Estimating the Benefit of Drought Tolerant Transgenic Crops for Ghana Ashwin Mysore Gerald J. Friedman Fellow in Nutrition and Citizenship
Transgenic crops, agricultural development & developing countries Relevance and potential of transgenic crops in developing countries… The debate continues… ISAAA, 2007.
"Will it take a miracle to solve the worlds hunger problems?" Campbell, 1998; FAO, 2007; Sprague, undated; South Dakota Dept of Agriculture, undated.
“ Golden Rice can reduce Vitamin A Deficiency burden in India by 8-59 %” Golden Rice Humanitarian Board; UN, 1998; Stein, Sachdev and Qaim, 2008.
How Much Hope and How Much Hype? Estimating the Benefit of Drought Tolerant Transgenic Crops for Ghana FAO, 2001; Ashwin Mysore & Kathleen Merrigan, AFE Program, Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy Under Review, World Development
Drought tolerant transgenic crops in pipeline- Corn, Soy, Cotton, Canola, Tomato Corn: MX variety : 10 % higher yield under drought conditions MY variety : 40 % higher yield Tomato: Advanced stage of development TX variety : 20 % higher yield TY variety : 38% higher yield Africa News Network; AVRDC, 2006; Various media reports and project documents of Monsanto, Evogene
Why Ghana? High food insecurity among food crop growing farmers Low access to irrigation Total cultivated area ( ) : 5.2 mha Total irrigation potential :1.9 mha Irrigated area (2000) : 0.31mha Drought episodes, erratic rainfall compounded by declining soil fertility Corn and tomato are important crops Aggrey Fynn et al., 2006; FAOSTAT; FAO, 2005a,b; Horna et al., 2006; IWMI.
Estimating potential benefits Average yield and producer prices ( ) Reduction in yield and gross returns due to varying intensity of drought Gains in yield due to technology adoption Technology Fee Study variables: All calculations for Ghana and the US Outcome indicator of interest: gross returns ($ / ha) with technology adoption Sprague, undated; USDA, undated.
LowMediumSevere Ghana USA Based on existing trends – cost difference between traits & countries Campos et al., 2004; Farm Service Agency, 2007; FAO, 2005a; Heisey and Edmeades, 1998; IITA, undated; USDA Risk Management Agency, Technology fees US: $127/ha; Ghana: $ 71/ha. Yield loss (%) due to drought incidence
Returns ($) per $ investment on technology Technology adoption Drought intensity Normal agricultural season Low drought incidence Medium drought incidence Severe drought incidence Adoption of MX Corn Ghana US Adoption of MY Corn Ghana US Adoption of TX Tomato Ghana US Adoption of TY Tomato Ghana US
Sensitivity analysis for maize by considering 3 levels of technology fees Contribution of drought tolerant corn towards household food security T1: $53.3; T2: $71.0; T3: $88.8 Household (4 members) cost of meeting minimum food and nutrition requirements- $305.2 % household food and nutrition requirements met by adopting MY variety Various levels of Technology Fee($ /ha) Drought intensity Normal agricultural season Low drought incidence Medium drought incidence Severe drought incidence T1 (53.3) T2 (71.0) T3 (88.8)
Study implications Potential for water conservation and management in tomato production First generation corn varieties unlikely to benefit farmers Gains to US farmers greatest Technology fee – key issue which will determine technology adoption and benefits