Global warming in an unequal world : A global deal for effective action Sunita Narain Commonwealth Finance Ministers Meeting, Georgetown, Guyana, October

The crisis: the science of climate change 1.Climate change is real ; it is already dangerous; heading towards catastrophe. 2.Climate change is urgent ; it needs us to act quickly and drastically; 3.But how? Climate change is linked to economic growth. Can we re-invent growth?

Rapid increase of carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere in last 150 years – from 280 ppm to 370 ppm.

Hockey stick science: Since 1900, climate warmed by 0.8ºC. Past 10 year temperature highest since records started

Is anthropogenic : caused by burning of fossil fuel; for our energy needs

The challenge: what is the least risky target? 1.If annual emissions remain at todays level, greenhouse gas levels would be close to 550 ppm by This would mean temperature increase of 3- 5°C 3.The difference in temperature between the last ice age (3 million years ago) and now is 5°C 4.The 2°C target is feasible; but still dangerous

Business as usual is 5°C; even if we stabilise at current levels; increase is dangerous

Impacts: devastation or can we cope? 1.Snow cover will contract. Indian glaciers are beginning to melt fast 2.Hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will increase.. (floods and droughts) 3.Tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense 4.Sea levels are expected to increase – intense debate on how high will this be; and by when. But can we wait????

Insurance industry understands risk: economic losses 1.Katrina: $125 billion; insured US$60 billion; 2.Mumbai floods 2005: (800 mm of rain in 12 hours): US$ 5 b; insured US$ 800 million; 3.Oman cyclone June 2007: US$ 4 b; insured US$ 650 million; 4.UK floods June-July 2007: US$ 8 b; insured US$ 6 b; Losses cannot be measured in economic terms only. Human; Existential; Survival

3-truths: Climate change political and economic challenge 1.Is related to economic growth. No one has built a low carbon economy (as yet) 2.Is about sharing growth between nations and between people. The rich must reduce so that the poor can grow. Create ecological space. 3.Is about cooperation. If the rich emitted yesterday, the emerging rich world will do today. Cooperation demands equity and fairness. It is a pre-requisite for an effective climate agreement.

CO2 emissions linked to energy and linked to economic growth

Drastic reduction needed: For 450 ppm (2°C) reduce 85% by 2050

The gap : the challenge to re-invent what we mean by growth?

United States 21.13% Europe 16.58% Japan 4.36% Rest of the world 57.93% Sharing the ecological and economic space: CO2 emissions from fossil fuels in 2005

Historical emissions: A tonne of CO2 emitted in 1850 same value as tonne of CO2 emitted in 2005 Natural debt of nations: will it be paid or written off? At what cost?

Canada United States Brazil Guyana Germany Netherlands United Kingdom Russia Kenya South Africa Tanzania Australia Bangladesh China India Japan Nepal New Zealand Vanuatu Per capita CO2: cannot freeze global inequity

Canada United States Brazil Guyana Germany Netherlands United Kingdom Russia Kenya South Africa Tanzania Australia Bangladesh China India Japan Nepal New Zealand Vanuatu World average 4 tonnes per person per year Can sustain 2 tonnes per person per year

Canada United States Brazil Guyana Germany Netherlands United Kingdom Russia Kenya South Africa Tanzania Australia Bangladesh China India Japan Nepal New Zealand Vanuatu Who?

Canada United States Brazil Guyana Germany Netherlands United Kingdom Russia Kenya South Africa Tanzania Australia Bangladesh China India Japan Nepal New Zealand Vanuatu Who?

Canada United States Brazil Guyana Germany Netherlands United Kingdom Russia Kenya South Africa Tanzania Australia Bangladesh China India Japan Nepal New Zealand Vanuatu Reduce – to converge

Canada United States Brazil Guyana Germany Netherlands United Kingdom Russia Kenya South Africa Tanzania Australia Bangladesh China India Japan Nepal New Zealand Vanuatu Increase to converge Climate justice

1 US citizen = 107 Bangladeshis 134 Bhutanese 19 Indians 269 Nepalese Unacceptable. Need to secure ecological space for growth

2007: High on rhetoric. Low on action 1.Need urgent action. We are running out of time. Need deep cuts: 50-80% over 1990 levels by Kyoto agreed to small change – 7% cuts 3.Even that failed. US and Australia walked out. EU emissions increased last year 4.Pressure on China and India..

Decreased 3% only because of decrease of economies under transition. Rich have increased

Only UK and Germany have cut. But beginning to increase again. Gas and reunification impact fading…

Big words and small change

No energy transition made Little to reduce energy emissions

Transport emissions up Energy industry emissions up Manufacturing down. Exported problem?

No more kindergarten approach Framework for cooperation: 1.Industrialised countries to take deep cuts (30% by 2020) minimum. US and Australia must join 2.Emerging rich and rest to participate, not by taking legally binding cuts but through a strategy to avoid future emissions. What is the framework for low-carbon growth strategy?

The avoid-leapfrog strategy 1996: Clean air campaign in Delhi : a. Advanced emission norms by 8 years – went from Euro-0 to Euro-II. b. Cleaned up quality of fuel (10,000 ppm to 500 ppm) c. Introduced compressed natural gas – 100,000 vehicles drive in Delhi on gas

Stabilised emissions: but challenges remain

Can change pathway to growth A KEY QUESTION Do we have to go through the same stages of environmental management that the West went through or can we leapfrog? Pre-Euro I Poor diesel Euro I Improved diesel Euro II Natural gas Euro III Hydrogen Euro IV

The car has marginalised bus, not replaced it Can avoid pollution, congestion and emissions Can re-invent mobility Delhi placing order for 6,000 new buses; building bus rapid transport corridor; building metro; investing in light rail.. Finance ministers can reduce taxes on buses, increase on cars…

Options exist: re-invent growth. Avoid pollution 1.We can build clean coal power stations 2.Can build distributed power grid, based on renewable… 3.18% emissions from land use changes. Can protect forests; Can plant new forests..

In our world; forests are habitats of people. Forests have economic value. Protecting forests needs paying for services; paying local communities to protect forests; benefit from its resources Countries cannot keep forests without getting economic value Costs for carbon storage peanuts..

Options but.. The South will do what North has done 1.Will first get rich; add to pollution; then invest in cleaning it up 2.Will cut forests and convert to agriculture and then depress the price of food A low-carbon growth strategy will cost money. The South will need to invest in efficiency, pollution control and protecting forests as forests This needs change in global framework

CDM instrument to make this transition. But designed to fail 1.Aim to get cheap emission reduction has lead to projects which do little. Low hanging fruits. Cannot pay for real change. 2.Designed for ineffective action – additional to policy – leads to nothing 3.Designed for mutual self-interest between private sector; not public interest; Has become the Cheap Convoluted Corrupt Development Mechanism

High end technology will cost money

No rocket science needed 1.Need framework for cooperation 2.Need framework that can push for energy transformation Best option is to create per capita emission rights; Use the rights to create global create carbon market; Use the market (with rules for public good) to make the transition into low carbon economies

Finance ministers challenge 1.Emissions linked to economic growth 2.Climate change will devastate economies 3.Need to find solutions to pay for high- end energy transformation – reform of CDM or carbon market 4.Need to share benefits of growth equitably

Not acceptable

Politics for future Cannot freeze global inequity; Cannot survive climate change – rich or poor; Climate is not about the failure of the market; It is about our failure to make the markets work for public and common good… It is about politics..

Challenge to Commonwealth 1.Climate change is about the wealth of commons; 2.It is about setting rules for living together on one Earth 3.Commonwealth brings all together – rich and poor; emerging countries and small island nations.. 4.Can lead the next negotiations. Can provide the answers the world needs desperately

Leadership for our common world 1.Industrialised countries to set deep and real cuts – UK, Australia, Canada 2.To pay for adaptation costs – Build global consensus on paying these crippling costs 3.To set framework for participation by rest of the world – built on equity and designed for real transition

Otherwise road to common hell