ASDC Annual Meeting Carolyn Trent, Socioeconomic Analyst Alabama State Data Center Center for Business and Economic Research November 2, 2012 Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration The University of Alabama

What is the FSCPE? Similar arrangement to SDC with MOA between state FSCPE representative and the Census Bureau. Formalized in the early 1970s to respond to demand for state and sub-state annual population estimates. CBER works with Larry Childers of ADECA. Annual training meeting at Census Bureau and spring meeting in conjunction with PAA. Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration, The University of Alabama 2

FSCPE responsibiliites Provide state and county-level data to the Census Bureau for use in annual estimates. Population in group quarters by location Births and deaths by sex for counties Review Census Bureau estimates before release and provide comment. Total population and components of change for state and counties (Nov.-Dec.) State, county, subcounty housing unit estimates (Feb.) Subcounty population estimates (April) Annual building permits data (May) Work with Census Bureau on other data issues related to estimates. Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration, The University of Alabama 3

Postcensal vs Intercensal Estimates Postcensal estimates—for decade following a census; use for July 1, 2010 to July 1, 2019 Build on Census 2010 count, modified by differences from boundary changes to create estimates base New vintage every year replaces prior years Intercensal estimates—estimates for 2000 to 2009 were recalculated using interpolation to end up at the Census 2010 count. On October 9 the following were released: −Intercensal estimates for cities and towns −Intercensal housing units for states and counties −Updates to state/county intercensal estimates by demographic characteristic Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration, The University of Alabama 4

Population Estimates Alabama uses the Census Bureau’s annual population estimates. CBER supplies data for these estimates through the FSCPE. Census estimates: Calculated as of July 1 each year Produced at the state, county, subcounty levels Used as controls for ACS data County series uses administrative records data; state is calculated as sum of counties Subcounty estimates (places, balance of county) look at housing unit change Entire series is recalculated each year Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration, The University of Alabama 5

State/County Estimates Based on administrative records Births and deaths annually from FSCPE and NCHS Net domestic migration: under 65 population from federal income tax returns, military movements. Changed IRS records processing from return-based to person-based Net domestic migration: 65+ from Medicare enrollees Net international migration from ACS, Census, other sources Group Quarters Begin with Census count of GQs by county Census data by type of GQ, but we don’t have a list of GQs that were counted Annual updates of GQ populations sent in by FSCPE. Also report new GQs. Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration, The University of Alabama 6

Subcounty/Housing Unit Estimates Housing units estimated annually for every county and subcounty geography Begin with Census 2010 base Add estimate of new construction in prior year, using Census Bureau building permit data. Assume 6-month lag from permit date to completion. For areas without permits, estimate non-permitted construction from annual Survey of Construction (SOC) Add new mobile home placements Subtract estimate of housing loss using percentages derived from American Housing Survey (AHS) Use these housing unit estimates to distribute county estimate totals to subcounty geographies 2011 subcounty estimates did not use the usual method, but were extrapolated from the 9-month change between July 1, 2009 and April 1, Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration, The University of Alabama 7

Census Bureau Population Estimates Schedule Note: All releases below are July 1, 2012 estimates. U.S. and state population and components of change 12/12 County population and components of change 04/13 Metropolitan and micro area population and components of change 04/13 State population by age/sex/race/Hispanic origin 05/13 County population by age/sex/race/Hispanic origin 05/13 State and county housing unit estimates 06/13 Place/county subdivision population 06/13 Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration, The University of Alabama 8

Challenges to Estimates Challenges were suspended in 2010, but will resume with the release of 2012 county and subcounty population estimates. The criteria for challenges has changed and it will now be more difficult to make and win a challenge. The method cannot be challenged, only the data inputs. For county estimates, this means that administrative records must be challenged (births, deaths, migration) At the subcounty level, housing unit counts, vacancy rates, GQs can be challenged Subcounty challenges will reallocate population within a county. Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration, The University of Alabama 9

So what can we do to assure the best possible estimates for Alabama? Let CBER know about any new (sizeable) Group Quarters locations in your area. We currently do not report nursing home populations annually, but would like to start. Help improve building permits coverage and reporting in Alabama. Provide local knowledge concerning natural disasters and their impact on the housing stock (e.g., loss, demolitions, share of permits that are for rebuilding). Stress the importance of completing the annual Boundary and Annexation Survey sent to incorporated places. Estimates for places with boundary changes are revised back to the previous Census. CQR challenges to boundaries, geocoding, or coverage are due by June 1, Changes are recorded and rolled into the next estimates vintage. Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration, The University of Alabama 10

Building Permits Data Having good coverage and reporting of building permits is important to getting the best possible subcounty population estimates. The Survey of Construction is managed by the Census Bureau. Most jurisdictions report annually, with a selected subsample reporting monthly. According to the Census Bureau, 69 percent of Alabama’s popu- lation lives in permit-issuing places. Only Mississippi and Arkansas have lower percentages. In 26 states, the percent is Alabama also has the problem that many jurisdictions issue permits outside their legal boundaries. If a permitting jurisdiction does not report by the deadline, their permits are imputed from the last available year. For areas that do not issue permits, housing units are allocated from the regional Survey of Construction based on their relative shares of housing units in the last Census. SDC follows up with nonrespondents each year and FSCPE is now reviewing the building permits data annually. Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration, The University of Alabama 11