1. Exploring the Future Needs of Child Care in North Dakota Dr. Richard Rathge Professor North Dakota State University Child Care Solutions Summit Bismarck, ND October 2, 2012 Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 2012

2. 1.Set the Stage: brief overview of the context of child care in North Dakota 2. Forecast future child care need 3. Forecast future child care provider need 2Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 2012 4. Explore challenges and begin dialogue regarding solutions

3. 3  North Dakota’s population peaked in 1930 at 680,845.  The 2010 Census for North Dakota totaled 672,591, an increase of 30,391 persons from 2000. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census and the Population Dr. Rathge, NDSU, Oct. 11, 2012

4. Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 20124 Decades of Population Decline for North Dakota by County Since 1940

5. 5Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 2012

6. 6 Only 11 of 53 counties gained population from 2000 to 2010

7. Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 20127

8. 8 ND Ranking in oil production 9 th in 2006 6 th in 2008 4 th in 2009 2 nd in 2012 (behind Texas) 12,750 worked in the oil patch in 2010 compared to 2,000 in 2007 Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 2012 2,500 capacity “crew camp” authorized in 2011 with est. 20,000 workers living in temporary beds. Source: North Dakota Industrial Commission, Oil and Gas Division, https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/.

9. Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 20129

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11. Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 201211 Employment Projections for Oil-Impacted Counties in North Dakota: 2000 to 2036 Source: North Dakota State University, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics

12. 12 Young Adults Ages 25 to 34 Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 2012

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14. Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 201214

15. Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 201215 Average Annual Wage in North Dakota, by County: 2011 Source: Job Services North Dakota Per capita income ND rank 2000 $25,592 38 th 2011 $45,747 9 th

16. Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 201216 Percent of Children Ages 0 to 17 Living in Poverty in North Dakota: 2010

17. 1.Set the Stage: brief overview of the context of child care in North Dakota 2. Forecast future child care need 3. Forecast future child care provider needs 17Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 2012 4. Explore challenges and begin dialogue regarding solutions

18.  Five step process 1.Develop estimates of overall employment demand 2.Calculate ratio of employment to total housing 3.Distribute housing by county/place 4.Estimate housing unit mix (single vs multi-family) 5.Apply coefficients to create projections of housing demand by year Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 201218

19.  Three step process 1.Translate housing demand into total population by using estimate of persons per housing unit 2.Apply coefficient to housing unit demand to estimate potential population 3.Use cohort component model to create age distribution Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 201219

20. Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 201220

21.  Three step process 1.Use projections of children (ages 0-14) by county 2.Apply the proportion of children with working parents by county to the population projections 3.Use different scenarios to determine possible range of need Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 201221

22. Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 201222

23. Number of children (ages 0 to 14) in homes where all parents are working 2010 = 97,231 2015 = 105,851 increase of 8.9% or 8,620 children Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 201223

24. Number of children (ages 0 to 14) in homes where all parents are working 2010 = 97,231 2025 = 117,400 increase of 20.7% or 20,169 children Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 201224

25. Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 201225 Increased number of spaces from 2008 to 2012 by 3,626, or 907/year If you want to accommodate forecast potential, you will have to nearly double growth rate 8,620 spaces in 5 years (2010 – 2015) = 1,724/year 20,169 spaces in 15 years (2010 – 2015) = 1,345/year

26. 1. Maintain the current number of licensed spaces (i.e., hold steady what exists) 2. Maintain current distribution of licensed spaces relative to potential need (i.e., adjust to population growth, but keep current distribution)  Note: only 8% of counties have licensed spaces for 50% of potential child care demand in 2012 (statewide is 39% of potential demand) 3. Seek a goal to increase availability of licensed spaces to move statewide total to 50% of potential need  Will require 3% annual increase in licensed spaces to year 2025 Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 201226

27. Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 201227

28. Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 201228

29. Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 201229 Needed spaces by 2025 remains constant at 2012 level = 34,128 2012 Distribution of Counties by Licensed Child Care Supply Relative to Potential Need 2025 Distribution of Counties by Licensed Child Care Supply Relative to Need if Number of Spaces Is Held at 2012 Level First Scenario: Hold Steady Maintain same number of spaces in 2012 (34,128)

30. Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 201230 Needed spaces by 2025 = 10,670 or 820/year (can be obtained if growth continues at 2008 – 2012 rate, but this will only accommodate half of forecast increase in potential need) Second Scenario: Maintain 2012 Distribution Maintain 2012 Levels of Child Care Supply Relative to Potential Need - Percent of Counties

31. Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 201231 Third Scenario: Set Goal of Serving 50% of Potential Need Needed spaces by 2025 =21,335 or 1,641/year (double current growth rate) Increase Distribution of Licensed Child Care Spaces Relative to Potential Need by 3% per year by 2025 to Reach Statewide Capacity of 50% of Potential Need (currently at 39% statewide) – Percent of Counties

32. 1.Set the Stage: brief overview of the context of child care in North Dakota 2. Forecast future child care need 3. Forecast future child care provider needs 32Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 2012 4. Explore challenges and begin dialogue regarding solutions

33. Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 201233 Family/GroupCenterTotal SpacesFacilitiesWorkforceSpacesFacilitiesWorkforceSpacesFaciltiesWorkforce 2008 14,792 1,236 1,721 10,710 128 2,004 25,502 1,364 3,725 2009 14,541 1,214 1,681 12,630 136 2,126 27,171 1,350 3,807 2010 14,658 1,238 1,708 12,801 139 2,212 27,459 1,377 3,920 2011 14,529 1,226 1,698 13,247 142 2,403 27,776 1,368 4,101 2012 14,013 1,162 1,661 13,937 153 2,508 27,950 1,315 4,169 Number and Type of Licensed Child Care Spaces, Facilities, and Associated Workforce in North Dakota: 2008-2012

34.  Maintain current capacity and distribution of facilities by type ◦ 15% turnover in family and group facilities (less in centers) so these spaces are assumed to be maintained ◦ 50% of spaces filled by Centers ◦ 80% of residual spaces filled by Group Facilities ◦ 20% of residual spaces filled by Family Based Facilities  Use thresholds to distribute facilities by county ◦ Centers need at least 100 spaces ◦ Group facilities need at least 18 spaces Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 201234

35.  Apply current average workforce by facilities ◦ Centers need 16 staff ◦ Group facilities need 2 staff ◦ Family-based facilities need 1 staff ◦ Annual Center Staff Turnover: 25% of teacher 45% of assistant teachers/aids (issue is not addressed in these projections) ◦ Differential cost of facilities must be recognized  Cost of child care varies by age (infants most costly) Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 201235

36. Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 201236 Additional Child Care Facilities Needed by 2025 Scenario 2: Maintain 2012 Distribution (licensed spaces for 39% of statewide potential child care need) Family/GroupCenterTotal SpacesFacilitiesWorkforceSpacesFacilitiesWorkforceSpacesFacultiesWorkforce 2008 14,792 1,236 1,721 10,710 128 2,004 25,502 1,364 3,725 2009 14,541 1,214 1,681 12,630 136 2,126 27,171 1,350 3,807 2010 14,658 1,238 1,708 12,801 139 2,212 27,459 1,377 3,920 2011 14,529 1,226 1,698 13,247 142 2,403 27,776 1,368 4,101 2012 14,013 1,162 1,661 13,937 153 2,508 27,950 1,315 4,169 Need by 2025 5,9705027494,70047752 10,670 549 1,501

37. Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 201237 Additional Child Care Facilities Needed by 2025 Scenario 3: Assume a 3% per year growth in the ability to meet need (licensed spaces for 54% of statewide potential child care need) Family/GroupCenterTotal SpacesFacilitiesWorkforceSpacesFacilitiesWorkforceSpacesFaciltiesWorkforce 2008 14,792 1,236 1,721 10,710 128 2,004 25,502 1,364 3,725 2009 14,541 1,214 1,681 12,630 136 2,126 27,171 1,350 3,807 2010 14,658 1,238 1,708 12,801 139 2,212 27,459 1,377 3,920 2011 14,529 1,226 1,698 13,247 142 2,403 27,776 1,368 4,101 2012 14,013 1,162 1,661 13,937 153 2,508 27,950 1,315 4,169 Need by 2025 12,135 946 1,481 9,200 92 1,472 21,335 1,038 2,953

38. 1.Set the Stage: brief overview of the context of child care in North Dakota 2. Forecast future child care need 3. Forecast future child care provider needs 38Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 2012 4. Explore challenges and begin dialogue regarding solutions

39.  Competition for Workforce  Cost of Child Care  Access/Affordability  Retention and Dismissals  Quality of Care Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 201239

40. Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 201240 Source: ND Child Care Resource & Referral: Center 2012 Salary Report 27% start at minimum wage 60% start at $10.10/hour or less (mean = $21,000 annual salary)

41. Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 201241 Source: ND Child Care Resource & Referral: Center 2012 Salary Report

42. Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 201242  Source: ND Child Care Resource & Referral: Center 2012 Salary Report

43. Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 201243  Source: ND Child Care Resource & Referral: Center 2012 Salary Report

44.  26% did not need child care in the previous month (2007 NSCH) vs. 37% nationally  63% of children received 10 or more hours/week of child care from nonparent 45% nationally  42% received 10 or more hours per week of child care from non-relatives (e.g., day care, preschool, Head Start) vs. 29% nationally Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 201244

45.  27% of people had to make unexpected last minute changes in child care arrangements at least once in the previous month (2007 NSCH)  11% of families with children ages 0-5 had their work life affected by child care issues ◦ Economic differences – 29% of families in poverty compared to 6% of families at 400 percent of poverty  $8,066 = Average annual cost for one infant in a licensed child care center in 2012 ◦ 46% of referral requests from CCR&R were for children under age 2 ◦ Average yearly cost for 4-year-old in center-based care in 2011 exceeded the annual in-state tuition at a public 4-year college in ND Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 201245

46.  7,340 children 0-13 were in low-income families who received help paying child care bills in 2011 ◦ 6% of all children 0-13 statewide  Reasons families received subsidy in 2010 ◦ 78% employment, 12% training/education, 7% employment and training/education  72% of families had co-payment ◦ On average, 21% of monthly income  Age of child receiving assistance: ◦ 38% infants and toddlers (under 3 years), 37% preschoolers (3-5 years), 24% school age (6-13 years) Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 201246

47.  Survey to determine why, frequency, and what providers needed to retain children  Surveyed all licensed providers (1,518)  38% response (583)  20% dismissed children (244 cases) previous year  31% were children ages 3-5 years  58% children ages 0-36 months  51% due to behavior Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 201247

48.  Considerations need to be given for differences in quality for infant-toddler care relative to preschool care  Children’s cognitive and social development are positively related to the quality of child care  Quality of child care is positively related to higher staff-child ratios, staff education, and administrative experience Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 201248

49. Scale consists of 39 items organized into 7 subscales:  Space and Furnishings  Personal Care Routines  Listening and Talking  Activities  Interaction  Program Structure  Parents and Staff Rated on a 7 point scale Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 201249

50. Good Care Minimal Care Poor Care % Centers 6%76%18% # Classrooms 78420 # Infants and toddlers 791,003238 Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 201250

51.  Training and Technical Assistance support provided for 6 to 9 months ◦ Average 15% increase in quality after intervention ◦ Programs repeating intervention maintained quality and increased quality 30% ◦ Family child care scores showed more significant increase over center scores ◦ Center director’s skills and abilities key to quality improvement Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 201251

52.  Dr. Richard Rathge, Professor ◦ North Dakota State University PO Box 6050, Department 8000 IACC Building Room 424 Fargo, ND 58108-6050 ◦ Richard.Rathge@ndsu.edu Richard.Rathge@ndsu.edu ◦ Phone: (701) 231-8621 Fax: (701) 231-9730 52Dr. Rathge, NDSU, October 2, 2012