N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Mark Tew Chief, Marine and Coastal Weather Services Branch Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services x 125 Marine and Tropical Services Update NWS Partners Meeting - August 2013

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Marine Program Overview Expanding the National Digital Forecast Database into the Offshore and High Seas Experimental National Marine Weather Web Portal Experimental Beach Hazards Statement NWS Partners Meeting - August 2013

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Expanding the National Digital Forecast Database into the Offshore & High Seas -Four variables to begin: wind, wind gust, wave height and marine hazards -Joins the new interactive graphical display -Will soon be joined by grids further north and then in Hawaii and Alaska NWS Partners Meeting - August 2013

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Experimental National Marine Weather Web Portal: preview.weather.gov/mwp preview.weather.gov/mwp NWS Partners Meeting - August 2013

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Experimental Beach Hazards Statement New segment & VTEC code (BH.S) in the NWS Coastal Hazard Message (CFW) Provides information about hazards affecting people in coastal/beach areas and in the surf zone –Locally significant weather-related hazards issued from all participating test offices –Ecological-related hazards at select offices (partnership w/NOAA LOs or gov’t agencies) Test began May 2012: 6 WFOs Expanded May 2013: 10 more WFOs (16 total) Feedback: weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=chmbhs NWS Partners Meeting - August 2013

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Tropical Program Overview 2013 Changes Post-tropical cyclone policy change Experimental Probabilistic Hurricane Storm Surge With Tide Experimental Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics Experimental Extended Tropical Weather Outlook Changes On The Way Storm Surge - Inundation Graphic - Storm Surge Watch/Warning Extended Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Watch/Warning Process (TCV, HLS) NWS Partners Meeting - August 2013

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Changes implemented for 2013 “NHC advisory products will continue if a post-tropical cyclone continues to pose a significant threat to life and property and if the transfer of responsibility to another office would result in an unacceptable discontinuity of service.” -Modifies definitions for tropical cyclone watches and warnings -Full suite of NHC and WFO products continue The NHC Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) product for the Atlantic and east Pacific basins will experimentally include probabilistic information, in 10-percent increments, about a system’s potential for developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 5 days. The extended forecast and discussion will be embedded within the current TWO text product on a disturbance-by-disturbance basis. NWS Partners Meeting - August 2013

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Experimental Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics Graphics Provides potential impacts of the 4 main hazards from tropical cyclones: -Wind -Coastal flooding -Inland flooding -Tornadoes Some offices also issue a marine hazards and combined impact graphic Working with social scientist on how to more effectively communicate the impacts New for Mosaic of multiple WFOs Operational in NWS Partners Meeting - August 2013

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Experimental Probabilistic Hurricane Storm Surge With Tide New storm surge website (P-Surge 2.0). Enhanced by: Incorporating tide Providing both above ground and above datum products Creating probability products at 6 hour intervals for above ground Incorporating the latest North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD88) Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricane (SLOSH) basins Tropical Storm Andrea Advisory 2 Storm Surge >= 2 feet NWS Partners Meeting - August 2013

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Storm Surge Inundation Graphic The entire graphic including colors, labels, thresholds, wording – was tested extensively by social scientists with focus groups Implementation of experimental tropical cyclone inundation graphic in 2014 Lays the foundation for extra-tropical inundation graphic (beyond 2015) NWS Partners Meeting - August 2013

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Storm Surge Watch/Warning NWS is developing a collaborative process between the NHC and WFOs to issue tropical cyclone storm surge watches and warnings Implementation of experimental tropical cyclone storm surge watches and warnings in 2015 Future work: Expand to include extra-tropical storms NWS Partners Meeting - August 2013

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Transformation of Tropical Cyclone Watch/Warning Program Start Transformation by the 2015 Hurricane Season  New Storm Surge Watch and Storm Surge Warning product  Disseminated through a TCV-like product from NHC and WFOs New WFO Tropical Cyclone VTEC (TCV)  Largely automated and include all local watches and warnings and meteorological information in a one zone-one segment basis  Replaces the Hurricane Local Statement (HLS) as the WFO tropical cyclone watch/warning product Updated HLS – No VTEC, Non-Segmented Product  Discussion preparedness product conveying a succinct message on local impacts  Reformatted based on social science research NWS Partners Meeting - August 2013

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N HLS/TCV/Storm Surge Key Milestones Date ActionStatus Apr 2013Storm Surge Inundation Graphic approved by Social ScienceComplete Oct 2013New HLS/TCV examples approved by social scienceIn Progress Dec 2013Develop HLS/TCV requirementsOn Track Jun 2014Develop HLS/TCV formatterOn Track Jun 2014Implement experimental tropical inundation graphicOn Track Jun 2014Test HLS/TCV formatter at Operations Proving Ground (OPG)On Track Jul 2014Issue PNS to announce experimental test of new TCVOn Track Aug - Nov 2014OT&E of experimental TCV at OPGOn Track Jun 2015Implement experimental tropical Storm Surge Watch & WarningOn Track Jun 2015Implement operational WFO TCV & updated HLSOn Track Jun 2015Implement operational TCIG – approved by social scienceOn Track June 2016 Implement operational tropical Storm Surge Watch/Warning and inundation graphic On Track NWS Partners Meeting - August 2013

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Questions Mark Tew x125 NWS Marine and Coastal Weather Services Branch NWS Partners Meeting - August 2013

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Experimental Extended Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Graphics

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Storm Surge Improvements NOAA Storm Surge Roadmap commenced in 2005, following Hurricane Isabel (2003) and was energized by Hurricanes Katrina (2005), Ike (2008) and Sandy (2012) Comprehensive social science research has been completed and documents the public’s understanding, or lack thereof, of storm surge NWS needs to provide (text) storm surge information in terms of “total water level/inundation” (height above ground) NWS needs to provide a forecast inundation graphic WMO and Hurricane Sandy Assessment recommend a storm surge warning, a “missing link” for our nation’s hurricane program NWS Partners Meeting - August 2013

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Possible WFO-issued TCV product Waiting for Social Science Input XXXX## KCHS TCVCHS URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE XENA LOCAL WATCH/WARNING VTEC STATEMENT AL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 530 PM EDT SUN AUG SCZ /O.CON.KCHS.HU.W T0000Z T0000Z/ /O.CON.KCHS.SS.W T0000Z T0000Z/ /O.CON.KCHS.FF.A T0000Z T0000Z/ CHARLESTON- 530 PM EDT SUN AUG HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT......STORM SURGE WARNING IN EFFECT......FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT... * WIND POTENTIAL MAX SUST WIND MAX WIND GUSTS DURATION ONSET DAY 70 – 90 MPH 110 MPH HRSAFTERNOONTUE * STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE POTENTIAL /ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ MAX SURGE MAX STORM TIDEONSETDAY 8 – 15 FT 13 – 20 FTAFTERNOON TUE * RAINFALL POTENTIAL AMOUNTS ONSETDAY 8 – 12 INMORNING TUE

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Possible WFO HLS product Waiting for Social Science Input WTUS82 KCHS HLSCHS URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE XENA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC AL PM EDT SUN AUGUST HURRICANE XENA IN NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS MOVING TOWARD THE LOW COUNTRY... * NEW INFORMATION A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. HURRICANE XENA HAS STRENGTHENED TO A CATEGORY 3 ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON WIND SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 120 MPH AND GUSTS TO 145 MPH. * WATCHES/WARNINGS HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN GEORGIA…MCINTOSH…LIBERTY…BRYAN…CHATHAM…EFFINGHAM…AND SCREVEN IN SOUTH CAROLINA…JASPER…HAMPTON…ALLENDALE…BEAUFORT…COLLETON… CHARLESTON…DORCHESTER…ANDBERKELEY STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN GEORGIA…MCINTOSH…LIBERTY…BRYAN…AND CHATHAM, etc. TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN GEORGIA…LONG…TATNALL…EVANS…CANDLER…AND JENKINS FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. * STORM INFORMATION AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE XENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3N AND LONGITUDE 76.3W. THIS WAS ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA...OR ABOUT 560 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. STORM MOTION WAS NW AT 15 MPH. STORM MAXIMUM WIND SPEED WAS 120 MPH. * POTENTIAL IMPACTS HURRICANE XENA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THE SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA NEED TO PREPARE FOR THE FOLLOWING THREATS /FOR SPECIFIC INUNDATION HEIGHTS…WIND SPEEDS…AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED FOR YOUR AREA INCLUDING WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…SEE CAETCVAT1 PRODUCT/. * STORM SURGE AND INUNDATION EXTREME STORM SURGE FROM HURRICANE XENA COULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD INUNDATION IN THE FLOOD ZONE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST… POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERAL MILES INLAND NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE XENA MAKES LANDFALL. SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF STRUCTURES AND STRUCTURAL DAMAGE ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS IS POSSIBLE. MANY LARGE SECTIONS OF NEAR-SHORE ROADS COULD BE WASHED OUT WITH LOW-LYING ESCAPE ROUTES SEVERAL FLOODED. POWERFUL STORM SURGE AND TIDE COULD BREACH SAND DUNES AND SEA WALLS…WITH FLOATING DEBRIS CAUSING ADDITIONAL STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. EXTENSIVE DAMAGE IS EXPECTED TO MARINAS…DOCKS…AND PIERS. IN SOUTH CAROLINA…SEA WATER DEPTHS OF 8 TO 15 FEET ABOVE GROUND ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST AND ALONG VULERNABLE HARBORS…BAYS…AND TIDAL RIVERS TUESDAY. FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE GEORGIA COUNTY COAST…THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD DAMAGE…, etc. * WIND HIGH WIND IMPACT EXPECTED AS HURRICANE XENA MOVES INTO SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS MAY CAUSE SINGIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFING MATERIALS… SLIDING DOORS…FENCES…WINDOWS OF BUILDINGS AND POSSIBLE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. WINDS OF 85 TO 110 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 25 MILES OF WHERE XENA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. LOW TO MODERATE WIND IMPACT IS EXPECTED FURTHER WEST OVER INTERIOR GEORGIA. EXPECT DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES, etc. * FLASH FLOODING EXPECT SEVERAL INLAND LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE FRESH WATER FLOODING WITH HIGHEST /FLASH/ FLOOD WATERS CAPABLE OF CAUSING RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES TO BECOME SWOLLEN AND OVERSPILL THEIR BANKS IN A FEW PLACES…MAINLY IN HISTORICALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS…, etc. 8 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. * TORNADOES ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS XENA APPROACHES THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THESE TORNADOES MAY CAUSE DAMAGE TO CHIMNEYS…SCREENED PORCHES… OUTHOUSES…AND LIGHTER-WEIGHT OUTBUILDINGS. TREES…POWERLINES AND LARGE SIGNS MAY BE BLOWN OVER. TORNADOES CAN STRIKE AS FAR AS 200 MILES AWAY FROM WHERE XENA MAKES LANDFALL. && * NEXT UPDATE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA BY 9 PM…OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.