Final Review Unit 2 Unit 2: Elections and Voter Behavior

Public Opinion Is the measure of how citizens feel about issues Polls measure – Saliency: the degree to which it is important to a citizen or group – Intensity: How strongly people feel about an issue; if high, a group has more power – Stability: Whether or not the opinion can be changed

Polls Measure Public Opinion Polls measure opinions of a smaller sample of the population and extrapolate results Random sampling- allows for representative cross- section (everyone in group/sample has same likelihood of being polled) Exit Polls- randomly poll voters who are leaving polling place 1500 is usual sample size for accuracy of nation-wide poll Sampling error- tells how far off the poll results may be

Where does Public Opinion come from? Political socialization- The acquisition of one’s political attitudes/beliefs that influence voting and participation – Come from family, location, schools, churches, mass media

Political Ideology Political Ideology-a coherent set of thoughts about politics and government – Conservatives Individuals should be responsible for their own well-being without government assistance Oppose government interference in private sector Support laissez-faire economics Socially conservative – Liberals Government should remedy social and economic injustices Support affirmative action programs Separation of church and state Socially liberal – Moderates Make up the largest portion of American public (about half) Do not have a coherent ideology; apply common sense

Ideology and Political Behavior Race / ethnicity – Racial groups who are also low income are more liberal; Cuban Am. are conservative, however Religion – Jews and African American Protestants are most liberal; Catholics are liberal but socially conservative; white Protestants and evangelicals are conservative Gender – Women tend to be more liberal than men and are more likely to vote Democrat (gender gap). Income level – Higher income tend to be socially liberal but fiscally conservative; poorer income tend to be conservative except on social welfare policy Region – Urban are more liberal than rural voters – South is conservative; unionized Midwest more liberal – West is mixed / polarized

Public Opinion and Mass Media News media include broadcast news on t.v., radio and web; newspapers, magazines and talk radio Public Agenda- the most important role media play is in setting the public agenda – Done by deciding which news to cover and which to ignore – Is the media biased? – Does the media have the power to alter public opinion? Sometimes…Vietnam War

Media Bias No study has conclusively established media bias Most reporters in media tend to hold more liberal views than conservative Commercial concerns reinforce the trend toward objectivity Bias in terms of sources, story coverage (or lack of), intensity of coverage and in superficiality of coverage exist

Elections Federal elections take place every two years (mid term elections) Each election gives voters chance to vote in House of Representatives Every other election is for President (four years/ presidential election) 1/3 of Senators are up for election every two years Incumbents have an advantage – In the House, incumbents running for reelection win 90% of the time (gerrymandering and weak opponents help) – Senate incumbents also have an advantage but not as great as House (usually draw better competition and state-wide election is tougher)

Election Cycle Elections consist of two phases – Nominations / primaries (chose party candidate) – General election (choose office holder) Primaries – Most states (39) use them to select nominees; New Hampshire is first – Caucus is a variation—a series of meetings and votes; Iowa is first

Primaries Closed Primary – Most common – Voting is restricted to registered party members – Leaves Independent voters out Open primary – Voters may vote only in one party’s primary, but may choose which – Critics argue that voters can sabotage their opponents’ primaries by crossing party lines to vote for a weak candidate Blanket primary – Use the same procedures as in general election—may vote for one candidate per office of either party.

Campaign Finance Raising money for media, outreach, travel and polling is key to campaign success Some have tried to limit election spending because they believe the current practices may have a corrupting effect Federal matching funding is available to candidates who agree to obey spending limits

Campaign Finance McCain-Feingold (Bipartisan Campaign Reform) Act set limits on individual contributions – To campaigns at $2300 for candidate, – To party at $28,500 – To PAC at $5000 Buckley v. Valeo (1976) – Supreme Court decided that mandatory spending limits on campaigns violate candidates’ First Amendment rights to free expression

Campaign Finance Today Citizens United v. Federal Elections Commission (2010) – Landmark Supreme Court case – Court rules that the 1 st A prohibits gov’t from restricting independent political expenditures by corporations and unions. – Super PACs are now created to fund campaigns Super PACs – Super PACs may not make contributions to candidate campaigns or parties – Must do any political spending independently of the campaigns. – Can raise funds from corporations, unions and other groups, and from individuals, without legal limits.

Primary Season Earliest primary takes place in New Hampshire Earliest caucus is in Iowa Frontloading-tendency of states to move their primaries up in the calendar year as earliest get more media attention and have more significance – Puts increased pressure on candidates to succeed early on Super Tuesday- many states hold a primary on the same day

National Conventions Held to confirm their nominee NOT to decide on the nominee (brokered convention) Main purpose is to unify the party following the attack mode of primaries Party platform—goals and priorities of party and recommended actions are stated in the National Convention

Electoral College Presidential election as written in Constitution Founders deliberately removed selection from the people directly 270 is majority needed to win 538 total electoral votes (states gets their # in Congress) Winner-take-all in most states means candidates focus on largest states and swing states (states where race is very close/ toss-up) Greatest flaws— – Winner of popular vote can lose in electoral college (Bush/Gore race in 2000) – Small states have disproportionate say