Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center July Using the American Community Survey for Rural Research Dr. Richard Rathge Professor and Director North Dakota State Data Center Rural Sociological Society Annual Meeting Manchester, NH July 31, 2008

Presentation Objectives: 1. Highlight some key challenges of using ACS for rural research 2. Illustrate the need for a conceptual shift in the way we approach rural research when using ACS data 3. Initiate dialogue of implications for research and policy

Key Challenges for rural areas  Effects of longer period estimates  Consequences of smaller sample size  Rule changes and their impact on trend analyses

Period Estimates … ACS vs. Census  Census (conceptually point in time April 1 st )  ACS accumulates 12 months (1-year estimate) 36 months (3-year estimate) 60 months (5-year estimate)  Think of shutter speed on camera

Rural Statistical Areas Joint Project

Nebraska ACS Data  Thanks to Jerry Deichert for data  Omaha city was an ACS test sites: Can examine 1, 3, 5-year data

Key Challenges for rural areas  Effects of longer period estimates  Consequences of smaller sample size  Rule changes and their impact on trend analyses

ACS sample size is smaller than Census  One-year sample is 2.5 % of HHs vs 16.7% for Census long form Over five-year period, ACS sample size is 12.5 percent  Therefore ACS sampling error will be larger

Cass County, North Dakota (population 132,585)

Grand Forks County, North Dakota

People Moving to North Dakota Within the Past Year by State of Origin: 2006 ACS

Comparison of 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year Estimates of the Percentage of Persons in Poverty for Omaha, NE: ACS Single-year estimate Single-year MOE Three-year estimate Three-year MOE Five-year estimate Five-year MOE

Suppression Issues  ACS using suppression similar to the 1970 and 1980 decennial census  Applied to base tables in 1 and 3- year data  Use “data release rules” to protect user from tables “whose reliability is unacceptable”  Suppresses entire table not just unreliable cells

41 cells which will cause suppression for smaller counties

Key Challenges for rural areas  Effects of longer period estimates  Consequences of smaller sample size  Rule changes and their impact on trend analyses

ACS income not compatible with decennial census data  Decennial census asks income in previous calendar year  ACS asks income in previous 12 months Both are inflation adjusted However, Bureau test results show decennial income consistently lower than ACS (4.4% nationwide)  Bureau suggests users “exercise caution”

Residency rules very different  Decennial census- “usual place of residence “using 6+ month” rule.  ACS – current residence during the last 2-months. Attempting to better count seasonal residents

Once, Only Once, And In The Right Place Residence rules panel charged “to examine census residence rule issues and make recommendations for research and testing to develop the most important residence rules for the 2010 census.”

Observations from ACS Question 25 (seasonal housing) testing  Preliminary assessment is that seasonal housing units do not appear to be an issue for areas receiving 1-year estimates  Seasonal housing units are expected to cluster at smaller geographic levels Remarks from Susan Schechter and Deborah Griffin, ACS Office Staff

Wisconsin test counties Michael Starsinic, Census Bureau

What lessons have we learned thus far?  Need to be more mindful of our data users  Rethink how we interpret and disseminate data to the public  Examine ways in which we can better educate ourselves and data user

The Message and the Media: The 2005 ACS Rollout  We reviewed 57 articles in 44 newspapers around the nation that appeared August First availability of estimates for all areas greater than 65,000 population  Not just the NY Times and Washington Post; other major metros (Seattle Post-Intelligencer, Houston Chronicle) and smaller papers (Toledo Blade, Lexington Herald-Leader, Anchorage Daily News...) Research from the Committee on National Statistics, National Research Council

Key Interest: Change Over Time  Three-fourths of articles featured estimates of change from 2000 to 2005, mostly using the long-form sample for 2000  But only 2 articles expressed caution about comparing the long-form sample and the ACS Research from the Committee on National Statistics, National Research Council

Census Bureau Resources  ACS website on Census Homepage  Technical documents/user guides being produced by Census Bureau  State Data Center websites

Census Bureau’s comparison matrix

Demographic Presentation 2008  Dr. Richard Rathge, Director North Dakota State Data Center, Fargo, ND NDSU, IACC 424, Fargo, ND Phone: (701) Fax: (701) URL: