ESPON Internal Seminar 5-6 December 2012 in Paphos Territorial Trends and Perspectives Related to the European Neighbourhood

Structure The European Territory, The Neighbourhood, The World – Globalisation, Crises and Climate Change – New Markets and Trade Flows – Population, Employment and Wealth – Access, Connections and Cooperation – Conclusions

The enlarging territorial context Today a wider territorial perspective is necessary No place can today develop in isolation Competition is increasingly world-wide and no longer a zero- sum-game within Europe or a nation World City Network, 2008

Internet Users in the world, Average annual growth rate The world is rapidly changing New markets New flows New interdependencies New connections

European networks of cities servicing global capital more evenly spread and balanced than among other global players London remains Europe’s top- ranking centre followed by Paris, Milan and Madrid. Other particular high performer cities are Brussels, Munich and Amsterdam. Challenge to keep the position of Europe’s major global cities while exploiting second tier cities global opportunities to both grow and balance territories. Skt. Petersburg and Istanbul,Ankara important in the Neighbourhood Places servicing global capital,

End 1960’s, the world trade pattern characterised by a clear distinction between a small number of countries with high technology (USA, Northwest Europe, Japan) and a countries characterized by export of primary products. Beginning of the 21st century growing difference between countries exporting energy or mineral resources and sophisticated industrialised countries. In Europe, the EU has integrated new Member States into its economy becoming stronger in terms of trade exports Growing international players in the EU neighbourhood, notably Russia, Turkey, Tunisia and Morocco. Countries´s profiles for trade exports,

Aggregate potential impact of climate change Legend Impacts hits hardest in south of Europe and in western territories facing the sea Double challenge in the south as same areas have the lowest adaptive capacity

Population growth strongest in southern and eastern Mediterranean countries Eastern European Neighbourhood largely showing population decline In the EU positive growth apart from Eastern Germany, parts of Poland, northern Scandinavia, parts of Scotland and Spanish regions in the north-west Population Growth

The European population only increasing slowly towards In the EU, a trend of East-West divide in demographic development is visible, mostly due to a negative migration balance in Eastern Europe. Europe is getting older and the median age in 2030 will in some regions exceed 50 years. Migration plays a key role for population growth in Europe. Towards 2030, population growth will be significantly higher in neighbouring countries to the South sustaining a particular migratory pressure on Europe Population in EU and its neighbourhood in 2030

Most dominant differences between Europe (including Turkey) and North Africa, and between Finland and Russia. Economic divisions within Europe between west and east, and before the crisis, between Greece and Cyprus. Noticeable additional discontinuity between Northern Africa and countries across the Sahara Divisions in economic wealth in the EU between east-west parallel to demographic perspectives Discontinuities in GDP per capita, 2008

Regional labour force developed most favourably in the northern core of Europe Ireland, Iceland and Romania have relatively lost employment Some countries in the Balkans have witnessed strong decline Regional Employment Rates (labour force),

The strongest regions in Science and Technology human resources in the north western part of Europe The largest cities visible as key places for this segment of the labour force In Turkey, the Ankara region is the strongest player Human Resources in Science and Technology

Younger people (30-34) with tertiary education particularly low in the south-eastern countries, including Turkey Portugal and parts of northern Germany and central Poland under EU average as well Western and Northern Europe have the most educated younger population Capital cities in general scoring best within the country Tertiary Education of Population aged 30-34, 2010

Accessibility and connectivity a central agglomeration benefit and driver in the economic and social development of places Air accessibility, Europe appears as a mosaic with regions of high, medium and low number of destinations served Modifications of destinations since 2001 changing regional air access, both positively and negatively Low cost air carriers involve risks for long-term air accessibility Only regions with large international airports seem to ensure a stable position of air accessibility. Air connections seem to support European polycentric development and important for world integration Airports – Number of destinations served

Nearly half (46%) of EU27+4 international bilateral treaties are with the EU neighbourhood Without NO, SW, and IS the share falls to 193 (25%): 7% for Mediterranean countries, 8% for Western Balkans, 10% for Eastern neighbors, including Russia. Intensification of political relations is clear in the East (Russia, Ukraine, Moldova), except for Belarus. The political cooperation with the Western Balkans countries is also increasing Contrary, the Mediterranean neighborhood is generally trailing behind 5 Cooperation with Neighbourhood: Bilateral Treaties

Conclusions (1) – Living conditions in neighbourhood countries are in general well below the EU average, however a more wealthy middle class is growing increasing the demand – European trade needs diversifying opening new markets keeping the US and EU neighbourhood as important trade partners – In terms of trade, the neighbourhood have a position with regions specialized in low value added goods but also an increasing pressure from countries with lower labour costs – Population growth and migration pressure originates mainly from the Southern neighbourhood – The Eastern neighbourhood not characterized by migration pressures, more by border restrictions hampering a free flow of people and goods

Conclusions (2) – GDP discontinuities largest in the southern neighbourhood releasing northbound migration pressure – Climate change seems not to affect the eastern neighbourhood as severely as the southern neighbourhood – Skt. Petersborg and Istanbul/Ankara are potential world cities and potential partners in metropolitan cooperation – Cities at north-African shores should be considered potential cooperation partners with cities in the EU – Access by air to the neighbourhood overall not so bad, however many smaller airports sensitive to crisis – International treaties favours (currently) the markets in the eastern neighbourhood

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