Transit Long Range Financial Scenario Assumptions: 1 st and 2 nd quarter existing sales tax growing at 5% In 2020 and again in 2030, another ¼ cent sales tax for transit Introduction of new State of Good Repair (SOGR) cost Federal Funding limited to 1 project at 50% beyond BRT Provo/Orem BRT is already included in UTA real funding scenario

The Travel Model is used to determine ridership The Travel Model is used to determine ridership Draper to Spanish Fork traversing the urban core warrants Light Rail in phase 2 Draper to Spanish Fork traversing the urban core warrants Light Rail in phase 2 Provo to Payson warrants Commuter Rail in phase 2 Provo to Payson warrants Commuter Rail in phase 2 Commuter Rail to Santaquin has low ridership Commuter Rail to Santaquin has low ridership BRT to Eagle Mountain has strong ridership BRT to Eagle Mountain has strong ridership Transit Modeling Further study is proposed for South County Rail Options Further study is proposed for South County Rail Options Currently studying light rail alignment through Orem Currently studying light rail alignment through Orem LRT / CR Rail CR Rail / BRT Bus Riders High Low

Draft Listing of Transit Projects Projects shown as when needed Projects shown as when needed Cost and financial constraint to be presented later Cost and financial constraint to be presented later Vision or yellow projects need further study Vision or yellow projects need further study Project needed by… Need to add: Positive Train Control $ 7.5 m CR Additional Siding $ 12.7m

What do the projects cost? $413.6 m $2.27m $180.9m $.9m $871.3m $6.4m (fed money possible) $150m $3.5m $30.2m $4.8m $38.8m $6.2m $23.7m $3.8m $2.5m $4.5m $2.5m $3m Projected Costs Capital Annual O&M Total $1.75b in Capital projects $28.5m in Annual O&M

Revenue Funds Combined 1 st and 2 nd quarter cent Transit Sales Tax Phase 1 $435.2m ( ) Phase 2$708.9m ( ) Phase 3$624.4 ( ) Total$1.76b New 2020 Sales Tax Generation Only money available for new Projects $717,782,622

What do the projects cost? $413.6 m $2.27m $180.9m $.9m $871.3m $6.4m (fed money possible) $150m $3.5m $30.2m $4.8m $38.8m $6.2m $23.7m $3.8m $2.5m $4.5m $2.5m $3m Projected Costs Capital Annual O&M Total $1.75b in Capital projects $28.5m in Annual O&M New 2020 Sales Tax Generation Only money available for new Projects $717,782,622

State of Good Repair (SOGR) UTA cost for system wide state of good repair $4.3 billion Utah County’s share is 15% or $645M UTA is assuming 100 % depreciation value of its current infrastructure

Bottom Line The financial scenario is such that even after a quarter cent tax increase in 2020, we are unable to build a significant transit capital project within the time frame of the Long Range Plan. In summary, the plan will likely include a 70% increase in bus service and construction of commuter rail operational and station upgrades. Additional, revenue would change that.

Transit Long Range Financial Scenario Assumptions: 1 st and 2 nd quarter existing sales tax growing at 5% In 2020 and again in 2030, another ¼ cent sales tax for transit Introduction of new State of Good Repair (SOGR) cost Federal Funding limited to 1 project at 50% beyond BRT Provo/Orem BRT is already included in UTA real funding scenario

From November 2014 MPO Finance Committee meeting

Current Project List w/o and with SOGR

Ridership as if we built it all as LRT 2040 Modeled Ridership: CR South to Payson 7,637 CR South to Santaquin 648 LRT Draper to Orem 20,851 LRT Draper to Lehi BRT AF to EM 1,754 BRT AF to Provo 7,826 BRT Provo to SF 2,979 BRT SF to Payson 413

Option 2: SOGR at 50% w/o 4 th Qtr. Can build Segmented LRT and other BRT projects. No Commuter Rail South

Option 3: SOGR at 50% with 4 th Qtr. Can Build LRT to Orem OR Commuter Rail South and BRT Projects with Significant Bonding

Option 4: SOGR at 100% with 4 th Qtr. Can build LRT to Orem OR Commuter Rail South with BRT Projects. Reasonable Bonding

Option 5: SOGR at 100% with 4 th QTR Can build Commuter Rail South OR LRT to Orem with BRT Projects. Reasonable Bonding

Option 6: SOGR at 100% with 4 th Qtr. Build segmented LRT to Lehi AND Commuter Rail South and one BRT along State Street between American Fork and Provo.