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Prof. Rafi Melnick Provost, IDC Herzliya National Security Balance The Civilian Quantitative Dimension The Herzliya Indices Herzliya Conference 2014.

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Presentation on theme: "Prof. Rafi Melnick Provost, IDC Herzliya National Security Balance The Civilian Quantitative Dimension The Herzliya Indices Herzliya Conference 2014."— Presentation transcript:

1 Prof. Rafi Melnick Provost, IDC Herzliya National Security Balance The Civilian Quantitative Dimension The Herzliya Indices Herzliya Conference 2014

2 Development of the Economic Dimension in Israel 1990-2013 June 2014 Prof. Rafi Melnick - IDC Herzliya

3 ... N indicators are measurable; they affect and are affected by national security, which is an unobservable latent variable. The presence of multiple indicators allows (under defined assumptions) one to quantify national security. A rise in each indicator means improvement in national security, in the corresponding dimension. Multiple Indicators Approach June 2014Prof. Rafi Melnick - IDC Herzliya

4 1. GDP Per Capita, PPP (16%) 2. GDP, PPP (15%) 3. Unemployment (15%) 4. General Government Gross Financial Liabilities (half weight 11%) 5. R&D Investment* - Percent of GDP (11%) 6. Current Account Balance (11%) 7. Inflation (11%) 8. Long Term interest rate** (5%) 9. Fiscal Deficit** (5%) Prof. Rafi Melnick - IDC Herzliya * Replacing High-Technology Exports % of Manufactured Exports General Government Gross) ** Replacing Foreign currency reserves (half weight of 10%) June 2014 Components of the Economic Indicator (Relative Weight in Parenthesis)

5  Construction of a panel data set of 27 countries  The model includes:  Israel  26 OECD countries  Data ranges from 1990 through 2013 Prof. Rafi Melnick - IDC HerzliyaJune 2014 The Model

6 Primary Sources  OECD Statistics  OECD Economic Outlook  Israel’s National Insurance institute - Research and Planning Administration  Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics Secondary Sources  IFS – International Financial Statistics (IMF)  IMF – World Economic Outlook  Bank of Israel and various central banks  Other sources Prof. Rafi Melnick - IDC HerzliyaJune 2014 Economic Data Resources

7  A preliminary base is calibrated.  Each variable is measured in percentage change or percentage difference in the case that its basic measurement is in percents  An annual weighted average is calculated using the weights obtained from a panel of experts  The indices are formed, over time, by cumulating annual weighted averages Methodology Prof. Rafi Melnick - IDC HerzliyaJune 2014

8 2014 RESULTS The Herzliya Indices

9 Economic Base - 1990 Prof. Rafi Melnick - IDC Herzliya June 2014

10 Economic Base - 2013 Prof. Rafi Melnick - IDC Herzliya June 2014

11 Development of the Economic Dimension Israel and the Developed Countries Prof. Rafi Melnick - IDC HerzliyaJune 2014

12 Per Capita GDP Growth - 2013 (percent) Prof. Rafi Melnick - IDC HerzliyaJune 2014

13 Unemployment Rate - 2013 (percent) Prof. Rafi Melnick - IDC HerzliyaJune 2014

14 General Government Liabilities - 2013 (percent of GDP) Prof. Rafi Melnick - IDC HerzliyaJune 2014

15 Economic Dimension Gap Israel and the Developed Countries Prof. Rafi Melnick - IDC HerzliyaJune 2014

16 Economic Index 2013 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 USA 103.54 Japan 74.26 Norway 73.29 Germany 73.08 Switzerland 72.48 Canada 69.49 Netherlands 69.33 Australia 68.67 UK 68.51 Denmark 68.21 Sweden 67.54 France 66.66 Austria 66.49 Korea, Rep 65.54 Belgium 64.23 New Zealand 63.37 lreland 63.16 Israel 62.56 Finland 62.25 ltaly 62.10 Spain 58.50 Czech Rep 58.01 Portugal 56.34 Poland 53.78 Hungary 51.02 Greece 50.18 Turkey 46.69 Prof. Rafi Melnick - IDC HerzliyaJune 2014

17 The Herzliya Composite Economic Social Index

18 1. GDP Per Capita, PPP (11%) 2. GDP, PPP (10%) 3. Unemployment (10%) 4. Poverty Incidence (10%) 5. Inequality Gini (8%) 6. General Government Gross Financial Liabilities (8%) 7. R&D Investment - % of GDP (8%) 8. Current Account Balance (8%) 9. Long Term Unemployment (7%) 10. Employment Rate (7%) 11. Inflation (7%) 12. Long Term Interest Rate (3%) 13. Fiscal Deficit (3%) Components of the Economic-Social Indicator (Relative Weight in Parenthesis, Social indicators in yellow) Prof. Rafi Melnick - IDC HerzliyaJune 2014

19 Development of the Economic and Social Dimension in Israel Prof. Rafi Melnick - IDC Herzliya June 2014 1990 - 2013

20 Poverty Incidence in Israel 1979 - 2012 (Families, percent) Prof. Rafi Melnick - IDC HerzliyaJune 2014

21 Poverty Incidence (Families, the latest available data point, percent) Prof. Rafi Melnick - IDC HerzliyaJune 2014

22 Inequality in Israel 1979-2012 (Families, Gini Coefficient) Prof. Rafi Melnick - IDC HerzliyaJune 2014

23 Inequality (Families, the latest available data point, Gini coefficient) Prof. Rafi Melnick - IDC HerzliyaJune 2014

24 Long Term Unemployment in Israel 1995-2013 (percent) Prof. Rafi Melnick - IDC HerzliyaJune 2014

25 Long Term Unemployment (Families, the latest available data point, percent) Prof. Rafi Melnick - IDC HerzliyaJune 2014

26 Employment Rate Israel 1995 - 2013 (percent) Prof. Rafi Melnick - IDC HerzliyaJune 2014

27 Employment Rate (The latest available data point, Percent) Prof. Rafi Melnick - IDC Herzliya June 2014

28 Economic Social Base - 1990 Prof. Rafi Melnick - IDC Herzliya June 2014

29 Economic Social Base - 2013 Prof. Rafi Melnick - IDC Herzliya June 2014

30 Development of the Economic Social Dimension Prof. Rafi Melnick - IDC Herzliya June 2014 Israel and the Developed Countries

31 Economic Social Dimension Gap Prof. Rafi Melnick - IDC Herzliya June 2014 Israel and the Developed Countries

32 Economic Social Index 2013 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 USA 101.76 Japan 75.15 Germany 72.34 Switzerland 72.00 Norway 71.71 Canada 68.22 UK 68.20 Netherlands 68.02 Australia 66.68 Denmark 66.67 France 66.29 Austria 65.87 Sweden 65.35 Belgium 63.66 Korea, Rep 63.52 lreland 61.92 ltaly 61.90 New Zealand 61.85 Finland 61.06 Israel 59.83 Spain 58.21 Czech Rep 56.92 Portugal 56.39 Poland 52.32 Greece 50.05 Hungary 49.96 Turkey 45.48 Prof. Rafi Melnick - IDC HerzliyaJune 2014

33 Development of the Economic and the Economic Social Dimension a Comparison Prof. Rafi Melnick - IDC Herzliya June 2014 Israel and the Developed Countries

34 Economic and Economic Social Dimension Gap Prof. Rafi Melnick - IDC Herzliya June 2014 Israel and the Developed Countries

35 Prof. Rafi Melnick - IDC Herzliya Thank you

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