Public Opinion, Participation, and Voting Chapter Eight Public Opinion, Participation, and Voting

What is public opinion? Individual preferences (for candidates, issues, or institutions) aka “Taking the pulse of the people” Distribution – proportion of the pop. that holds one opinion as compared to those with opposing view or no opinion at all Consensus – when a substantial percentage agree Polarization – occurs when a large portion of opposing sides feels intensely about an issue

Responses Random sampling Open-ended questions Margin of error How you ask the question Just snapshots of opinions at a given point in time

Factors of Public Opinion Intensity – strength of people’s beliefs Latency – political opinions that exist but might not be expressed; they may not have crystallized or become publicized Salience – extent to which issues are relevant to people

Political Socialization When & how do we get our opinions? Childhood Nationalism (taught to love/respect our country) Sources Family / Peers Schools Mass Media Religion Racial/Ethnic attitudes

Family/Peers Most important Show political interest around age 10 Strong correlation between party of parents and party choice of children Family correlation is stronger than friends (actual voting tends to be somewhere between the two)

Schools Part of school is to prepare students to be active participants in government Recent studies show that schools are not doing a good job of developing citizenship College students tend to be more political conscious Concern? - professors have too much political influence on their students (teach - ins?)

Mass Media Exposure is selective, people choose what to watch, read, & listen to Provides information and propaganda about our society - can help shape attitudes and opinions Can highlight what the important issues are (This is why they could be a target of interest groups)

Religion/Ethnic/Racial Backgrounds Can shape opinion and gives us a generalization on how people view issues Dangerous to stereotype because not all will fit into their assigned category (not all African Americans will vote for Democrats, not all Protestants are Republicans)

Stability and Change We are slow to change our minds about things that matter to us (if at all) Opinions on basic morals & values remain stable – more specific questions (not value-based) can change substantially

Opinion and Public Policy Public opinion can lead to policy change (ex: Vietnam) Candidates use polls to determine where and how (or even whether to) campaign Elected officials try to follow public opinion to ensure reelection

Awareness and interest Politics - secondary priority for most (complicated and difficult to understand or keep track) Attentive public – 25 % (tend to be better educated) Nonvoters – 35% (political know-nothings) Part-time citizens – 40% People are generally unaware of who represents them and what they stand for Lack of interest has allowed for great influence to be held by few people

Participation How can people influence government? Voting Joining interest groups Writing letters/emails Calls Protests Routine participation (patriotic duties/behaviors) Pledge, national anthem Jury duty Political discussions/complaints Visit D.C. or state capitol

Voting Political activity of most Americans Historical qualifications for suffrage Religion & Property (eliminated by state legislatures) Race (eliminated by 15th) Gender (eliminated by 19th) Income (eliminated by 24th - banning poll tax) Literacy (eliminated by Voting Rights Act of 1965) Minimum age of 21 (eliminated by 26th)

Registration Required to prevent abuses & fraud Creates a barrier to voting - impacts voting rates Required in all states except North Dakota 6 states have same-day registration 30 days prior to an election in most others Motor Voter Bill (1993) National Voter Registration Act people can register to vote while getting a driver’s license Various public places also issue forms Requires states to allow registration by mail Has increased registration but not turnout

Turnout characteristics Highest - Presidential general elections Higher in general than primary; higher in primary than special elections Higher in presidential general elections than in midterm general elections and higher in presidential primary elections than midterm primary elections Mid-terms select 1/3 of Senators and all Representatives Higher when there are federal officials on ballots State elections have higher turnout than local 1960 peak turnout – roughly 65%

Who votes? As education levels rise, so does voting Whites vote more than African-Americans, who vote more than Hispanic-Americans Women vote more than men Higher incomes & job status vote more than lower Older people vote more People 18-24 or 70+ have poor showing

Voting Choices Three main elements determine choice Party Identification Candidate Issues

Party Offers a sense of affiliation 2/3 of “independents” tend to be partisan when voting Remains more stable than attitudes about issues or ideology Historically, party has been primary reason for how people vote

Candidates Candidate-centered era (over the last few decades more people are voting for a person and not a party) Candidate appeal – how voters feel about the background, personality, & leadership Campaigns also focus on negative aspects of opponents characteristics

Issues Not as significant - candidates often obscure their positions Few voters focus solely on issues Economy - issue that is always important