Chapter 11. Public Opinion and the Performance of Democracy (I would say “democratic republic!) Bob Botsch

Basic Assumption & Normative Question Basic assumption: – The very nature of a democratic republic assumes a link SHOULD exist between public desires and policy Leads to a normative question: – Exactly how strong should the link be? I would suggest a delicate and dynamic balancing act – strong enough to maintain legitimacy, but not so strong as to undermine basic human rights and political equality under the law (if we can agree on what those rights are and how to achieve political equality while allowing some economic inequality)

Review of 5 models that can link opinion to policy Rational Activist model Political Parties model Interest Groups model Role-Playing model Sharing model

Evidence That We Have Linkage Case studies – health care – Shows that policy changes slowly – Power of interest groups to oppose and then modify policy to suit needs – Average citizens extremely ignorant beyond general preferences Impact of general preferences over time – Alan Monroe studies (see p.325) About 2/3’s success Status quo preferences do better than change Ideological mood and change over time – Time lag (see p.326) – can see a rough up and down cycle – W. Bush mismatch in set stage for Obama win

State Level Evidence of Link Ideological tone of states produce policies that roughly match the tone – see p.328 Caveats: – Remember that people apply labels that tend to be more conservative than policy preferences! – Recent evidence that leaders of both ideologies (esp conservative leaders) overestimate voter conservativeness – Elites can also sway opinion—e.g. gay rights, which started with academic elites

Should and do all opinions count equally? Conditions for system survival – Cricks Law: power should be proportional to the importance of each group in society Therefore, political equality must be balanced with the ability of important groups to protect vital interests--interest group politics favor intensity and wealth – Socrates: it is in the interest of the few to protect the interests of the many points to the danger of high inequality—have we reached a tipping point today? In practice, government gives those with $ a higher percentage of policy success Can we assume that rich and poor have different interests? Madison thought so in “Federalist No. 10” Sometime not in stated preferences, but WHY?

Why do not “the many” get more involved in politics? Mass political incompetence—we should be happy that they do not b/c they would endanger democratic rights—or mental “particularism” Rational Disengagement—not worth it! Elite Manipulation—easily distrated and divided-- problem of studying non-events (second face of power) Contentment—little evidence of contentment in view of mass dissatisfaction with institutions