1. JDS INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR JANUARY 22, 2019
ASSESSING THE VULNERABILITY OF RICE PRODUCTION AND FARMERS’ RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE UPPER EAST REGION OF GHANA
NUHU MOHAMMED GALI
SUPERVISOR: PROF. MATSUI KENICHI
JDS INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR JANUARY 22, 2019 1

2. Background of study Study Objectives Research Methodology
Update of results
Research/Future Plan 2

3. Study Area
The Upper East Region (UER) located north east of Ghana
Key Rice producing region, accounts for about 27% rice output in Ghana (Aggrey-Fynn, 2000; Al-hassan, S., 2011 )
The region is most vulnerable to hazards of Climate change (Antwi-Agyei, 2012; Nkrumah et al., 2014)
Region Vulnerability attributed to stagnated development and dry-land agriculture system (De Pinto et al., 2012)
Rice production is mainly climate dependent (Rainfed)
Rice farmers in this region perceived decreasing rainfall, increasing temperature, and reduced crop yields (Zakaria et al., 2017)
Climate change impact affect sustainable Rice production , food security and livelihoods of farmers
Source: 3

4. Main objective
To examine the vulnerability of rice production to impact of climatic variability and farmers coping capacity towards building resilience
Specific Objectives:
To assess the vulnerability of rice production to climatic hazards using yield and climate data.
To assess farmers coping strategies to climate variability at the community and district level.
To assess the Socio-economic factors influencing resilience to climate change among districts 4

5. Research Methodology Data collection Quantitative
Questionnaire survey
Questionnaire structure (2 sections):
Socio-demographic characteristics
Coping strategies
Questionnaire administration: July 2017 and March 2018
Purposive sampling:
Communities= 5X 10 respondents Districts = 4x50 respondents Total: 200 farmers
Climate and Yield data
Rainfall data for 2 decades from two stations
(SARI/Gmet-Navrongo)
Grain Yields of Rice for 2 decades
(SRID-MOFA) 5

6. Study Areas
The UER located north east of Ghana is home to thirteen administrative districts
Geographically falls within two of the savannah ecosystems, characterized by Unimodal rainfall pattern
Receives lowest rainfall within the Savannah zone :Average rain fall;800mm to mm, Minimum temperature; 14oC, Maximum temperature; 35oC (GSS, 2014)
Four selected study districts representative of the two ecological zones of the region (1.Guinea savannah, 2. Sudan Savannah
Source:
Rice farming is rainfed mostly at valley bottoms
(Tamne and Tamde) in Pusiga and Garu tempani Districts
(Pwalugu,Winkogo, pusi Namogo) in Talensi District
(Fumbisi,Gibedembilisi, Wiesi) in Builsa Distict

7. 1.Rice yield response to climatic variability
Regression analysis
Confirm the significant impact of rainfall and temperature anomalies on rice yield anomalies 7

8. 2.Vulnerability/ Crop failure analysis
Rainfall and rice yield data were detrended using auto regression with a 3 year lag and a Vulnerability/crop failure index was calculated
Vulnerability (V) = Yield loss sensitivity Index (S)
Exposer Index (E)
Simelton, E., et al.,2009)
Yield loss Sensitivity Index = Expected Yield
Actual Yield
Exposer Index = Average long term growing season rainfall( ) Average growing season rainfall for each year 8

9. 2 Results of field Survey
1.1 Socio-demographic characteristic of respondents
Source: Field survey, 2017 9

10. 3.Most critical constrain observed in rice production
Source: Field survey 2017
Observed Climatic Variability
Respondents indicated experiencing an increasing trend in temperature for a long period of time along with prolonged dry season 10

11. 4.Exposer to climatic hazards
Fig 2 Observed Climatic hazards in UER
87%
Floods
Climate change hazards
98%
Dryspell/drought
94%
Increased temperatures 50
150
200
250
Percenta1g0e0 response 11

12. 5. Impact of climate hazards on Rice production
Fig 3 Impact of climatic hazards on rice production
Percentage
Fig 4 Rice yields and production rate for the past decade as perceived by respondents
Percentage 40 78 24 20 16 15 7
Decreased
Increased
Yield rate
Not changed
Reduced crop yield
Total lost of production
Loss of cultivable lands
Increased cost of production
Impact
Land tenure insecurity
Infertile/Degraded lands
23%
30%
Food availability
47%
Fig 5
Risk
Most threating risk of climate change in rice farming Risk 12
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Percentage response
35% 40% 45% 50%

13. 6. Rice farmers coping strategies
Fig 6 Rice farmers awareness of Climate smart strategies
250
200
150
100 50 87
133 44 57
Frequency
Percentage response
Yes NO
awareness and adoption of some strategies were very low
Low adoption of some strategies attributed to limited knowledge and inadequate resources ( i.e. irrigation infrastructure)
The coping strategies adopted was positively correlated with farmers’
1. Rice farming experience (r = 0.173, P < 0.007), 2. Education (r = 0.136, P < 0.028),
3. Household labour (r = 0.117, P < 0.049), 4. Access to climate information (r = 0.324, P < )

14. 7. Alternative Livelihood strategies in response to Climate change
Farmers rely on the social network for access to financial services in times of need
Membership to social network improves farmers’ information sharing, access to extension services and resources 14

15. Future Research Plan The coping capacity of smallholder farmers’
Socio-economic factors influencing resilience to climate change among districts 15

16. References
De Pinto, A., Demirag, U., & Haruna, A. (2012). Climate change, agriculture, and foodcrop production in Ghana.
Simelton, E., et al., Typologies of crop-drought vulnerability: an empirical analysis of the socio- economic factors that influence the sensitivity and resilience to drought of three major food crops in China (1961–2001). Environ. Sci. Policy (2009), doi: /j.envsci
Al-hassan, S. (2011). Production Risks and Coping Mechanisms: The Case of Rice farmers in the Upper East Region of Ghana. Forum for Agricultural Risk Management in Development (FARMD)
Ghana Statistical Service (2014). “2010 population and housing census: A
summary report of results.
Antwi-Agyei, P., Fraser, E. D., Dougill, A. J., Stringer, L. C., and Simelton, E. (2012). Mapping the vulnerability of crop production to drought in Ghana using rainfall, yield and socioeconomic data. Applied Geography, 32(2), 16

17. Thank you 17