Past, Present, and Probable Future of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Dr. Robert MacKay

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Presentation transcript:

Past, Present, and Probable Future of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Dr. Robert MacKay

Acknowledgement Aslam Khalil, PSU Physics Clark College

Outline Introduction/ Motivation Natural and Anthropogenic sources of change Recent temperature record Past CO2 Present CO2 A simple mathematical/conceptual model Future projections Future emissions Discussion

Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Forcing

No Atmosphere

Todays Atmosphere

John Tyndall ~1867 The aqueous vapour constitutes a local dam, by which the temperature at the earth's surface is deepened; the dam, however, finally overflows, and we give to space all that we receive from the sun.

John Tyndall ~1867 Aqueous vapour is a blanket more necessary to the vegetable life of England than clothing is to man. Remove for a single summer-night the aqueous vapour from the air which overspreads this country, and you would assuredly destroy every plant capable of being destroyed by a freezing temperature. The warmth of our fields and gardens would pour itself unrequited into space, and the sun would rise upon an island held fast in the iron grip of frost.

Greenhouse Gases Water Vapor Carbon Dioxide Ozone Methane Nitrous Oxide Chlorofluorocarbons

Cooling to offset warming

Carbon Dioxide in Prehistoric times

Vostok Ice Core data

faster-than-ever.html

US Carbon emissions through 2004

Chinas carbon emission through 2004

Russias carbon emission through 2004

Indias carbon emission through 2004

Fossil Fuel Reserves ~40 yrs Oil ~80 yrs Natural gas ~200 years coal

World Population

Fossil Fuel Reserves Oil

Fossil Fuel Reserves Natural Gas

Fossil Fuel Reserves coal