Patrick J. Kelly Presented to the NCES/SHEEO Network Conference April 12, 2005 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems P.O. Box 9752 Boulder, Colorado (303) As America Becomes More Diverse: The Impact of Higher Education Inequality in the States

2 Why this Report? Why Now? A Collision of Several Trends Increasing value of a college degree Increasing gaps between Whites and minorities in educational attainment Shifting demographics – the least-educated populations are growing at the highest rates Inability of state systems of higher education to serve and retain minorities at nearly the rates of Whites The emergence of a global economy – the U.S. is falling behind other countries in educational attainment All at a time when many state policymakers are increasingly concerned about the development of human capital

3 Topics Included in the Presentation 1.The Changing Demography The Nation Illustrative States 2.Differences in Education Attainment and Economic Benefits Between the Race/Ethnic Populations 3.Projected Implications if Efforts to Level the Playing Field Aren’t Successful

4 Shares of U.S. Population Age by Race/Ethnicity from 1980 to 2020 *Based on 1990 Census Source:U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 1980, 1990, and 2000 Census) and U.S. Population Projections (Based on 2000 Census) ActualProjected

5 Projected Change in U.S. Population by Age and Race/Ethnicity from 2000 to 2020 (in Millions) Note: Projections based on 2000 Census are not available for Native Americans. Source: U.S. Census Bureau Ages 0-17Ages 18-24Ages 65+Ages 45-64Ages 25-44

90% of Hispanic/Latino Population Cities with Populations over 250,000 * Counties that Comprise 90% of all Hispanics/Latinos. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census Counties Where the Majority of Hispanics/Latinos Reside* and Cities with Total Populations over 250,000

90% of African-American Population Cities with Populations over 250,000 Counties Where the Majority of African-Americans Reside* and Cities with Total Populations Over 250,000 * Counties that Comprise 90% of all African-Americans. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census

8 Trends in Educational Attainment of U.S. Population Relative to the Most Educated Countries Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Percent of Young Workforce (Age 25-34) with an Associate Degree or Higher

9 Percent of U.S. Population Age with an Associate Degree or Higher by Gender and Race/Ethnicity, Note: Data not available for Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 1990 and 2000 Census) WhiteAfrican-AmericanHispanic/Latino Native American/ AK Native Asian/ Pacific Islander

10 Percent of U.S. Population Age with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher by Gender and Race/Ethnicity, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 1980, 1990 and 2000 Census) WhiteAfrican-AmericanHispanic/Latino Native American/ AK Native Asian/ Pacific Islander

11 Percent of U.S. Population Age with an Associate Degree or Higher by Gender and Race/Ethnicity, Note: Data not available for Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 1990 and 2000 Census) WhiteAfrican-AmericanHispanic/Latino Native American/ AK Native Asian/ Pacific Islander

12 Percent of U.S. Population Age with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher by Gender and Race/Ethnicity, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 1980, 1990 and 2000 Census) WhiteAfrican-AmericanHispanic/Latino Native American/ AK Native Asian/ Pacific Islander

13 Educational Attainment of U.S. Young Workforce (Age 25-34) Indexed to the Most Educated Country, 2000 Source:U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 2000 Census); Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) White African-AmericanHispanic/Latino Native American/ AK Native Asian/ Pacific Islander U.S. Index = 0.86U.S. Index = 0.77 NORWAYCANADA

14 Racial/Ethnic Representation at Each Stage of Education, 2002 (Percent) Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education; National Center for Education Statistics

15 Percent of Degree-Seeking First-Time Full-Time Freshmen Graduating Within 150% of Program Time by Race/Ethnicity, 2002 Source: National Center for Education Statistics, IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey 2002

16 Mean Earnings by Degree Level Using the Consumer Price Index (Adjusted to 2001 $) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80, Less than High School High School Diploma Some College/Associate Degree Bachelor’s Degree Graduate/Professional Degree

17 Average Annual Earnings by Race/Ethnicity and Gender of Population Age Working 35 or More Hours per Week, 1999 Source:U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 2000 Census) White African-AmericanHispanic/Latino Native American/ AK Native Asian/ Pacific Islander

18 Average Annual Earnings by Race/Ethnicity and Gender of Population Age Working 35 or More Hours per Week, 1999 Source:U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 2000 Census) White African-AmericanHispanic/Latino Native American/ AK Native Asian/ Pacific Islander

19 Difference in Earnings Between a High School Diploma and a College Degree—Population Age Working 35 or More Hours Per Week, 1999 Source:U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 2000 Census)

20 California

21 Percent of Young Workforce (Age 25-34) with an Associate Degree or Higher by Gender and Race/Ethnicity, Indexed to Top Country— California Source:U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 2000 Census); Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) White African-AmericanHispanic/Latino Native American/ AK Native Asian/ Pacific Islander U.S. Index = 0.77 CANADA

22 Projected Change in Population Age by Race/Ethnicity from 2000 to 2020—California Source:U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Projections (from 1995 to 2025) and Census 2000

23 Projected Number Change in Adults Age by Degree Level from 2000 to 2020—California Source:U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Projections and Census 2000

24 Distribution of Educational Attainment for Population Age 25-64, 2000 and Projected 2020, California Source:U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Projections (from 1995 to 2025) and Census Less than HSHigh SchoolSome CollegeAssociateBachelor'sGraduate/Prof.

25 Racial/Ethnic Representation at Each Stage of Education, 2002—California (Percent) Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education; National Center for Education Statistics

26 Projected Change in Per Capita Personal Income from 2000 to 2020—California Source:U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Projections and Census 2000

27 South Carolina

28 Percent of Young Workforce (Age 25-34) with an Associate Degree or Higher by Gender and Race/Ethnicity, Indexed to Top Country— South Carolina Source:U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 2000 Census); Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) White African-AmericanHispanic/Latino Native American/ AK Native Asian/ Pacific Islander U.S. Index = 0.77 CANADA

29 Projected Change in Population Age by Race/Ethnicity from 2000 to 2020—South Carolina Source:U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Projections (from 1995 to 2025) and Census 2000

30 Projected Number Change in Adults Age by Degree Level from 2000 to 2020—South Carolina Source:U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Projections and Census 2000

31 Racial/Ethnic Representation at Each Stage of Education, 2002—South Carolina (Percent) Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education; National Center for Education Statistics

32 Projected Change in Per Capita Personal Income from 2000 to 2020—South Carolina Source:U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Projections and Census 2000

33 Difference Between Whites and the Next Largest Racial/Ethnic Groups in the Percentage of Adults 25 to 64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher (2000) Source: U.S. Census Bureau’s Public Use Microdata Samples, Based on 2000 Census ColoradoCaliforniaConnecticutNew MexicoNew JerseyMassachusettsNew YorkAlaskaTexasRhode IslandArizonaKansasNebraskaWashingtonUtahVirginiaMontanaNorth DakotaOregonVermontIdahoSouth DakotaIllinoisMarylandSouth CarolinaNevadaWisconsinUnited StatesDelawarePennsylvaniaGeorgiaWyomingNorth CarolinaMinnesotaLouisianaIowaMissouriMichiganOhioAlabamaMississippiHawaiiIndianaOklahomaFloridaTennesseeArkansasKentuckyNew HampshireWest VirginiaMaine

34 Difference Between Whites and the Next Largest Racial/Ethnic Groups in the Percentage of Adults 25 to 64 with an Associate Degree or Higher, 2000 CaliforniaColoradoConnecticutAlaskaMassachusettsNew YorkNew MexicoRhode IslandNew JerseyNebraskaTexasArizonaWashingtonKansasUtahOregonIdahoNevadaVirginiaSouth DakotaWisconsinSouth CarolinaWyomingIowaMarylandIllinoisDelawareNorth DakotaUnited StatesNorth CarolinaVermontMontanaPennsylvaniaMinnesotaGeorgiaLouisianaMichiganMississippiMissouriOhioAlabamaFloridaIndianaHawaiiArkansasTennesseeNew HampshireOklahomaKentuckyWest VirginiaMaine Source: U.S. Census Bureau’s Public Use Microdata Samples, Based on 2000 Census

35 Projected Change * in Percent of Population Age with Less than a High School Diploma, *Projected Change is based on 2000 educational attainment by race/ethnicity and the projected changes in the population age by race/ethnicity. Source: U.S. Census 2000, U.S. Census Bureau’s 1995 Population Projections Nevada California Arizona TexasColorado Illinois Massachusetts New York New Mexico United States Rhode Island Oregon ConnecticutIdaho New JerseyKansas Washington Florida Utah Minnesota Delaware Nebraska Wisconsin Oklahoma Alaska Maryland Georgia VirginiaArkansasLouisiana Pennsylvania North Carolina Wyoming IowaHawaii Mississippi South Dakota Indiana Michigan South Carolina Montana AlabamaOhioMissouri Tennessee New Hampshire Kentucky West Virginia Vermont Maine North Dakota

36 Projected Change * in Percent of Population Age with an Associate Degree or Higher, *Projected Change is based on 2000 educational attainment by race/ethnicity and the projected changes in the population age by race/ethnicity. Source: U.S. Census 2000, U.S. Census Bureau’s 1995 Population Projections North Dakota Hawaii Maine New Hampshire West Virginia Kentucky Michigan Vermont Ohio Missouri Iowa Tennessee Alabama Pennsylvania South Carolina Alaska Montana South Dakota Indiana Mississippi North Carolina Arkansas Wisconsin Louisiana Oklahoma Wyoming Minnesota New Jersey Virginia Maryland Washington Nebraska Florida Oregon Utah Georgia Idaho United States Kansas Delaware Illinois Massachusetts New York Rhode Island Connecticut Texas Colorado Nevada Arizona California New Mexico

37 Projected Change * in Personal Income Per Capita, (In 2000 $) *Projected change in personal income is based on the annual personal income by age group (15 years and older) and race/ethnicity in 2000 and the population projections by age group and race/ethnicity in Source: U.S. Census 2000, U.S. Census Bureau’s 1995 population projections Utah VermontArkansasMaine New Hampshire West VirginiaKentuckyMississippi South Carolina Alabama Idaho Delaware North CarolinaTennesseeSouth Dakota Missouri MontanaIndianaIowa NevadaOhio WisconsinMichiganNebraskaKansasMinnesota OklahomaGeorgiaVirginiaFlorida WyomingPennsylvania North Dakota Oregon Washington Louisiana New Mexico Arizona United States Maryland Illinois Colorado Rhode Island Texas New Jersey Connecticut Hawaii Massachusetts New York Alaska California

38 Personal Income Per Capita Relative to State Total Taxable Resources Per Capita Total Personal Income Per Capita, 2002 Tax Capacity – Total Taxable Resources Per Capita, 2002 AL AK AZ AR CA CO CT DE GA HI IL IN IA KS KY LA ME MD MA MS MT NE NV NJ NY NC ND OH OK OR PA RI SC SD UT VT VA WA WI US FL ID MI MN MO NH NM TN TX WV WY $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 $45,000 $2,000$2,500$3,000$3,500$4,000$4,500$5,000 R 2 = 0.932

39 What Can We Do About It? 1.Race-Based Admissions Aren’t Very Possible 2.Accountability Measures 3.Incentives for Institutions to Enroll and Retain More Minorities 4.Others?

40 A full report and state profiles can be accessed at: