A GODAE Summer School AN INTEGRATED VIEW OF OCEANOGRAPHY: Ocean Weather Forecasting in the 21st Century Amilcar E. Calzada Estrada 1, José M. Marín Antuña 2, Eugenio Mojena López 1, Osvaldo Enrique Pérez López Institute of Meteorology, Cuba, Universidad de la Habana, This work carries out an analysis of waters dynamic for seashores with economic importance in Cuba, such as interest bays and areas selected as natural reserve. The results are obtained from a hydrodynamic two-dimensional model that is fed by real data and intermediate calculus. Multiple assessments are made throughout graphical and digital outputs that enrich details space-temporals from each zone. The platform currents field and sea surface high values are shown in the entire mathematic domain. A Geographic Information System is used as a useful tool in the confection of the proposed scenarios. A method able to describe significant physical processes in the oil slick on the sea is applied with a Lagrangiane focus. For its operation, the processing of meteorological satellite images is explained as a necessary tool in order to be incorporated to the model. As a result of its use, the analysis of sea superficial temperature at the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and Bahamas is offered. In addition the temperature field will facilitate the characterization of the present sea currents. Finally, it is mentioned the software used for detecting, activating the specialist’s group and monitoring the affected area once the accident is detected. CALCULATION OF THE FIELD OF MARINE CURRENTS - Analysis of speed error values in some points of the field. - Assessing the slick position in relation with its prediction in a determined instant (t = t 0 ). - Impose to the model new conditions in predetermined time intervals, to guarantee its rectification. SIMULATION OF HYDROCARBONS TRANSPORT IN THE SEA - Choise of focus type (Lagrangian or Eulerian). - Data analysis and input (nature of the spill, initial volume of the slick, hydrometeorological conditions, physical – chemical characteristics of hydrocarbon, etc). - Perform the model run. ► (Lagrangian focus) Decomposition the slick in particles. ► (Eulerian focus) Analysis of the advection – diffusion equation. - Analysis of the simulation and answers to propose. - Model runs including the answers. A careful study of oil tanker traffic frequency in the marine area, along with low depth of waters adjacent to the channels and counter – sense wind and current conditions, brought as a result a high hazard assessment in navigational conditions of San Nicolas’ Canal and Old Bahamas’ Channel. This favors the occurrence of oil tankers accidents and sinking during its tracks. A meteorological database of NCAR & NCEP is processed by means of GrADS system, whose analysis will be very useful for the stochastic focus of the model. Otherwise, it can access to oceanographic data of the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico and Great Bank of Bahamas obtained via internet. -Climate data [US] - Forecast data [US] - Real time data HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL Mean sea level (tides) [DM]. Marine currents [DM & IS]. Wind speed and direction [DM & M]. Sea surface and air temperatures [DM & IM]. Sea state [DM & M]. GEOGRAPHICAL Latitude where the accident occurred Bathymetry of the area. ADITIONAL DATA Kind of spill Physical – chemical features of hydrodynamic environment. - Navier – Stokes’s system equations. It is applied to coastal zones. - PHOENICS. Their processors take charge of obtaining states of current speed fields in certain instants. - OILTRACK. Starting from boundary conditions settled down by the previous model, it is possible to simulate the marine current field, and consequently, the trajectory of oil spill. - Making the final analysis, important valuations can be reached about the permanency of dynamic processes. VALIDATION OF THE MODEL WITH SATELLITE TECHNICS AND FEEDBACK - Elaboration of the grid in combination with SPRING (GIS). - Conformation of the physical model to employ. - Working with PHOENICS. - Data input. - Working with OILTRACK. - Dynamic analysis of the area. - Location and characterization of marine currents surrounding Cuba. - Take into account the details of sea surface temperature field (magnitude of warm water intrusion). - Preparation of sea surface thermal charts. - Confection of the software SPILL to detect possible oil spills. [DM] – Direct Mensurations [US] – Under study [IS] – Images of satellites [M] – by Models - Incompressible and Homogeneous. FUTURE SCENARIOS TO STUDY Main Cuban bays. The most vulnerable areas of Cuban insular platform. Areas of economic interest on deep waters. Figura 4a. Thermal IR Image, with “RED TEMPERATURE” application. Figura 4b. Isothermic map of 14/04/88, Z. It shows hot water intrusion on the north coast of Cuba. figure 2. - Grids used for the numerical processing. Figure 1.- Maps of the Cuban adjacent coasts. a). Physical Map b). Example of Wind Field. c). Beginning of the Current of Golf. Figura 3.- Calculus of the Marine Current Field and the Oil Transport in Cárdenas Bay.