1. Sudan Cotton Company, Khartoum, Sudan
Cotton production in the northern part of Africa over the past 20 years, against the background of multiple challenges; cotton subsidies, climate change phenomenon and other challenges
Sudan Cotton Company, Khartoum, Sudan

2. Introduction
Cotton is an important cash crop for the world’s rural poor, including the northern African countries. Cotton farming in Sudan is a livelihood concern and indeed a heritage and a way of life for more than farmers. Up to 1990’s cotton had been the mainstay economy with foreign exchange earnings of more than 40%.
Egypt is an agricultural based country; contributes to about 14% of the GDP, absorbs about 31% of workforce. Cotton in Egyptian is considered as an important crop in the country.
The potential total area agro-ecologically conducive for cotton production in Ethiopia is estimated to 2,575,810 ha. However, in spite of high potential area in the country, the current production could not exceed 125,000 ha.

3. Harvested area
Cotton harvested area in Sudan and Egypt is being steadily declining; minimum harvested area was 24 thousand hectares in 2009 for Sudan and 100 thousand hectares in 2015 for Egypt. The harvested area in Ethiopia is almost constant except for a high drop in 2004 from 113 thousand hectares to 60 thousand hectares.

4. Cotton production growth rate
Cotton production growth rate in the Sudan was low during 1996 through 1998 it was more volatile and negative during 11 seasons out of 20. Sudan production growth rate was at its lowest value in season 2009 which coincided with the lowest harvested area. The same trend was observed for Egypt, but its negative growth rate was during 13 seasons and the lowest growth rate was in 2008 and the highest positive production was in 2001 season. The production growth rate in Ethiopia was positive in seasons 1995, 2002 and 2006 and negative in seasons 2000, 2003 and 2005.

5. Production and area growth rates in Sudan 1995 through 2015

6. Production and area growth rates in Ethiopia 1995 through 2015

7. Production and area growth rates in Egypt 1995 through 2015

8. Cotton subsidies
Cotton subsidies paid to cotton producers in some countries, particularly the U.S., Europe and China, during the period totaled US$88.2 billion with an annual overall average US$4.9 billion. International cotton prices were negatively correlated (r = -0.32) with cotton subsides, an increase in the later decline prices. This could be the main reason for the negative cotton production growth rate of Sudan and Egypt.

9. Subsides and price relationship

10. Effect of subsidies on cotton exports
Subsidies have encouraged surplus cotton production, which is then sold on the world market at subsidized prices, consequently reflected negatively on area and production in the non-subsidized cotton countries.
During the period Egypt and Sudan exports decreased 27% and 65% of their total exports during , respectively, resulting in lower earnings of foreign currency.

11. Sings of climate change phenomenon
Sings of climate change phenomenon is indicated by pest complex shift, in the sense that some pests have shifted from the status of secondary pests to primary ones. The phenomenon is particularly recognized for flea beetles and thrips. In addition new pest appearance has threatened cotton production like mealy bug. Sowing dates in the rain-fed areas in Sudan have been shifted making the crop prone to late drought problems and hence lower yield.

12. Other challenges
Production inputs are scarce and not available at the right time, not only this but they are not homemade escalating the competitive power of these countries. Cotton production enhancing yield technologies are rare in addition to the biotech varieties. Cotton farmers have been reluctant in changing their farming practices and they lack the requisite education, information and training necessary to adapt to climate change

13. Region authorities intervention
To continue growing cotton in these countries, these challenges need vital attention by each country authorities because the problems of subsidies have already forced area, and production down and climate change by now have emerged.

14. Some climate change preventive measures
There should be specific national agricultural policy structure
Adequate provision for irrigation and drainage
Development of drought resistance, short maturing higher yields cotton varieties
Development of heat tolerant cotton varieties
Adoption of biotech varieties to secure high yield and reduce cost of production.
Water harvesting

15. Thank you