1. Turkish EU Accession. Short-term Threats vs. Long-term Opportunities Presented by: Emil Iliev Kiril Kostov Lyubomir Vankov

2. Background 1987 – Turkey applied for accession to the EU 1987 – Turkey applied for accession to the EU 1999 – Turkey became a candidate country 1999 – Turkey became a candidate country 2005 – Start of official negotiations for Turkish entry 2005 – Start of official negotiations for Turkish entry Negotiations expected to take 10-15 years Negotiations expected to take 10-15 years

3. Europe is far too short-sighted

4. GDP Per Capita Lowest GDP Per Capita Lowest GDP Per Capita Mass immigration into Europe Mass immigration into Europe Flood of labor markets Flood of labor markets Lower real wages in Europe Lower real wages in Europe

5. Demographics 72.6 Million 72.6 Million Almost equal to 2004 Enlargement Almost equal to 2004 Enlargement 99% Muslim – will change religious balance within the EU from 3% to 20% Muslim 99% Muslim – will change religious balance within the EU from 3% to 20% Muslim

6. Unemployment 10.2% Unemploym ent 10.2% Unemploym ent Highest after Poland and Slovakia Highest after Poland and Slovakia Coupled with large population – will flood EU with poor labor Coupled with large population – will flood EU with poor labor

7. Geopolitics Only 3% of Turkey is geographica lly in Europe Only 3% of Turkey is geographica lly in Europe Does not include Ankara Does not include Ankara Will extend EU border to Syria, Iraq, Iran, Armenia, Georgia Will extend EU border to Syria, Iraq, Iran, Armenia, Georgia

8. YES to Turkish Accession

9. Turkey Reforms 1999 – National Programme for the Adoption of the EU Acquis  Abolition of death penalty  Expanded freedom of expression  Curtailment of power of military  Release of political prisoners  More freedom for the use and study of Kurdish  Looking for solution to Cyprus

10. Turkey is an important ally NATO member since 1952 NATO member since 1952 Pro-Western and increasingly democratic Pro-Western and increasingly democratic Full support for the “war on terror” Full support for the “war on terror” Contributed to military and peacekeeping actions on the Balkans and Afghanistan Contributed to military and peacekeeping actions on the Balkans and Afghanistan EU should use its leverage to export its values to Turkey EU should use its leverage to export its values to Turkey

11. The EU Needs Turkey To increase its leverage as a normative power To increase its leverage as a normative power To further its value-driven policies To further its value-driven policies To obtain a critical strategic partner To obtain a critical strategic partner

12. Joschka Fischer – German Foreign Minister until 2005 “ to modernize an Islamic country based on the shared values of Europe would almost be a DDay for Europe in the war against terror, [because it] would provide real proof that Islam and modernity, Islam and the rule of law... [and] this great cultural tradition and human rights are after all compatible” Tony Blair – UK Prime Minister “the accession of Turkey would be proof that Europe is committed not just in word but in deed to a Europe of diverse races, cultures, and religions all bound together by common rules and a sense of human solidarity and mutual respect.” “the accession of Turkey would be proof that Europe is committed not just in word but in deed to a Europe of diverse races, cultures, and religions all bound together by common rules and a sense of human solidarity and mutual respect.”

13. Turkey as a Strategic Partner Large Army – 400000 standing troops Large Army – 400000 standing troops Physical Presence in Middle-Eastern and Caucasus-Caspian Region Physical Presence in Middle-Eastern and Caucasus-Caspian Region Geopolitical Significance to the Balkans, eastern Mediterranean, Middle East, Russian Region Geopolitical Significance to the Balkans, eastern Mediterranean, Middle East, Russian Region Turkey Membership – more confident and expansive EU policy in the region Turkey Membership – more confident and expansive EU policy in the region Turkey will provide capacity, local knowledge and foreign policy experience in dealing with the Middle East Turkey will provide capacity, local knowledge and foreign policy experience in dealing with the Middle East

14. Major Growth Market Major Growth Market Rapidly modernizing economy Rapidly modernizing economy 7 % growth > average EU growth 7 % growth > average EU growth $17.1 billion FDI in 2006 $17.1 billion FDI in 2006 $86 billion exports $86 billion exports Less textile, more electronic exports Less textile, more electronic exports

15. Turkish Foreign Trade Turkish Foreign Trade $87.1 BILLION $101.3 BILLION 53,7%46,3% Total $188.4 BILLION

16. Energy Crossroad Energy Crossroad Crucial for EU future energy security Crucial for EU future energy security Positioned near all major Positioned near all major oil & gas areas

17. Solution to EU demographic Crisis Young, educated Turkish labor force Young, educated Turkish labor force EU showing future deficit parallel to aging population EU showing future deficit parallel to aging population High future EU demand for Turkish workers High future EU demand for Turkish workers

18. Other Economic Benefits Other Economic Benefits Already highly integrated economy shared Customs Union with EU Already highly integrated economy shared Customs Union with EU Potential logistics centre in trade between EU and the Caucasus, Middle Asia and the Middle East Potential logistics centre in trade between EU and the Caucasus, Middle Asia and the Middle East High consumption behavior High consumption behavior

19. “Absorption Capacity” “Absorption Capacity” If EU could take 10 new states at a single time, with overall population of 110 million, than Turkey with its 75 million should NOT be a problem as continuously stated. If EU could take 10 new states at a single time, with overall population of 110 million, than Turkey with its 75 million should NOT be a problem as continuously stated. Nothing about Size or Nothing about Size or Relative Wealth in the Copenhagen Criteria

20. Thank You for the Attention