Methods for Developing Baseline Scenario and Estimating Carbon Stocks Indu K. Murthy

What is Baseline?  “The scenario that reasonably represents the anthropogenic emissions by sources of greenhouse gases or removal by sinks that would occur in the absence of the proposed project activity.” – time projection of C-stocks in project area in the absence of project activities and is the “Reference scenario” against which change is measured – C-stock changes need to be estimated for the period selected; year-0 to year-12 for demonstrating that estimated GHG emission avoided or carbon sink enhanced is real and additional benefits are not merely incidental or due to non-project factors

Baseline Definition Options  SBSTA has presented five options – Option 1: Emission by sources replaced by removal by sinks – Option 2: Includes tracking of natural emissions & removals in the absence of project activity, and non-CO 2 fluxes and emissions linked to A&R included – Option 3: Same as Option 1, but a variable or adjustable baseline suggested – Option 4: Scenario that represents net change in C-stocks & GHG emissions – Option 5: Scenario that represents the most likely prospective land use at the time of initiation of the project

Types of Baseline  Global, regional or national  Project-specific Vs. Generic  Fixed Vs. Adjustable

Baseline Activities Compared to Project Activity

Establishment of C-Stocks Under Baseline - Steps  Define land use systems and area  Stratify the land use systems  Define the project boundary and prepare a map  Select C-pools & methods for measurement & monitoring; parameters for monitoring  Develop sampling design and strategy for biomass and soil carbon estimation  Lay plots in different land use systems  Measure in the field  Analyze data for biomass/C-stock & soil carbon  Report C-stocks for different pools  Report incremental carbon benefits

Decision Matrix on Methods

Approach-1: Based on Default Values  Estimate the current land use pattern and area under each land use system  Obtain data on past or historical land use changes in the area proposed for the project  Based on current land use, historical data and proposed programs;project future land use for different periods say 5, 10, 15 and 20 years  Based on current extraction of fuelwood or timber assess any implications for land use change or biomass stock, say percent reduction in biomass stock

Contd..  Use default values from published studies / reports for projecting future C-stocks in various land use systems Estimate total C-stock in year ‘0’ for all land use systems and current areas Use future land use pattern for a given year say 5, 10 or 15 years Using default values, estimate C-stock for the projected land use pattern for a selected period, say 5 or 10 or 15 years  Difference between C-stocks considering all land use systems and area, for year ‘n’ (projected period) and year ’0’ is; Change in C-stock in the baseline or without-project scenario The value could be positive or negative, most often likely to be negative, indicating reduction in C-stocks

Approach-2: Based on Cross-Section Field Studies  Involves steps described for Approach-1, except that the C-stock values for current land use and projected land use systems are obtained from field measurements  Step 1: Select all current land use systems along with area estimates  Step 2: Estimate total C-stock for year ‘0’ for each land use system in the project area, based on measurements using plot method  Step 3: Derive future land use systems and areas based on historical data and government programs, particularly land conversion

Contd…  Step 4: Obtain future C-stock data for each projected land use system using one of the following approaches; – i) Field measurement – ii) Estimate future C-stocks using data from field measurements during year ‘0’ (starting date) and default ‘emission or sequestration factors’ and the project period (10 or 20 years)  Step 5: Using one or a combination of methods given in Step 4, estimate change in C-stock in baseline scenario. estimate total C-stock for base-year (year ‘0’) estimate total C-stock for a future project-year (say 5th or 10th or 15th year)

Approach 3: Based on Model Outputs  C-stocks for future years estimated – Using simulation models such as CO 2 -FIX and COMAP – particularly at the project development phase.

Baseline Carbon Stock Monitoring During Project Implementation Phase  Estimate area under different land use systems pre-project stage  Based on historical records of LU change and current land use pattern, project land use pattern for the project area under BSL  Establish the project boundary for each land use system, for the current and projected years  Establish ‘control plots’ (permanent plots) for each of the land use systems in project area, which will not be subjected to project activities but are likely to be subjected to conditions similar to ‘without-project scenario’, for monitoring C-stock changes [OR]

Contd…  In land use systems, which are likely to be subjected to conditions (grazing, extraction etc.) identical to without-project scenario  Monitor and estimate area under different LU systems - subjected to conversion and/or biomass extraction  Measure and estimate C-stock changes in the ‘control plots’ for the C-pools identified using ‘permanent plot’ technique  Using per hectare data on changes in C-stocks and area involved, estimate the cumulative baseline C-stock change for the selected period

Illustration of Land Use Change Under Baseline Scenario; Historical & Projected Through PRA Column (3): Area in 1997 is obtained by group discussion with local community and validated by past land use change data from records Column (5): Using area converted annually during 1997 and 2002 area is projected to 2012

Method for Estimating Net Change in C-stock under BSL Scenario  Estimate C-stock in base-year  Estimate C-stock for projected year (say year-12)  Estimation of net change in C-stock under BSL scenario = [C-stock in base-year] - [C-stock in project-year]

Estimation of AGB, BGB & Woody Litter under BSL Column (2): Area in 2002 estimated based on measurement or land survey Column (3): AGB estimated using plot method, DBH and height data and biomass equations Column (4) & (9): BGB = AGB (t/ha) * 0.26 (Conversion factor for AGB to BGB). Column (7): Area in 2012 obtained through PRA (group discussion) based on past record for 1997 to Refer to Appendix A11. Column (6) & (11): Total Biomass = (AGB + BGB + WL): area during 2002 (and 2012) Column (12): Net change in biomass including all biomass pools = [Total biomass stock in 2002] – [Total biomass stock in 2012]