Fatherland for All Communist Party of Venezuela (PCV) Communist Party of Venezuela Revolutionary Middle Class (CMR) Revolutionary Middle Class Emergent People (GE) Emergent People National Socialist Group of Liberation Pro Venezuela (PROVEN) National Socialist Group of Liberation Pro Venezuela Communitary Patriotic Unity (UPC) Communitary Patriotic Unity

Recent Poll from Últimas Noticias Communal +Popular Power  Recent Poll from Últimas Noticias Communal +Popular Power  Public Attitudes Toward Creation of PSUV

Elections 23 November, governorships All state legislators 328 Mayors

About 2.5 million members of the party choose candidates 22 governors 328 mayors If no single pre-candidate obtains at least 50% plus 1 of the votes, or 15% more votes than the next highest pre-candidate, the national executive body of the PSUV and President Chavez, can select the candidate out of the three who achieved the highest vote. PSUV: Candidate Selection for Elections of November 23, 2008

Caracas: Municipalities

PSUV: Primary vote for Metropolitan Mayor: Caracas ARISTOBULO IZTURIZ ALMEIDA 94.64% votos ANGEL LUIS AGOSTINI RINCONES 00.88% votos SORA ANGELLA MARTINEZ 00.53% 729 votos

PSUV: Primary vote for Governor of Miranda DIOSDADO CABELLO RONDON 87,39% votos TULIO AMADO JIMENEZ RODRIGUEZ 5,11% votos ARMANDO GARCIA 1,11% 283 votos REBECA PADILLA 0,93% 237 votos

PSUV: Primary vote for Metropolitan Mayor: Maracaibo HENRY JOSE RAMIREZ SANCHEZ 64,41% votos CALIXTO ANTONIO ORTEGA RIOS 12,5% votos JOE ANTONIO BERMUDEZ RINCON 4,18% votos

Táchira State capital : San Cristobal Area: % 11,100 km² 1.2 (Ranked 16 th ) Population: % 1,177,300 hab. (2007 est.) 4.5 (Ranked 9 th ) Governor: Roland Blanco La Cruz(PSUV); 2004 – 2008 )Roland Blanco La Cruz

PSUV: Primary vote for Governor of Tachira LEONARDO ALI SALCEDO RAMIREZ 39,4% votos JOSE GREGORIO VIELMA MORA 33,3% votos FRANCISCO JAVIER ARIAS CARDENAS 8,65% votos

Barinas: Fiefdom of the Chavez family

PSUV: Primary vote for Governor of Barinas Gobernador o Gobernadora de Estado ADAN COROMOTO CHAVEZ FRIAS 91,15% votos MARCOS RAMON FERNANDEZ 3,4% votos RAMON ADOLFO FALCON 2,9% votos

Platform for PSUV PSUV Expand Popular Power + Communal Power New Constitution + Termination of 2 term of Presidency Unitary Poltical Party

November 23, 2008 Elections RESULTS Venezuelan Comptroller General banned almost 300 candidates Opposition won five (out of 22) state governorships Zulia, Tachira, Nueva Esparta, Carabobo & Miranda Dissident Chavistas peform poorly ( Barinas, Lara & Guarico) Opposition victories in race for mayor of metropolitan Caracas & Maracaibo Government unhappy with losses in key states & municipios

Second Constitutional Referendum: February 15, 2009 Economic deterioration leads President to schedule the referendum as quickly as possible Rainy day funds used to prevent economic downturn Initial proposal to permit indefinite reelection of president only in trouble Changed to allow for indefinite reelection of governors & mayors

Electoral Appeal & Voting Campaign slogans & outcome Bugles sounding from government vehicles roused people - queues swiftly formed outside polling "Chávez loves us and love is repaid with love Chávez is incapable of doing us harm 54% of voters support indefinite reelection of the president and other office holders

Love & War with Colombia: Is there an electoral dimension? What is going on?Protest against U.S. Bases Chavez orders troops to prepare for War Popularity of Chavez government falling Barrio Adentro deteriorated Electricity and water shortages Divert the attention of voters in run up to 2010 election s?