Climate Change (and what we were supposed to learn in kindergarten….) Andy Long Department of Mathematics and Statistics Northern Kentucky University

Mathematicians Seek to Understand Patterns: 1, 2, …. For each of the following patterns, tell what number follows:

Mathematicians Seek to Understand Patterns: 1, 2, 3, …. 1, 2, …. For each of the following patterns, tell what number follows:

Mathematicians Seek to Understand Patterns: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, …. 1, 2, …. For each of the following patterns, tell what number follows:

Mathematicians Seek to Understand Patterns: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, …. 1, 2, 3, …. 1, 2, …. For each of the following patterns, tell what number follows:

Mathematicians Seek to Understand Patterns: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, …. 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, …. 1, 2, …. For each of the following patterns, tell what number follows:

Mathematicians Seek to Understand Patterns: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, …. 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, …. 1, 2, …. For each of the following patterns, tell what number follows:

Mathematicians Seek to Understand Patterns: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, …. 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, …. 1, 2, 4, …. 1, 2, …. For each of the following patterns, tell what number follows:

Mathematicians Seek to Understand Patterns: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, …. 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, …. 1, 2, 4, 8, …. 1, 2, …. For each of the following patterns, tell what number follows:

Mathematicians Seek to Understand Patterns: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, …. 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, …. 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, …. 1, 2, …. For each of the following patterns, tell what number follows:

Mathematicians Seek to Understand Patterns: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, …. 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, …. 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, …. 1, 2, 4, …. For each of the following patterns, tell what number follows:

Mathematicians Seek to Understand Patterns: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, …. 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, …. 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, …. 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, …. For each of the following patterns, tell what number follows:

Mathematicians Seek to Understand Patterns: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, …. 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, …. 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, …. 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, …. For each of the following patterns, tell what number follows:

Mathematicians Seek to Understand Patterns: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, …. 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, …. 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, …. 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, …. For each of the following patterns, tell what number follows: How do we characterize each of these patterns?

Graphs of these Patterns: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, …. 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, …. 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, …. 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, ….

A Pattern from the “Real World” In what year will the wiggly red curve reaches 450? (and why do we care?) Mathematicians come in two types: pure and applied. I’m an applied mathematician. I like to try to solve real-world problems….

The Keeling Data is Atmospheric CO 2 : Called “perhaps the most important environmental data set of the 20 th century.”

Why is the Red Curve Wiggling?

A little more of the history of CO 2 … (West Antarctica) Two data sets are cobbled together to create a single more complete data set. Perhaps we are convinced that the growth is more exponential than linear….

Now for a lot of the history!

1.Global Temperature 2.Total Global Carbon Emissions 3.Global Atmospheric CO 2 Clearly the trends are correlated. But are these carbon curves driving the warming? Three important time series:

A better model: a dynamic model (based on carbon emissions) In some sense, this is the smoking gun of anthropogenic (human- caused) climate change. To find out how much CO 2 is in the atmosphere, we ask how much the human race has belched out. That CO 2 is then intimately tied to the Greenhouse effect, leading to global warming, ice melt, sea level rise, etc. The rest of the emissions are either absorbed by the oceans (which are saturating, by the way), converted by plants into O 2, contribute to weathering of rock, etc.

Mathematician Joseph Fourier Discovered the Greenhouse Effect Fourier, for whom the famous “Fourier series” is named, and who discovered the Rosetta stone on a military campaign with Napoleon in Egypt, is also credited with discovering the Greenhouse Effect, around He suggested that the atmosphere serves as a blanket, heating the Earth.

Why Does this (and 450 ppm) Matter? “Decreasing CO 2 was the main cause of a cooling trend that began 50 million years ago, large scale glaciation occurring when CO 2 fell to 450 ± 100 ppm, a level that will be exceeded within decades, barring prompt policy changes.” NASA Climatologist James Hansen, 2008 (Kindergarten: because it’s our mess, and we should clean it up!)

So: we’re engaged in a Grand and Bold Experiment! Question: What happens when we take all this carbon from the ground and dump it into the air, really fast? Answer: we’ll see….

A Few Consequences of Global Climate Change: 1. As temperature rises, we expect more extreme weather conditions (drought, massive hurricanes, etc.). 2.Arctic ice has reached an all-time historic low this year, leading to changes in the jet stream. 3.We expect sea level rise: Greenland and Antarctic ice is also melting, and that ice moves land to sea. Beyond this, water expands as it is heated, and ocean temperatures are increasing -- so levels rise. If Antarctica and Greenland ice melts, sea levels will rise by upwards of 70 meters. 4.Species will disappear, as the niches to which animals are adapted disappear (e.g. Resplendent Quetzals in Costa Rica). 5.Ocean acidification and temperature rise threatens reefs (half the Great Barrier Reef gone in 30 years); corals are dying due to bleaching; shells can’t form.

The Most Fundamental Problem for Humanity "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!" (according to Upton Sinclair, , author of The Jungle):

Why Do Americans Deny? Carbon is valuable, and if you’ve got it, you want to be able to sell it to make money. – Your paycheck is dependent on getting that carbon out of the ground. – Ergo, you can’t believe that taking it out of the ground and dumping it into the air is bad (or should cost anything). It seems in America that climate change has become a political football (when it should be apolitical): – the left-wing want to keep it in the ground and convert to green energy, while – the right-wing wants to “Drill baby, drill!”

Conclusions 1.Mathematicians study patterns – whether in the interest of pure or applied mathematics. Patterns may not be obvious, and clearly we need to presume that we may have followed “the wrong path”. Applied mathematicians say “All models are wrong; some models are useful.” 2.Applied mathematicians are usually interested in solving specific problems within a context. The context here is the study of global climate change. We have data – in this case, the Keeling CO 2 data – and use that to deduce when we’re likely to hit a prescribed anticipated danger level – 450 ppm of CO 2. We also attempt to create models that capture the behavior of complicated systems. 3.Global climate change offers up “opportunities” for many students in STEM disciplines, for the foreseeable future. Species at risk, climate modeling, ocean chemistry, forest structure, invasive species, vector- borne diseases, etc. etc. etc. “A society shot through with scientific illiteracy poses a threat: repeated failure as a nation to take forward-looking actions before it’s too late.” Chris Mooney, in Unscientific America