MTB 09/27/05 The Future of the Future. Mark T. Brown September 27, 2005

MTB 09/27/05 Connect threads... INTELLECTUAL TAPESTRY - something that is felt to resemble a tapestry in its complexity;

MTB 09/27/05 "All my means are sane, my motive and object mad.” Herman Melville's Captain Ahab Thread #1: Whats Education For? courtesy of David Orr

MTB 09/27/05 If today is like any other day... We will loose… 116 mi 2 Rainforest 72 mi 2 to encroaching deserts species

MTB 09/27/05 The human population will increase by 250,000 We will add 2,700 tons of CFC’s 15 million tons CO 2 Erode 75 million tons of top soil If today is like any other day...

MTB 09/27/05 By years end... The area of rainforest lost will equal an area the size of Washington State Expanding deserts will have grown by an area equal to the state of West Virginia Global population will have increased by 90,000,000 We will have lost 20% of the species that existed on the planet in 1900

MTB 09/27/05 This is not the work of ignorant people… It is, rather, largely the result of the work of the “most highly educated” workforce in the history of humankind, people with…. BAs….. BSs……. MEs……. Ph.Ds…... LLBs…... MBAs, etc.

MTB 09/27/05 What is wrong?... It is the result of an education system that has failed us….. An education that stresses Abstraction not consciousness, Answers instead of questions, Reductionism instead of holism

MTB 09/27/05 “Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one.” Albert Einstein Thread #2: competing paradigms

MTB 09/27/05 Two overlapping and incompatible dichotomies… Matter/energy ~ Money Humanity ~ Nature

MTB 09/27/05 Matter-energy and the Monetary Culture Our present industrial civilization is handicapped by the coexistence of two incompatible intellectual systems:  the accumulated knowledge of the last four centuries of the properties and interrelationships of matter and energy; and  the associated monetary culture which has evolved from folkways of prehistoric origin.

MTB 09/27/05 Wealth stems from… Money Resources

MTB 09/27/05 Humanity and Nature Civilization is further handicapped by the existence of an incompatible metaphysical construct:  Humanity is not natural, the artifacts of humanity are “man-made” VS..  Nature is everything, including humanity.

MTB 09/27/05 Physical Laws of the Universe…… Don’t apply here… Only apply here…

MTB 09/27/05 To illustrate... Thought patterns color reality…

MTB 09/27/05 How often do you say…what a beautiful SUNRISE?

MTB 09/27/05 Or that you’re going upstairs…

MTB 09/27/05 we know the sun does not rise or set… …and there is no such thing as up or down. In reality…

MTB 09/27/05 These world views lead to …. Four somewhat overlapping, incompatible paradigms

MTB 09/27/05 Humanity Nature MoneyEnergy Neoclassical Economics Biophysical SciencesEcological Economics Technocracy

MTB 09/27/05 Economics can be a beautiful instrument when applied in its original meaning: to put the house (oikos) of mankind in order. Herman Daly Economics…

MTB 09/27/05 Economics… The money economy is only a part of the picture…

MTB 09/27/05 Thread #3: A Growth Ethic… “There are no great limits to growth because there are no limits of human intelligence, imagination, and wonder.” (Ronald Reagan 40th president of US) “Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell.” - Edward Abbey

MTB 09/27/05

Doubling Time = 70/n years Growth rateD time 3%24 yrs 5%14 yrs 7%10 yrs 10% 7 yrs Exponential Growth… The failure to understand the concept of exponential growth by those “in charge” may be the single biggest problem we face…

MTB 09/27/05 Our ability and inclination to enrich the present at the expense of the future, and of other species, is as real and sinful as our tendency to further enrich the wealthy at the expense of the poor. Herman Daly Exponential Growth…

MTB 09/27/05 “Like ice in a fire, something for nothing you’ll never acquire.” Mr. Ryan (bulldog) Thread #4: Net Energy

MTB 09/27/05 When the energy cost of recovering a barrel of oil becomes greater than the energy content of the oil, production will cease, no matter what the monetary price may be. Net Energy… energy costs of obtaining energy

MTB 09/27/05 Net Energy… We believe that to maintain society’s current level of infrastructure and information processing, a net energy of about 4/1 is required.

MTB 09/27/05 Net Energy… conventional sources All declining…

MTB 09/27/05 Net Energy… so called renewable sources

MTB 09/27/05 Net Energy… Net energy of biomass is barely 1/1

MTB 09/27/05 Net Energy…

MTB 09/27/05 Net Energy… of the IRAQ invasion…

MTB 09/27/05

“Humankind cannot stand very much reality.” T.S. Elliot Thread #5: M.King Hubbert’s Bilp

MTB 09/27/05 “My analyses are based upon the simple fundamental geologic fact that initially there was only a fixed and finite amount of oil in the ground, and that, as exploitation proceeds, the amount of oil remaining diminishes monotonically.” M.King Hubbert Peak Oil…

MTB 09/27/05 Peak Oil…

MTB 09/27/05 Peak Oil… New discoveries are not keeping pace with demand

MTB 09/27/05 No matter how you cut it… the hydrocarbon age is about over. Alaska United States World

MTB 09/27/05 Peak Oil… Global politics for the next two decades…

MTB 09/27/05 Thread #6: Population “The morality of an act is a function of the state of the system at the time it is performed.” ( J. Fletcher, Situation Ethics )

MTB 09/27/05 Population… issues are not so simple anymore

MTB 09/27/05 Global Population… carrying capacity

MTB 09/27/05 Global Population… Migration and urbanization Brain drain, globalization, coastal crowding, xenophobia and discrimination, dying rural towns…

MTB 09/27/05 70 percent of the world's poor rely on the land for income and subsistence. Global Population… and environment

MTB 09/27/05 Global Population… and resources Humans currently consume 20 percent more natural resources than the earth can produce. The impact of an average North American is double that of a European, and seven times that of the average Asian or African. (WWF, October 2004)

MTB 09/27/05 Thread #7: Models of Humanity and Nature The sciences do not try to explain, they hardly even try to interpret, they mainly make models which, describe observed phenomena… Johann Von Neumann

MTB 09/27/05 Macroscopic Mini-models… Used to overview theory principles, and concepts… and to test hypotheses regarding how things work. Models as visions…

MTB 09/27/05 Models as visions… A vision of the history of humanity modeled as a succession of epochs The Information Era

MTB 09/27/05 Beyond the Limits by Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, and Jorgen Randers, New York: Doubleday Press, Models as visions…

MTB 09/27/05 Forester, J World Dynamics. MIT Press, Cambridge. Models as visions…

MTB 09/27/05 Duncan, R.C. World Energy Production, Population Growth, and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge. Population and Environment, May-June 2001, v. 22, n. 5. Models as visions… C 3 functions: Communication, Computation, and Control

MTB 09/27/05 The Tapestry… OK, so lets put it all together… Leslie White’s Law “Other factors remaining constant, culture evolves as the amount of energy harnessed per capita per year is increased…”

MTB 09/27/05 The Tapestry… There’s a good chance that the energy with which we power our technological civilization is peaking, and there does not appear to be alternatives. (prudence would suggest that even if you believe in a technological fix, we should have a backup plan …just in case) …So, then do we de-evolve with less energy?

MTB 09/27/05 The Tapestry… After the peak… Thoughts for transition and descent…

MTB 09/27/05 The Tapestry… Environment 1.We must treat the environment not as a dumping ground, but the source of all life. 2.Recycle should become the main strategy for dealing with “wastes” 3.We will need to rebuild natural capital (forests, soils, wetlands and water) 4.Discontinue ecological bigotry that calls some species exotic, and undesirable..Use all of the earth’s biodiversity in rebuilding global natural capital.

MTB 09/27/05 The Tapestry… Religion 1.Religion must stress the larger scale issues such as environment, capitalism, globalization, community, population growth, war 2.Service and sacrifice must replace “rugged individualism” and “growth is progress” ethic 3.We will need to include nature and the earth's energy systems in our religious ethic. 4. Sharing and a code of attitudes that includes pluralistic respect for other faiths will be important

MTB 09/27/05 The Tapestry… Work 1.Everyone needs to feel part of the society with sufficient useful work contributing to productivity. 2.Cut wages across the board before laying off workers 3. Institute minimum and maximum wage reform 4. Achieve full employment of the young and old through sliding pay scales 5. Tele-commuting where possible

MTB 09/27/05 The Tapestry… Information 1.TV needs moderation and focus on broader issues with some optimal entertainment 2.TV is the global “campfire” and as such needs to focus on shared ideas, purposes, and ethics. 3. Universities will need to once again become society’s storehouse of information, and its generation, testing, and selecting. 4. How much information is appropriate?

MTB 09/27/05 The Tapestry… Education 1. All education is environmental education, systems education is a must. 2. A common core of knowledge in science, arts, civics, and culture with flexibility built in for the rest. 3. Orient schools to stress different life themes, not everyone needs to go to college 4. With reduced energy comes a welcomed reduction in the technology and “big sports” of education… smaller schools can result.

MTB 09/27/05 “As sometimes attributed to past cultures, people may find glory in being an agent of the Earth. It remains to be seen whether the social mechanisms will be conscious, logical, emotional, ritualistic, regimented, or by some means we can’t imagine.” H.T. Odum, 2001