Global Science Forum OECD Global Science Forum Study on Declining interest in science studies Preliminary Report on the Quantitative Analysis Prof. Jean-Jacques Duby Chairman, Steering Committee

Global Science Forum Quantitative analysis: methodology Data from 18 countries Australia, Belgium (Flanders + Wallonia), Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Korea, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Sweden, Turkey, UK, USA Data on four educational stages –Upper secondary graduation –Entrance into tertiary education –Tertiary education graduation –PhD Data available between 1985 and 2003

Global Science Forum Quantitative analysis: methodology Number of students at each stage –S&T, non S&T –Disciplines within S&T Mathematics & Statistics, Physical Sciences, Life Science, Computing, Engineering –Males, Females –Nationals, non nationals Problem of data consistency between countries –Study trends (e.g. annual changes) and ratios (e.g. M/F)

Global Science Forum Quantitative analysis Performed by OECD Secretariat –Economic Analysis and Statistics Division, STI Directorate –Indicator and Analysis Division, Education Directorate –Global Science Forum Staff Final results to be presented together with causes and remedies –November OECD GSF Conference in Amsterdam

Global Science Forum Quantitative analysis: preliminary report Status report as of May-June 2005 Restricted to period –Most recent –More exhaustive data (some country data omitted) Considers S&T students –Tertiary education entrants, graduates, PhD –By discipline –By gender –National origin analyzed in final study Upper secondary graduates analyzed in final study

Global Science Forum Tertiary Education S&T Entrants, Graduates and PhD Total number of S&T students generally increasing Ratio of S&T graduates and PhD vs. total number of students decreasing in a majority of countries Important differences between countries

Global Science Forum Number of S&T students average annual change (*) (*) Computed as Mean normalized regression coefficient

Global Science Forum Percentage of S&T students average annual change (*) (*) Computed as Mean normalized regression coefficient

Global Science Forum S&T Entrants, Graduates, PhD by discipline Generally increasing trends in Computer and Engineering Sharp decreases in Mathematics and Physical Sciences Life Science graduates and PhD increasing, potential future decline indicated by new entrants Finer breakdown to appear in final report

Global Science Forum Number of students per discipline average annual change (*) (*) Computed as Mean normalized regression coefficient

Global Science Forum The Gender issue Female ratio far below 50% –Most countries between 20% and 35% –A few countries over 35% or under 20% Positive trend for graduates and PhD –But with a 40% “glass ceiling” projection Less significant trend for entrants

Global Science Forum Percentage of female S&T students averages

Global Science Forum S&T Entrants female percentage annual change vs. average

Global Science Forum S&T Graduates female percentage annual change vs. average

Global Science Forum S&T PhD female percentage annual change vs. average

Global Science Forum The Gender issue by discipline Generally more Females than Males in Life Science Female ratio dramatically low (20% and below) in Computer and Engineering Mathematics and Physical Sciences between 20% and 50% Important differences between trends for different disciplines and countries

Global Science Forum Percentage of female students by discipline averages

Global Science Forum Percentage of female S&T Entrants by discipline annual change vs. average

Global Science Forum Preliminary conclusions Decrease of percentage of S&T students –Particularly at Graduate and PhD level –Does not translate into decrease of absolute numbers (yet?) Countries differently affected –Reasons to be analyzed in final study (demography, education system, culture, economics…) Disciplines differently affected –Major decrease in Math and Physics –Overall increase in Computer and Engineering Female students in minority –Except for Life Science –Particularly for Computer and Engineering

Global Science Forum To be continued at… OECD Global Science Forum CONFERENCE ON DECLINING INTEREST IN SCIENCE STUDIES AMONG YOUNG PEOPLE November 14-15, 2005 Amsterdam, Koepelkerk Convention Centre