Mounting Pressures Facing the U. S

Mounting Pressures Facing the U. S
Mounting Pressures Facing the U.S. Workforce and the Increasing Need for Adult Education and Literacy Patrick J. Kelly National Center for Higher Education Management Systems

Percentage of Adults with at Least a High School Diploma by Age-Group 2004
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Korea Norway Japan Slovak Republic Czech Republic Sweden Canada Finland Switzerland Austria United States Denmark Germany New Zealand Hungary France Netherlands Belgium Ireland Australia Luxembourg Greece United Kingdom Iceland Italy Spain Poland Portugal Turkey Mexico 25 to 34 Year Olds 45 to 54 Year Olds The United States ranks 11th among OECD countries in the percentage of young adults with a high school diploma – the only country in which the younger adults are less educated than the previous generation. Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Economic Development, 2006 Education at a Glance

Percent of Adults with a High School Diploma by Age-Group – The U. S
Percent of Adults with a High School Diploma by Age-Group – The U.S. and Leading OECD Countries (2004) 97.0 95.5 94.0 93.7 93.6 91.4 90.6 89.4 88.7 87.2 87.1 85.9 92.1 90.9 92.8 87.6 86.3 86.1 84.3 88.0 57.2 86.2 82.0 84.1 86.7 80.8 83.4 75.9 83.2 77.5 89.7 33.8 77.6 65.0 64.0 82.2 70.6 72.8 58.6 78.9 69.3 86.4 20 40 60 80 100 Korea Norway Japan Slovak Republic Czech Sweden Canada Finland Switzerland Austria United States 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 Source: Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development, Education at a Glance 2005

Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Young and Older Adults – The U.S. and OECD Countries, 2004 10 20 30 40 50 60 Canada Japan Korea Sweden Belgium Ireland Norway United States Spain France Finland Australia Denmark United Kingdom Netherlands Iceland Luxembourg Switzerland New Zealand Greece Poland Germany Austria Mexico Hungary Portugal Italy Slovak Republic Czech Republic Turkey 25 to 34 45 to 54 Source: Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development, Education at a Glance 2006

Percent of Adults with an Associates Degree or Higher by Age-Group – The U.S. and Leading OECD Countries (2004) 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 60 53.3 51.6 49.1 50 47.0 45.1 42.3 41.4 40.7 40.4 40.7 39.2 39.0 39.4 40 35.7 36.2 34.5 33.5 34.1 32.7 32.9 32.3 28.9 29.4 30 27.3 25.2 23.2 21.5 19.2 20.0 20 16.4 15.7 9.7 10 Canada Japan Korea Sweden Belgium Ireland Norway United States Source: Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development, Education at a Glance 2005

Changing Workforce Needs: The Projected Percentage Employment Growth in the U.S. from 2004 to 2014 by Level of Education Required 19.0% 30.8% 18.8% 16.6% 19.6% 25.1% 17.7% 9.6% 8.7% 8.5% 11.4% 0% 7% 14% 21% 28% 35% Professional Degree Doctorate Degree Masters Degree Postsecondary Degree Plus Work Experience Bachelor's Degree Associates Degrees Postsecondary Vocational Award Work Experience in Related Occupation (No Formal Award) Long-Term On-the-Job Training (No Formal Award) Moderate-Term On-the-Job Training (No Formal Award) Short-Term On-the-Job Training (No Formal Award) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Changing Workforce Needs: The Projected Number Employment Growth in the U.S. from 2004 to 2014 by Level of Education Required (In Thousands) Short-Term On-the-Job 5,891 Training (No Formal Award) Moderate-Term On-the-Job 2,473 Training (No Formal Award) Long-Term On-the-Job 960 Training (No Formal Award) Work Experience in Related Occupation (No Formal 1,057 Award) Employment Requiring Some Level of 8,526 Postsecondary Education 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Participation in the Workforce by Level of Education, 2000 (Percent)
56.8 73.0 79.3 82.7 87.6 43.2 27.0 20.7 17.3 12.4 84.6 15.4 20 40 60 80 100 Less than HS High School Some College Associate Bachelor's Graduate/Prof. Participating in the Workforce Not Participating in the Workforce Source: Integrated Public Use Microdata Series 5% sample,

Projected Change in U.S. Population by Age and Race/Ethnicity From 2000 to 2020 (In Millions)
White African-American Hispanic /Latino Asian /Pacific Islander 15 The majority of expected growth in our young population from 2000 to 2020 is among segments of our population that have the lowest levels of education – while whites are projected to decline. 12.40 10 7.12 7.32 6.50 5.49 5 3.69 2.79 2.97 2.03 2.29 1.87 1.41 1.57 1.11 1.20 0.42 0.33 0 to 17 18 to 24 25 to 44 45 to 64 65 and Older -0.88 -1.83 -5 -6.59 Note: Projections based on the 2000 Census are not available for Native Americans -10 Source: US Census Bureau, Population Projections based on the 2000 Decennial Census

Transition and Completion Measures from High School to College Completion for the U.S. – 2004
69.3% 68.8% 31.1% 58.2% 47.8% 62.5% 24.3% 39.7% 54.5% 61.8% 30.3% 45.8% 57.4% 28.6% 36.5% 78.4% 32.7% 64.6% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Graduating from High School Within Four Years Attending College Directly Out of High School Three-Year Graduation Rate at Two-Year Colleges Six-Year Graduation Rate at Four-Year Colleges Not Available White Roughly half of Hispanics and African-Americans don’t complete high school within four years. African-American Hispanic /Latino Native American Asian /Pacific Islander Source: National Center for Education Statistics; Common Core Data, Digest of Education Statistics, and IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey

Number Changes in Educational Attainment from 2000 to 2020 as a Result of the Projected Changes in Race/Ethnicity (25 to 64 Year Olds) 7,378,402 4,834,077 3,656,845 1,096,163 2,368,743 1,382,160 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 Less than High School High School Some College Associates Bachelor’s Graduate/Professional Source: NCHEMS, As America Becomes More Diverse: The Impact of State Higher Education Inequality Given current educational attainment disparities by race/ethnicity and projected changes in the population, it is likely that the segment of our population with less than a high school diploma will grow more than any other – unless successful intervention takes place.

Target Populations Adults with no high school diplomas (or equivalent)
High school only completers unprepared for the workforce or to enter college (the best proxy we have – those whose family incomes are less than a living wage) English as a Second Language (ESL) – with less than a high school diploma (or equivalent) or just a high school diploma Incarcerated population

Percent of Adults 18 to 64 Year Old with Less than a High School Diploma (or Equivalent) 2005
19.8% 18.9% 18.8% 17.6% 17.1% 16.9% 16.6% 16.2% 15.9% 15.8% 15.5% 14.6% 14.2% 14.1% 13.8% 13.6% 13.3% 13.1% 13.0% 12.7% 12.5% 12.2% 11.7% 11.4% 11.3% 11.0% 10.8% 10.3% 10.2% 10.1% 9.9% 9.6% 9.4% 9.3% 8.9% 8.8% 8.4% 8.3% 8.1% 8.0% 7.8% 6.9% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Texas California Mississippi Nevada Kentucky Louisiana Alabama New Mexico Arizona Georgia Arkansas South Carolina Tennessee North Carolina West Virginia Oklahoma United States Florida New York Dist of Col Indiana Delaware Rhode Island Idaho Missouri Illinois Oregon Virginia Ohio Colorado Washington New Jersey Maryland Michigan Utah Kansas Pennsylvania Massachusetts Connecticut Alaska Nebraska South Dakota Wisconsin New Hampshire Iowa Maine Vermont Wyoming Hawaii Montana Minnesota North Dakota Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey

Percent of Adults 18 to 24 Year Old with Less than a High School Diploma (or Equivalent) 2005
25.2% 24.9% 24.1% 23.5% 23.1% 22.4% 22.3% 22.0% 21.5% 20.9% 20.8% 20.6% 20.5% 20.4% 19.7% 19.6% 19.5% 19.2% 19.1% 18.8% 18.7% 18.0% 17.9% 17.6% 17.5% 17.3% 17.1% 17.0% 16.9% 16.2% 16.0% 15.9% 15.8% 15.6% 15.5% 15.4% 15.3% 14.4% 11.9% 8.3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Nevada Mississippi Georgia Delaware Texas New Mexico Alaska Alabama Arizona Louisiana North Carolina South Carolina Indiana Kentucky Oklahoma Florida Washington California Arkansas United States Idaho Colorado Tennessee Oregon Missouri New York South Dakota Ohio West Virginia Wyoming Illinois New Hampshire Rhode Island Virginia Michigan Maryland Maine Dist of Col Pennsylvania Iowa Nebraska Minnesota Massachusetts New Jersey Kansas Wisconsin Connecticut Montana Utah Vermont North Dakota Hawaii Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey

Distribution (%) of Residents 18 to 64 with Less than a High School Diploma by Grade-Level Completed and State, 2005 9th to 12th Grade (No Completion) 5th to 8th Grade Less than 5th Grade No School 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Texas Iowa Utah Ohio Arizona Illinois Idaho Nevada Hawaii Oregon Florida Virginia Kansas Maine Indiana Alaska California New York Nebraska Colorado Kentucky Georgia Dist of Col Minnesota Arkansas Maryland Delaware Tennessee Louisiana Oklahoma Vermont Alabama Missouri Mississippi Wisconsin Michigan Montana Wyoming Massachusetts Rhode island New Jersey Connecticut United States New Mexico Washington North Carolina South Dakota South Carolina West Virginia North Dakota Pennsylvania New Hampshire Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey Note: Excludes 18 to 24 year olds enrolled in school

Number of Residents Ages 18 to 64 Who Speak English Poorly or Not at All by State, 2005
U.S. = 8,339,734 2,579,656 1,274,890 661,822 572,991 405,061 291,011 266,011 204,657 160,927 159,443 137,938 131,889 117,677 117,279 108,092 88,618 86,029 74,434 68,428 62,005 59,181 55,941 50,621 48,540 47,318 46,692 45,469 43,355 39,898 33,692 32,805 31,263 29,476 28,453 26,823 26,484 23,803 20,758 17,203 14,747 14,360 10,684 6,469 4,344 4,326 3,425 2,840 589 516 465 336 600,000 1,200,000 1,800,000 2,400,000 3,000,000 California Texas New York Florida Illinois Arizona New Jersey Georgia North Carolina Massachusetts Washington Colorado Pennsylvania Nevada Virginia Maryland Oregon Michigan Connecticut New Mexico Indiana Minnesota Wisconsin Utah Ohio Tennessee South Carolina Oklahoma Kansas Arkansas Missouri Rhode island Nebraska Alabama Idaho Hawaii Iowa Louisiana Kentucky Delaware Mississippi Dist of Col New Hampshire Alaska Maine South Dakota Wyoming Montana Vermont West Virginia North Dakota Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey

Number of U.S. Residents Ages 18 to 64 Who Speak English Poorly or Not at All by Level of Education Completed, 2005 3,997,270 1,883,319 2,459,145 696,499 269,852 530,690 204,856 1,500,000 3,000,000 4,500,000 Less than 9th Grade 9th to 12th Grade (No Diploma) High School Some College Associate Bachelor's Graduate or Professional U.S. = 8,339,734 Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey

Number of Residents Ages 18 to 64 with Just a High School Diploma or Less in Families with Incomes Below a Living Wage* by State, 2005 3,707,705 3,038,986 1,761,945 1,723,791 1,090,711 1,089,271 1,034,744 1,001,589 973,247 843,119 789,126 629,606 611,202 611,190 595,907 588,529 568,872 555,734 542,814 514,962 498,705 432,751 410,267 395,163 394,303 382,354 365,538 338,720 337,262 289,130 265,229 255,476 242,116 228,546 218,909 189,630 170,458 151,810 131,886 121,427 84,571 76,359 75,638 70,149 69,587 66,142 58,646 54,387 47,705 40,862 33,767 1,500,000 3,000,000 4,500,000 California Texas Florida New York Pennsylvania Ohio Illinois Georgia North Carolina Michigan Tennessee Arizona Alabama Louisiana Indiana Missouri Kentucky Virginia New Jersey South Carolina Washington Mississippi Oklahoma Massachusetts Arkansas Wisconsin Colorado Oregon Maryland Minnesota West Virginia New Mexico Nevada Iowa Kansas Connecticut Utah Idaho Nebraska Maine Montana Hawaii Rhode island New Hampshire Delaware South Dakota Alaska Dist of Col Vermont Wyoming North Dakota U.S. = 28,770,543 * 200% of Poverty Level Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey

Number of U.S. Residents Ages 18 to 64 in Families with Incomes Below a Living Wage by Education Level Completed, 2005 18,000,000 15,801,210 15,000,000 U.S. = 28,770,543 12,000,000 9,000,000 8,050,077 7,144,389 6,000,000 4,919,256 2,765,001 3,000,000 2,030,729 887,438 Less than 9th 9th to 12th High School Some College Associates Bachelor's Graduate and Grade Grade (No Diploma Professional Diploma) Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey

Proportion of Residents Ages 18 to 64 in Families with Incomes Below a Living Wage Within Each Education Attainment Category, 2005 80% 61.0% 60% 46.5% 40% 29.9% 20% 17.5% 14.5% 8.9% 5.5% 0% Less than 9th 9th to 12th High School Some College Associates Bachelor's Graduate and Grade Grade (No Diploma Professional Diploma) Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey

Adult Education and Literacy: Target Population in 2005
18 to 64 Year Olds, 2005 Target Population (Exclusive Categories) ESL: High School Diploma Only or Less – No or Poor Ability to Speak English 8,339,734 Not Prepared for College or Work: High School Diploma Only, In Families Earning Less than a Living Wage (Not ESL) 14,494,128 Target Population 42,357,936 (23.5%) 138,127,986 No High School Diploma or Equivalent (Not ESL) 19,524,074 Note: Incarcerated population not separated out. All of the above categories include incarcerated individuals. Sources: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey: Public Use Microdata Samples

Adult Education and Literacy: Target Populations as a Percentage of all 18 to 64 Year Olds by State, 2005 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Mississippi Arkansas Texas Louisiana West Virginia Alabama Kentucky New Mexico Tennessee South Carolina California Nevada Georgia Oklahoma North Carolina Arizona Florida Idaho United States Missouri Indiana Dist of Col New York Ohio Delaware Oregon Alaska Illinois Pennsylvania Rhode island Maine South Dakota Michigan Virginia Kansas Washington Montana Colorado New Jersey Utah Iowa Maryland Wyoming Nebraska Massachusetts Wisconsin Vermont Hawaii Connecticut New Hampshire Minnesota North Dakota ESL: High School Diploma Only or Less, No or Poor Ability to Speak English High School Diploma, Earning Less than a Living Wage (Not ESL) Less than a High School Diploma or Equivalent (Not ESL) 32.4 30.5 30.3 29.9 29.7 29.3 29.0 28.9 28.2 27.5 27.2 27.1 26.3 25.9 25.8 24.6 24.2 23.5 23.1 17.9 17.5 17.4 17.3 16.9 16.8 16.2 16.1 15.9 15.0 13.6 22.9 22.7 21.9 21.5 21.2 20.9 20.8 20.2 20.1 20.0 19.6 19.4 18.8 18.7 18.6 18.4 Note: Incarcerated population not separated out. All of the above categories include incarcerated individuals. Sources: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey: Public Use Microdata Samples

There were 1,525,924 prisoners in 2005
Incarceration Rate in the U.S. – Prisoners Under Federal and State Jurisdiction Per 100,000 Residents, 1980 to 2005 146 211 311 428 494 515 100 200 300 400 500 600 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 There were 1,525,924 prisoners in 2005 Source: US Bureau of Justice Statistics, US Census Bureau

Incarceration Rate by State in 2005 – Prisoners Under Federal and State Jurisdiction Per 100,000 Residents 823 798 739 725 702 700 612 564 554 544 537 531 515 505 490 488 486 482 477 472 471 467 460 446 442 419 410 406 402 400 390 375 368 352 341 340 334 330 326 314 295 292 276 258 253 218 193 181 167 153 200 600 800 1,000 Delaware Louisiana Texas Alaska Mississippi Oklahoma Alabama Arizona Connecticut South Carolina Georgia Missouri United States Florida Michigan Nevada Arkansas Hawaii Idaho California Kentucky Virginia Colorado South Dakota Tennessee North Carolina Wisconsin Maryland Wyoming Ohio Indiana Montana Oregon Illinois Pennsylvania New Mexico Rhode Island Vermont Kansas New York New Jersey Iowa West Virginia Washington Utah Nebraska North Dakota New Hampshire Minnesota Massachusetts Maine Source: US Bureau of Justice Statistics, US Census Bureau

Educational Attainment of 18 to 64 Year Olds – Total U. S
Educational Attainment of 18 to 64 Year Olds – Total U.S. Population vs. the Prison Population 4.5% 9.6% 29.3% 22.6% 34.0% 12.3% 31.6% 43.1% 10.1% 2.9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Less than 9th Grade 9th to 12th Grade, No Diploma High School Graduate (Includes Equivalency) Some College No Degree College Graduate or More Total Population Prison Population Source: US Bureau of Justice Statistics 2002 data, US Census Bureau 2005 data

Performance ABE Participation (data available only for state administered adult education programs) GED Production College Participation of Non-Traditional Adults

Enrollment in State-Administered Adult Education Programs per 1,000 Residents with Less than a High School Diploma by Age-Group, 2005 (United States) 350 278 280 210 140 107 70 22 16 to 24* 25 to 44 45 and Older * 16 to 24 year olds with no high school diploma or equivalent, not enrolled Source: US Department of Education

Enrollment of 16 to 24 Year Olds in State-Administered Adult Education Programs per 1, to 24 Year Olds with Less than a High School Diploma, 2005 788 606 533 481 446 429 405 381 380 365 361 341 339 322 321 320 308 298 296 278 272 251 245 236 231 229 226 220 219 212 208 207 206 195 192 190 186 185 181 176 153 152 150 139 118 116 109 95 92 63 200 400 600 800 Florida Connecticut Hawaii North Dakota North Carolina Arkansas Minnesota California South Carolina Vermont Utah Maine Dis of Col Tennessee Illinois Georgia Nebraska Indiana New Mexico United States Mississippi Wisconsin Delaware Louisiana Kentucky West Virginia South Dakota Alaska Rhode Island New York Wyoming Iowa Missouri Washington Montana Pennsylvania Oklahoma New Hampshire Ohio Oregon Kansas Maryland Alabama New Jersey Idaho Virginia Michigan Massachusetts Texas Colorado Arizona Nevada * 16 to 24 year olds with no high school diploma or equivalent, not enrolled Source: US Department of Education

Enrollment of 25 to 44 Year Olds in State-Administered Adult Education Programs per 1, to 44 Year Olds with Less than a High School Diploma, 2005 280 250 213 210 187 168 158 153 146 141 139 138 140 129 128 127 123 115 107 107 103 98 96 95 94 94 93 89 89 87 86 85 85 84 82 80 80 79 77 76 75 74 73 71 70 68 70 66 55 54 52 52 48 48 42 38 Utah Iowa Ohio Florida Illinois Hawaii Maine Alaska Idaho Georgia Kansas Texas Arkansas California New York Nebraska Missouri Oregon Indiana Minnesota Wisconsin Delaware Kentucky Maryland Virginia Arizona Tennessee Dis of Col Wyoming Montana Michigan Vermont Colorado Nevada Alabama Connecticut Washington New Jersey Mississippi Oklahoma Louisiana New Mexico South Carolina North Carolina United States Rhode Island South Dakota Pennsylvania North Dakota Massachusetts West Virginia New Hampshire Source: US Department of Education

GEDs Awarded Per 1,000 Adults with Less than a High School Diploma or Equivalent by Age-Group, 2005
(United States) 84.5 14.9 4.7 0.5 20 40 60 80 100 16 to 24* 25 to 34 35 to 49 50 and Older * 16 to 24 year olds with no high school diploma or equivalent, not enrolled Source: GED Testing Service, US Census Bureau 2005 ACS data

GEDs Awarded to Adults Ages 16 to 24 per 1,000 Adults Ages 16 to 24
GEDs Awarded to Adults Ages 16 to 24 per 1,000 Adults Ages 16 to 24* with Less than a High School Diploma or Equivalent, 2005 202 185 183 156 153 141 138 130 129 128 125 123 121 120 117 114 110 109 106 105 100 96 95 94 92 88 85 84 82 79 78 76 75 74 71 70 68 63 62 33 31 60 180 240 North Dakota Vermont Hawaii Montana Alaska Maine Wyoming Virginia South Dakota Utah Arkansas West Virginia Oregon Massachusetts Minnesota Kansas New York Tennessee Nebraska Wisconsin Dis of Col Colorado Idaho New Mexico Kentucky Washington Oklahoma Florida Mississippi Georgia Rhode island Indiana Pennsylvania Iowa New Hampshire United States Ohio Missouri Connecticut Illinois Alabama North Carolina Louisiana Michigan Arizona New Jersey Maryland South Carolina Nevada Texas California Delaware North Dakota = 340 * 16 to 24 year olds with no high school diploma or equivalent, not enrolled Source: GED Testing Service, US Census Bureau 2005 ACS data

GEDs Awarded to Adults Ages 25 to 34 per 1,000 Adults Ages 25 to 34 with Less than a High School Diploma or Equivalent, 2005 39 35 32 31 30 29 27 26 25 23 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 6 45 Alaska North Dakota Maine Wyoming Wisconsin South Dakota Montana Iowa Kentucky Ohio Tennessee West Virginia Oklahoma Minnesota Virginia New Hampshire Arkansas Washington Pennsylvania Missouri Indiana Idaho Mississippi Louisiana Nebraska Georgia Utah Hawaii Oregon Kansas New York Colorado New Mexico Connecticut Arizona New Jersey North Carolina Illinois United States Massachusetts Rhode island Florida Michigan Vermont Maryland Alabama South Carolina Texas Delaware Nevada Dis of Col California Source: GED Testing Service, US Census Bureau 2005 ACS data

Percent of All GEDs Awarded to High School Aged Students (16 to 18 Years Old), from 1990 to 2005
21.9 27.2 32.4 33.7 10 20 30 40% 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: GED Testing Service

Distribution (%) of GEDs Awarded by Age-Group, 1990 and 2005
1.0 6.8 14.1 13.9 25.1 12.7 9.5 6.0 6.2 2.3 0.8 3.9 13.7 16.1 10.9 25.6 11.9 6.7 4.4 4.9 1.5 0.3 5 10 15 20 25 30% 16 17 18 19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-49 50-59 60 + 1990 2005 Age Source: GED Testing Service

Change in the Percentage of All GEDs Awarded to High School Aged Students (Ages 16 to 18) by State from 1990 and 2005 33.7 25.9 25.7 25.6 22.3 21.8 20.7 20.4 20.1 19.6 19.3 18.0 15.8 15.6 14.8 14.6 13.7 13.6 13.5 13.4 12.4 12.3 11.8 11.6 10.6 10.3 10.2 9.8 9.5 9.3 9.2 9.1 8.9 7.0 6.6 5.2 4.1 1.9 -0.1 -0.5 -3.0 -21.9 -30 -20 -10 10 20 30 40 Massachusetts Indiana Kentucky North Dakota Georgia Florida Arkansas Alabama Michigan Oklahoma Montana Rhode Island Maryland Nebraska Washington Utah Vermont Missouri North Carolina Virginia Oregon Mississippi South Dakota Wisconsin United States Maine Delaware New Hampshire Iowa New York Tennessee Alaska New Jersey New Mexico Colorado Kansas South Carolina Texas Ohio Minnesota Connecticut District of Columbia Arizona Pennsylvania Wyoming Source: GED Testing Service Note: 1990 data not available for CA, HI, ID, IL, LA, NV, WV

Enrollment of 25 to 49 Year Olds as a Percentage of 25 to 49 Year Olds with a High School Diploma But No College (2005) 40.1% 24.1% 23.2% 22.0% 19.8% 18.6% 17.7% 17.0% 16.9% 16.7% 16.1% 15.1% 15.0% 14.8% 14.7% 14.5% 14.4% 14.3% 14.0% 13.9% 13.7% 13.2% 13.1% 13.0% 12.9% 12.8% 12.2% 12.0% 11.4% 11.1% 10.9% 10.7% 10.6% 10.5% 9.7% 9.6% 9.1% 9.0% 8.6% 8.5% 7.6% 7.5% 0% 15% 30% 45% Arizona Utah California New Mexico Colorado Illinois Washington North Dakota Iowa Oregon Nebraska Minnesota Kansas Maryland Alaska Idaho Michigan Oklahoma Texas United States South Dakota Wyoming North Carolina Florida Nevada Missouri Virginia Hawaii Wisconsin Kentucky Rhode Island Alabama New York Montana Indiana Georgia Arkansas Ohio Massachusetts Mississippi New Jersey Delaware Maine Connecticut South Carolina Tennessee Vermont West Virginia New Hampshire Pennsylvania Louisiana Sources: NCES, IPEDS Enrollment Survey; US Census Bureau 2005 ACS data

The Importance of the “Re-Entry” Pipeline and the Ability of the U. S
The Importance of the “Re-Entry” Pipeline and the Ability of the U.S. to Remain Globally Competitive

Current Educational Attainment, Educational Attainment in 2025 with Current Degree Production, and the Best Performing Countries in 2025 (United States) 37.4% 41.9% 45.9% 55.0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Current Percentage of Adults 25 to 64 with College Degrees (2005) Projected Percentage in 2025 with Current Annual Degree Production Production and Net Migration Percentage Needed to Reach Best-Performing Countries by 2025

How Can the U.S. Reach International Competitiveness?
Current Degree Production Combined with Population Growth and Migration, and Best Performance* on the Student Transition and Completion Measures Degrees Produced from 2005 to 2025 with Current 40,605,747 Rate of Production Additional Degrees from Population Growth 1,255,167 Additional Degrees from Net Migration of College- 7,045,932 Educated Residents Reaching Best Performance In High School 1,265,118 Graduation Rates by 2025 Performance Measures Are Cumulative and Are Based on Traditional College-Age Students Reaching Best Performance In College-Going Rates 3,270,900 by 2025 Reaching Best Performance In Rates of Degree 7,347,209 Production Per FTE Student Total Degrees Produced from 2005 to 2025 If All of 60,790,073 the Above Degrees Needed to Meet Best Performance (55%) 63,127,642 20 40 60 80 * Best performance is the average of the top three states. Millions

Even Best Performance with Traditional College-Aged Students at Each Stage of the Educational Pipeline Will Leave Gaps in More than 30 States Texas 1,333,645 Florida 893,504 California 560,688 New Jersey 320,720 Tennessee 307,956 Nevada 287,565 Louisiana 204,814 Arkansas 186,640 Kentucky 159,765 North Carolina 132,748 Arizona 122,061 Mississippi 115,120 In order to reach international competitiveness by 2025, the U.S. and 32 states can’t close the gap with even best performance with traditional college students. They must rely on the re-entry pipeline – getting older adults back into the education system and on track to attaining college degrees. Ohio 114,375 South Carolina 112,681 Alabama 110,495 West Virginia 74,752 Alaska 65,853 Oklahoma 62,332 Oregon 53,995 Michigan 53,574 New Mexico 47,420 Wisconsin 44,757 Maine 39,436 Idaho 37,706 Montana 34,547 Hawaii 28,659 Georgia 25,326 Wyoming 24,741 Maryland 23,542 Connecticut 10,875 Missouri 8,898 Indiana 2,788 300,000 600,000 900,000 1,200,000 1,500,000

The Benefits

Average Personal Income of 25 to 64 Year Olds by Level of Education Completed, 2005
$91,797 $107,353 $66,919 $54,532 $37,716 $34,644 $27,367 $22,319 $19,095 $18,031 $17,189 $15,840 $14,894 $15,531 $0 $30,000 $60,000 $90,000 $120,000 Doctorate degree Professional degree Masters degree Bachelors degree Associate degree Some college, no degree High school graduate, or GED 12th grade, no diploma 11th grade 10th grade 9th grade 5th-8th grade 1st-4th grade No school completed Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey

No school completed If these residents were to complete high school or equivalent, and the additional earnings associated it, the U.S. would experience a $191 billion increase in personal income 1st-4th grade 5th-8th grade 9th grade 10th grade 11th grade 12th grade, no diploma High school graduate, or GED $27,367 Some college, no degree $34,644 Associate degree $37,716 Bachelors degree $54,532 Masters degree $66,919 Professional degree $107,353 Doctorate degree $91,797 $0 $30,000 $60,000 $90,000 $120,000 Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey

No school completed If these residents were to complete an associates degree, and the additional earnings associated it, the U.S. would experience a $848 billion increase in personal income 1st-4th grade 5th-8th grade 9th grade 10th grade 11th grade 12th grade, no diploma High school graduate, or GED Some college, no degree $34,644 Associate degree $37,716 Bachelors degree $54,532 Masters degree $66,919 Professional degree $107,353 Doctorate degree $91,797 $0 $30,000 $60,000 $90,000 $120,000 Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey

Personal Income Per Capita, 2003 Actual Tax Revenues Per Capita, 2003
The Relationship Between Personal Income and Tax Revenues $45,000 CT 40,000 Correlation = 0.84 MA NJ MD NY 35,000 NH CO MN VA DE IL Personal Income Per Capita, 2003 AK CA WA RI WY NV PA US MI NE HI 30,000 FL VT WI KS OH MO SD OR TX ND IN GA TN IA ME NC AZ OK AL MT SC KY LA UT 25,000 ID NM AR WV MS 20,000 Actual Tax Revenues Per Capita, 2003 $2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

State Health Index, United Health Foundation
The Relationship Between Education and Health State Health Index, United Health Foundation Correlation = 0.76 AK AZ AR DE GA HI IL IN IA KS LA ME MD MA MT NE NV NJ NY NC ND OH OK OR PA RI SC SD VT VA WA US AL CA CO CT FL ID KY MI MN MS MO NH NM TN TX UT WV WI WY 80 85 90 95 -25 25 Percent of Adults with a High School Diploma or Higher

Summary For the first time in history, the U.S. is losing ground to other countries in educational attainment of its workforce Increasing demand for higher levels of education within our own workforce – particularly in occupations that pay a living wage Shifting demographics – within our workforce, race/ethnic populations that are growing at the highest rates are the least-educated, the most likely to drop out of high school, and the least successful in college. Large Target Populations that Are Underserved We are leaving a large segment of this population behind Improvements in adult education and literacy are vital for the U.S. to remain competitive There are tangible benefits to increasing the levels of education of those who fell out of the education system.

Mounting Pressures Facing the U. S

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