Population Projections Shaun McLaughlin, CSO Presentation to HASIG seminar 2 December 2008

Layout of presentation zIntroduction to projection methodology zAssumptions yExpert Group yFertility, Mortality, Migration zProjection process illustration zResults – Republic of Ireland zLabour Force projections

Introduction zProjections in a 5-yearly cycle to coincide with Census (every 2 years for NI) zState projections – 35 year period yLabour Force projections for state zRegional projections – 20 years

Population Projections Methodology

Projection method 2006 Population + Births - Deaths + Net Migration “Age on Population” = 2007 Projected Population Cohort component method

Projection method zCensus population used as starting point ySingle year of age and sex zAssumptions on fertility, mortality and migration zSeveral different scenarios based on different assumptions zExpert group to agree assumptions

Projection method zState assumptions include Labour Force projections for 15 year span zFollowed by regional projections yBreakdown of state figures yAdditional assumptions

Population Projections Assumptions

zFertility rate zMortality rate zMigration flows 2006 Population + Births - Deaths + Net Migration “Age on Population” = 2007 Projected Population This method……requires this information:

Assumptions zExpert Group on Population projections yCSO personnel xCensus xVital Statistics xQuarterly National Household Survey (Migration) yGovernment Departments yAcademics

Expert Group z2 or 3 meeting of Group to agree projections z1 st meeting yAgree intial assumptions yCSO produce projections based on these z2 nd meeting yReview initial results yAmend assumptions, meet again if needed

Fertility zHistoric picture zFalling trends here and abroad zFertility postponement

Births, RoI

Northern Ireland equivalent

Fertility assumptions zF1: TFR to remain at its 2006 level of 1.9 for the lifetime of the projections zF2: TFR to decrease to 1.65 by 2016 and to remain constant thereafter

Mortality assumptions zMortality rates are assumed to decrease which will result in gains in life expectancy at birth from:  76.7 years in 2005 to 86.5 years in 2041 for males  81.5 years in 2005 to 88.2 years in 2041 for females

Migration assumptions Population change components

Migration assumptions zMigration is main driver of population change in Republic of Ireland zMost unpredictable factor yDepends on many factors yEconomic / employment situation yEU enlargement yToo many influences to model

Migration for recent years

Migration assumptions zHighly unpredictable yNot trying to forecast economy etc. z2 Main assumptions: yM1: Continued high in-migration yM2: More moderate migration z3 rd Zero-migration assumption yUseful to gauge effect of migration

Migration assumptions

Assumptions summary z2 Fertility assumptions yF1: Continuing high fertility yF2: Decreasing fertility z3 Migration Assumptions yM1: Continuing high migration yM2: More moderate migration yM0: Zero migration z1 Mortality Assumption

Population Projections Process

Projection illustration

MalesFemales Start with initial population (2006). Single year of age pyramid

Projection illustration MalesFemales Mortality assumptions => number of deaths at each age

Projection illustration MalesFemales Subtract deaths

Projection illustration MalesFemales Migration assumptions => number of emigrants

Projection illustration MalesFemales

Projection illustration MalesFemales Migration assumptions => number of immigrants

Projection illustration MalesFemales

Projection illustration MalesFemales Population ages by 1 year

Projection illustration MalesFemales Fertility rates + no. of women of child-bearing age

Projection illustration MalesFemales Number of births (i.e. age 0)

Projection illustration MalesFemales Result is projected population after 1 year (2007)

Projection illustration MalesFemales Repeat as required! Result is projected population after 1 year (2007)

Population Projections Results

Population,

Projected population Migration accounts for over 90% of range

Primary & Secondary populations z“Primary” 5-12 was 450,500 in 2006 yWill increase under all assumptions xTo 623,100 by 2021 under M1F1 (+172,600) xTo 480,500 by 2021 under M0F2 (+30,000) z“Secondary” was 342,300 in 2006 yWill decline initially xTo 339,400 by 2011 under M1F1 xThen increase again to reach 409,700 by 2021

Young population zPopulation 0-14 yPeaked at 1,044,000 in 1981 yFell to a low of 827,500 in 2001 zHas increased since - was 865,000 in 2006 zIs projected to grow under all assumptions yBy 2016 will reach1,074,400 under M1F1 y and1,048,800 under M2F1 zUnder low fertility assumption yBy 2021 will be 1,021,200 under M2F2 y and0,866,900 under M0F2

Primary school-going population

Working age population zWorking age population (15-64) y2,905,500 in 2006 yUp 316,000 (2.3% p.a.) since 2001 zIn determining projections migration is key factor yM1F1 3,745,900 in 2021 yUp 840,000 (1.7% p.a.) yM2F1 3,565,800 in 2021 yUp 660,300 (1.4% p.a.)

Births zPopulation aged 0-14 in 2021 determined by annual births between 2006 and 2021 zBirths yHistoric high of74,000 in 1980 yHistoric low of48,300 in 1994 yMore recent high of 64,200 in 2006 zAverage annual projected births 2016 to 2021 yHighest under M1F1 79,000 yCompared with M2F2 69,000 yAnd M0F2 51,000

Projected population

Old population (65+ years) zOld population (65+) y ,400 y2041 (M0) 1,313,300 y2041 (M2) 1,396,600 3 fold increase y2041 (M1) 1,434,400 zOldest old population (80+) y ,000 y2041 (M0) 443,700 = 4 fold increase

Actual and projected dependency ratios (M2F2)

Population pyramid for 2006 and 2041 (M1F1)

Population pyramid for 2006 and 2041 (M0F2)

Population Projections Labour Force Projections

Labour Force projections zLabour force yPersons aged 15+ at work or unemployed yExcludes homemakers / pupils / retired zLabour force participation rate yNumber of persons in the labour force, expressed as a percentage of the total

Labour Force Projections zDone as a final step in the projections process zMake assumptions about participation rates zApply these to the results of population projections zCovers 15 year period

Labour Force Projections zDifferent participation rates for different sections of population yMale / Female yStudent / Non-student yHave children? (For females) xDifficult to project – use marriage rates instead

Labour Force Projections

Labour Force participation rate assumptions zMales  LFPR of year old males largely unchanged  Minor increases in LFPR of males aged 45+ reflecting a greater propensity to remain in the LF  Married females  Further LFPR gains for year olds  Moderate gains in LFPR for females 50+  Other females  Moderate increases in LFPR of these females

Projected Labour Force YearMales Females Persons MarriedOtherTotal Thousands Actual* , , , , ,118.0 M , ,029.02, , ,131.82, , ,212.02,865.2 M , ,013.72, , ,092.62, , ,148.52,717.3 M , , , , , ,284.1

Projected labour force zWorking age population x participation rates zBetween 2002 and ,000 p.a. zProjected up to ,000 p.a. under M1 z +40,000 p.a. under M2 z +13,000 p.a. under M0 zSplit increases into demographic / participation zDemographic effect drives increases ymales 90% under M1, and 66% under M0 ymarried females 77% under M1 ysingle females - demographic negative under M0

Labour force growth rates

Migration and the labour force

Population Projections Any questions?