1. PISA 2015 results in England
John Jerrim and Nikki Shure
UCL Institute of Education

2. Background
72 countries participated (75 if you separate out the UK)…………..
Conducted every three years since 2000
Reading, mathematics, science, collaborative problem solving
Computer-based assessment for the first time in 2015……..
Focus in 2015 = science.
30 points = 1 year of schooling.
100 points = One international standard deviation.

3. 1. What are we good at?

4. 1a. Science (average scores)
> 20 points above
Between 10 and 20 points below
Country
Mean
Singapore
556*
Estonia
534*
Japan
538*
Taiwan
532*
Country
Mean
Belgium
502*
United States
496*
Denmark
Austria
495*
Poland
501*
France
Portugal
Sweden
493*
Northern Ireland
500*
Czech Republic
Norway
498*
Spain
Scotland
497*
> 10 points above
Country
Mean
Finland
531*
Vietnam
525*
Macao
529*
Hong Kong
523*
Canada
528*
Between 20 and 30 points below
Within 10 points
Country
Mean
Latvia
490*
Wales
485*
Russia
487*
Luxembourg
483*
Country
Mean
China
518
Australia
510
South Korea
516
Germany
509
New Zealand
513
Netherlands
Slovenia
Switzerland
506
England
512
Ireland
503*
….+35 other countries > 30 points below

5. 1a. Science (average scores)
Significantly above the OECD average…..

6. 1b. High-achieving pupils in science
> 20 points above
Between 10 and 20 points below
Country
90th percentile
Singapore
683*
Country
90th percentile
Macao
630*
Vietnam
624*
Belgium
629*
France
623*
United States
626*
Hong Kong
622*
Sweden
625*
Norway
> 10 points above
Country
90th percentile
Taiwan
655*
Japan
Between 20 and 30 points below
Within 10 points
Country
90th percentile
Austria
621*
Czech Republic
618*
Portugal
620*
Malta
Scotland
619*
Ireland
Poland
Denmark
617*
Northern Ireland
Luxembourg
615*
Country
P90
Finland
651*
Australia
639
China
649
Netherlands
638
Estonia
648
Slovenia
636
New Zealand
647
Germany
Canada
644
South Korea
England
642
Switzerland
632
….+38 other countries > 30 points below

7. 1c. Example question….
‘Bird migration is a seasonal large-scale movement of birds to and from their breeding grounds. Every year volunteers count migrating birds at specific locations. Scientists capture some of the birds and tag their legs with a combination of coloured rings and flags. The scientists use sightings of tagged birds together with volunteers' counts to determine the migratory routes of birds.’
Identify a factor that might make volunteers’ counts of migrating birds inaccurate, and explain how that factor will affect the count.

8. 1c. Example question

9. 2. What are we not so good at?

10. 2a. Maths (average scores)
> 20 points above
Between 10 and 20 points below
Country
Mean score
Singapore
564*
China
531*
Hong Kong
548*
South Korea
524*
Macao
544*
Switzerland
521*
Taiwan
542*
Estonia
520*
Japan
532*
Canada
516*
Country
Mean score
Latvia
482*
Wales
478*
Malta
479*
Hungary
477*
Lithuania
Slovakia
475*
> 10 points above
Between 20 and 30 points below
Country
Mean score
Netherlands
512*
Belgium
507*
Denmark
511*
Germany
506*
Finland
Poland
504*
Slovenia
510*
Ireland
Country
Mean score
Israel
470*
Croatia
464*
United States
Within 10 points
Country
Mean score
Norway
502*
Northern Ireland
493
Austria
497
Czech Republic
492
New Zealand
495
Portugal
Vietnam
Scotland
491
Russia
494
Italy
490
Sweden
Iceland
488
Australia
Spain
486*
England
Luxembourg
France
….+27 other countries > 30 points below

11. 2a. ….. Though we are not THAT bad
Same as the OECD average…..

12. 2b. Particular issue with the bottom tail in maths……
> 20 points above
Within 10 points
Country
10th percentile
Macao
439*
Ireland
400*
Singapore
436*
Switzerland
394*
Hong Kong
426*
Slovenia
Japan
416*
Poland
391*
Estonia
415*
South Korea
Denmark
405*
Norway
Finland
404*
Netherlands
390*
Taiwan
Germany
389*
Canada
Country
10th percentile
Wales
377
England
369
Sweden
376
Italy
368
New Zealand
375
Iceland
367
Belgium
374
Lithuania
365
Spain
Portugal
Czech Republic
373
France
364
Australia
371
Luxembourg
363
Austria
370
> 10 points above
Between 10 and 20 points below
Country
10th percentile
Vietnam
388*
Russia
387*
China
Scotland
382*
Northern Ireland
Latvia
Country
10th percentile
United States
355*
Croatia
351*
Hungary
Slovakia
349*
….+29 other countries > 30 points below

13. 3. Changes over time

14. 3a. Very little has happened to mean score in England since 2006

15. 3b. But things have changed in some other parts of the UK…..
Mean science scores
Scotland big decline in 2015….
Wales a consistent downwards trend…

16. 3c. Decline in performance of top 10% in science in NI/ Scotland/ Wales…..

17. 4. What do headteachers perceive to be our greatest challenges?

18. 4a. Staff shortages and physical infrastructure key concerns…
England
OECD
H10+
A lack of teaching staff
45%
29%*
31%*
Inadequate or poorly qualified teachers
22%
20%
26%
A lack of assisting staff
18%
36%*
33%*
Inadequate or poorly qualified assisting staff
12%
19%*
20%*
A lack of educational material
29%
34%
32%
Inadequate or poor quality educational material
30%
A lack of physical infrastructure
48%
37%*
Inadequate or poor quality physical infrastructure
35%*
H10 refers to 10 countries with highest average science scores….

19. Lack of educational material
4b. Lack of educational material and poor infrastructure key concerns in low-performing schools….
Lack of educational material
Poor infrastructure

20. 5. The best of the rest…..

21. 5a. Time spent studying science in school quite high in England compared to other countries……
England spend quite a lot of time studying science in school as part of their timetable per week……
…but little evidence that countries with more timetabled hours have higher average scores

22. 5b. Out of school study hours reasonably similar…..
Out-of-school study hours in England reported to be similar to most other high-performing countries…….
….other than Singapore and China
Total hours studying much lower in Finland….

23. 5c. Aspirations towards STEM careers high in England….
Aspirations towards a STEM career high in England…..
More so than in the average OECD or high- performing country…..
And more so than in 2006….