The Emerging Video Internet Ecosystem William B. Norton NZNOG 2010 I started noticing the video... This talk was funded in part by InternetNZ InterStream Association and DrPeering

Evolution of the U.S. Peering Ecosystem Content Providers Tier 1 ISPs Tier 2 ISPs T T T Source: The Evolution of the U.S. Peering Ecosystem Internet Region

Evolution of the U.S. Peering Ecosystem Content Providers Tier 1 ISPs Tier 2 ISPs T T T NetSaavyCP CableCos CDNs Internet Region

Research Questions How does Hollywood distribute video? 80% of all Internet Traffic is Video, 40% is youTube --> Video Internet Ecosystem How are Hollywood and the Video Internet Ecosystems Parallel, Intersecting Clashing, Evolving What are their Trajectories & Predictions

Video Internet What is the Hollywood System? What is the Video Internet System?

Modeling The Hollywood Ecosystem

Hollywood Ecosystem meets Video Internet Ecosystem Parallel, Intersecting, Clashing, Evolving, Innovating

Innovation Over The Top SkypeTV

Innovati on

Top 8 Reasons to rip and distribute via P2P 1. They are Fans 2. Tit for tat 3. Commercials: 16min, Content: 44min 4. Community Recognition 5. Movie Studios are enemies 6. Not available in country in timely basis 7. Don’t recognize Intellectual Property 8. Product Mix wrong: Portable Digital Format, Reasonable Time, no commercials, Reasonable Price

P2P Lawsuits Products Adjusted Release Window Shortened Simultaneous Int’l Releases Digital Download - Rent/Buy Commercial-sponsored TV: Hulu 5M SkypeTV 2010 VideoConf Innovati on Hollywood System Morphs...

P2P Lawsuits Products Adjusted Release Window Shortened Simultaneous Int’l Releases Digital Download - Rent/Buy Commercial-sponsored TV: Hulu 5M SkypeTV 2010 VideoConf net Neutral ity Innovati on

P2P Lawsuits Products Adjusted Release Window Shortened Simultaneous Int’l Releases Digital Download - Rent/Buy Commercial-sponsored TV: Hulu 5M SkypeTV 2010 VideoConf net Neutral ity Innovati on EquipMkt

Sporting Events

Mini Revolutions activated the Video Internet Cheap Cameras and editing SW Free upload and distribution (youTube) Dropping transit/CDN prices Broadband to the eyeballs Home wifi over the top appliances in the home

Transit Prices $/Mbps$1, $ $12$9$7$4.50$2.50$1.75$ $1200/Mbps 2004 $120/Mbps 2008 $12/Mbps 2014 (Projection) $1.20/Mbps

Trajectories

SkypeTV M Skype-enabled Killer App? Mother’s day - best effort good enough? What does it mean when your skype TV is hacked - unprecedented world access to your living room Will this send Cisco TelePresence to high-end market, like Hollywood driven to only making blockbuster movies?

Portable TV iTablet (laptop sized video iPhone) at lunch with you eavesdrops, brings up referenced content take your TV(display) & channels w/you

Thoughts If you were to build from scratch the Video Internet (that also supports other stuff), would it look like what we have today? Will all video (premium,etc) be over the Internet, shiftable to where you happen to be? Delivered on your TV (aka multi- purpose display device)? Is the commodity network capable of handling the BW and tighter tolerances required for real-time video?

Debates we should be having here In 10 years, will all video be distributed over the Internet? Will the “Wisdom of Crowds” determine what is popular and what will be programmed on channels? Will your kids say “Dad, why did you allow other people to decide what you what you were going to watch, and when?” Is it time to talk again about (compensated) QoS across the net?

P2P Lawsuits Products Adjusted Release Window Shortened Simultaneous Int’l Releases Digital Download - Rent/Buy Commercial-sponsored TV: Hulu 5M SkypeTV 2010 VideoConf net Neutral ity Innovati on EquipMkt