D-1 SARS-like Illness in Southeastern Europe

D-2 Scenario 2003 promises to be a banner year in the tourist trade throughout Southeastern Europe. Of particular note is the reinvigoration of the overland travel with the increasing stability of the region June : A bus load of 63 tourists and returning workers primarily from Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania and Greece are detained by officials from Austria at the Villach border crossing when 6 passengers on the bus show signs of severe illness. The bus was en route from Frankfurt to Istanbul

D : The 6 with the flu and pneumonia symptoms are taken to a local hospital and placed in isolation. Officials are debating what steps should be taken with the remaining 57 passengers and the driver 1400: Austrian medical officials’ initial opinion is that the victims are suffering from a “SARS Like” illness, and order the bus and its occupants to be quarantined 1700: As news of the Villach incident reaches the Center for Disease Control, they compile a timeline review of events possibly related over the past 48 hours:

D-4 Croatia 11 foreign visitors in the split area have reported to doctors or hospitals with flu like symptoms. One has died. Macedonia 2 individual tourists driving through Macedonia checked into the emergency room of a hospital in the capital complaining of severe respiratory problems within the past 12 hours. One is critically ill. Slovenia A Lake Bled hotel reported to health officials that one tourist and one hotel employee required immediate medical attention for an acute flu like illness

D-5 Bulgaria A chartered plane of German tourists in Varna arrived late yesterday evening. 16 of the 109 passengers were ill with flu like symptoms, 4 seriously. An action plan was being put into place to control the situation. Romania An inter-city train on its way to Istanbul from western Europe had within the past few hours delayed its onward departure from Bucharest after “dozens” of passengers were reported ill. Albania A ferry from Italy reported upon its arrival in Albania this morning a number of seriously ill individuals. Some had been discharged, others remained in the infirmary.

D : The media has sensed there might be a serious issue involved. Preliminary reports of a speculative nature are being aired on the evening news in several countries On June 7 th a European Cup football match between Greece and Austria is expected to draw large crowds In addition to dozens of charter flights two caravans of buses and cars are scheduled to depart Vienna at 0700 on June 5 th to attend the match On June 8 th Turkey meets the U.K. in a challenge match in Istanbul. Dozens of charter flights are expected to arrive from England on the 7 th