Two Approaches to Measuring “Green” Mark Doms Chief Economist Department of Commerce Association of Public Data Users, September 19, 2010

Two Approaches: Qualitative and Quantitative Qualitative: “Measuring the Green Economy” Quantitative: “U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Intensities Over Time: A Detailed Accounting for Industries, Government and Households”

Measuring the Green Economy From the 2007 Economic Census product list: –Compile list of green products and services Conserve energy and other natural resources –Promote ecological conservation –Reduce energy (fossil fuels) consumption Reduce pollution –Provide clean energy –Prevent, treat, reduce, control or measure environmental damage to air, water and soil –Provide remediation, abatement, removal, transportation, or storage of waste and contaminants also considered to reduce pollution –Calculate the total shipments and receipts for the green products and services –Compare the share of shipments and receipts to corresponding industry and employment level to estimate the number of green jobs in that industry

Measuring the Green Economy Categorizing Green Products and Services codes –Narrow v. Broad

Results: Green Jobs $371 to $516 billion in the private business economy (1% to 2%) 1.8m to 2.4m jobs Distribution of Green Jobs Across Industry Sectors, 2007

Green Manufacturing Between 2002 and 2007, the share of green shipments and green jobs in manufacturing remained fairly constant, ranging between 0.9% and 1.3%. Total manufacturing jobs fell over this period as did jobs in green manufacturing. The value of shipments per worker in green manufacturing was about equal to the value of shipments per worker in non-green industries. Green jobs are likely to pay about the same or a bit more than other jobs in the manufacturing sector.

Quantitative: Carbon Dioxide Intensity Industry Detail –Energy related carbon emissions and carbon intensity by detailed industry over time –Relative to other studies: greater industry/economy coverage, industry detail, and time series Household sector Government sector (Federal, state and local) –Direct and indirect effects (input-output) –Shared with CBO for their tax/policy analysis Broad Trends –Based on the industry detail –Examples

The Macro View Mmt of CO 2 Mmt CO 2 /$billion GDP, 07$ Energy-related CO 2 emissions continue to rise. Overall emissions intensity continues to fall.

Emissions by Major Sector CO 2 Levels, Mmt

Changes in Emission Intensity CO 2 Intensity Change, AAG (%)

Emissions and Trade We can estimate carbon emissions related to domestic production, imports, and exports (using some assumptions).