ARMENIA: DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGES Shavarsh Kocharyan Member of the Parliament Prepared for the Fourth International AIPRG conference on Armenia: Public Sector Governance and Economic Efficiency January 14-15, 2005 World Bank Washington, DC

Table 1. World population growth CenturyYearsWorld population (x 10 9 ) Number of years Average annual growth (x 10 6 ) Annual growth / 1000 people I-XIX 10,3~ ,00030, ,40, XX XXI 20026, , , XXI - XXX

Table Countries of total 192, where population in sum makes up 80 million Singapore (4,4 x 10 6 ), Uruguay, Lebanon, Libya, Liberia, Albania, Armenia, Congo, Panama, Mauritania, Mongolia, Jamaica, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Latvia, Lesotho, Bhutan, Macedonia, Slovenia, Kuwait, Namibia, Botswana, Estonia, Zambia, Trinidad and Tobago, Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Mauritius, Swaziland, Guyana, Fiji, Cyprus, Comoros, Djibouti, Bahrain, Qatar, Equatorial Guinea, Solomon Islands, Luxemburg, Cape Verde, Surinam, Malta, Brunei, Bagams, Maldives, Barbados, Belize, Vanuatu, Samoa, Santa Lucia, Island, Sao Tome and Principe, Micronesia, Santa Vincentia and Grenadines, Tonga, Grenada, Kiribati, Andorra, Seychelles, Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda, Marshall Islands, Monaco, Lichtenstein, San Marino, Palau, Nauru, Tuvalu (11 600).

Table 3. Population of three countries (x109) and their percentage in the worlds population Country China0,3 (30 percent)1,30 (20 percent)1,4 (15 percent) India0,2 (20 percent)1,07 (17 percent)1,6 (18 percent) The USA0,006 (0,6 percent)0,29 (4,6 percent)0,42(4,6 percent)

Table 4. Population growth by continents Continent1950 Population X Population X 10 6 Growth (percent) Population X 10 6 Growth (percent) Asia Africa Europe South America North America Australia and Oceania World

Table 5. World population percentage by continents Continent Asia56,260,658,9 Africa8,913,220,3 Europe21,412,07,0 South America4,35,75,3 North America8,68,07,9 Australia and Oceania4,70,5

Table 6. Countries with rapid population growth ContinentCountry Population (x10 6 ) Times increased Africa Uganda23,3132,75,7 Madagascar15,565,54,2 Guinea7,528,73,8 Burundi6,122,93,8 Congo52,0183,23,5 Nigeria123,3356,52,9 Asia Yemen17,571,14,1 Oman2,58,33,3 Afghanistan25,981,93,2 Tajikistan6,416,62,6 Pakistan141,6295,02,1 Nepal24,753,32,2 Laos5,513,22,3 Cambodia12,225,12,1 Malaysia21,843,12,0 Philippines81,2147,61,8 America Paraguay5,614,62,6 Nicaragua4,89,42,0 Guatemala12,622,81,8 Australia and Oceania Papua New Guinea4,910,72,2

Table 7. Population decline (growth) in democratic countries CountryPopulation (x10 6 )Growth * (percent) Japan127,499,9- 22 (-20) Italy58,150,4-13 (-34) Spain40,335,6- 12 (-27) Germany82,473,6- 11 (-31) Portugal10,69,9- 7 (-28) The USA295,7420,1+ 42 Israel6,38,5+ 35 Ireland4,05,4+ 35 Canada32,841,4+ 26 Australia20,124,2+ 20 * - forecast of 2006, in brackets

Table 8. Median age in 2003 Europe37,7 North America35,4 Oceania30,7 Asia26,1 South America24,2 Africa18,3 World26,4

Table 9. Population aging and family Indicator EuropeArmenia First marriage rate for women below 50 77%62%50% Mean age of woman at first marriage24,226,523,2 Mean age of woman at birth of first child 24,425,922,4 Total fertility rates (children per a woman) 1,81,51,2 Extra-marital births15%28%13% Divorces26%32%7%

Table 10. Lowest and highest population growth rates in member states of Council of Europe in 2002 CountryNatural growthImmigrationTotal growth Ukraine-7-8 Georgia0-6 Bulgaria-60 Russia-71-6 Latvia-5-6 Lithuania-3-4 Estonia-40 Moldova-2-3 Romania-30 Serbia-30 France415 Norway246 Switzerland178 Portugal178 Azerbaijan808 Italy066 Turkey14216 Spain11516 Albania11516 Ireland8917

Table 11. Lowest and highest total fertility rates in member states of Council of Europe Country Fertility rate (children per 1 woman) Turkey2,46 Albania2,20 Ireland1,97 Iceland1,93 France1,88 Macedonia1,77 Norway1,75 Netherlands1,73 Denmark1,73 Finland1,72 Europe1,50 Bosnia and Herzegovina1,23 Belarus1,21 Slovenia1,21 Moldova1,21 Bulgaria1,21 Armenia1,21 Slovakia1,19 San Marino1,19 Czech Republic1,17 Ukraine1,13

Table 12. Population in Armenia YearPopulation (x10 6 )Average annual growth Annual growth / 1000 people 19131, , , , , , , , ,0

Table 13. Population in Armenia and other regional countries Country Population in 1970 Population in 1990 Population in X 10 6 Population X 10 6 Growth (percent) Armenia2,53,53,0 0 Georgia4,75,44,73,8-20 Azerbaijan5,27,17,910,7+35 Iran29,049,868,089,7+32 Turkey35,055,569,786,5+24 Russia131,0147,7143,4110,1-23

Table 14. Demography of Council of Europes regional member states Countries Fertilit y rate Natural growth Migration Population growth Aged / + 65 Median age 2000 / 2050 Armenia 1,20,2-0,3-0,15,630,4 / 53,4 Azerbaijan 1,60,8-0,10,78,826,7 / 47,2 Georgia 1,40-0,7 4,134,8 / 49,2 Russia 1,3-0,70,1-0,64,336,8 / 50,0 Turkey 2,51,40,21,610,5 Europe 1,5-0,010,240,23537,7 / 50,0

Table 15. Population decline (growth) in democratic countries CountryPopulation (x10 6 )Growth * (percent) Japan127,499,9- 22 (-20) Italy58,150,4-13 (-34) Spain40,335,6- 12 (-27) Germany82,473,6- 11 (-31) Portugal10,69,9- 7 (-28) The USA295,7420,1+ 42 Israel6,38,5+ 35 Ireland4,05,4+ 35 Canada32,841,4+ 26 Australia20,124,2+ 20

Thank you for your attention!