Allocation of biomass (WP5) energy modeling approach and scenario assumptions Joost van Stralen (ECN) Biomass Futures workshop, November 26 th, Brussels 1

June December EIE/08/653 26/11/ Contents 2 Objective RESolve Biomass allocation in RESolve Scenario assumptions Conclusions

June December EIE/08/653 26/11/ Objective 3 “Assess the role of bioenergy in different sectors” Biomass ElectricityHeatBiofuelsChemicalsFood… Develop a model that allows for biomass allocation over different sectors Scenario analysis Interaction with PRIMES

June December EIE/08/653 26/11/ NREAP figures* 4 * 21 EU countries

June December EIE/08/653 26/11/ Production-consumption chains Production of biomass Conversion into bio(-energy) commodities Conversion into bio(-energy) products Functions of the products Market (demand) Land availability (supply)

June December EIE/08/653 26/11/ RESolve: overview 6 RESolve Biomass allocation RES-H/C: RESolve-H/C Biofuels: RESolve-T RES-E: RESolve-E E-prices: COMPETES

June December EIE/08/653 26/11/ RESolve-E * 7 Decoupling of grey market Barriers and distortions Realisable potentials * Formerly known as ADMIRE-REBUS

June December EIE/08/653 26/11/ Biomass – technology combinations 8 Biomass resourceCo-firingCombustionGasificationDigestionCHP Energy crops Forestry Solid manure Liquid manure Municipal Solid Waste Barley residues Maize residues Oilcrops residues Rapeseed residues Wheat residues Landfill gas Sewage sludge Industrial waste xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Per resource, start with lowest cost technology

June December EIE/08/653 26/11/ RESolve-H 9

June December EIE/08/653 26/11/ RESolve-T * 10 * Formerly known as BioTrans Find the minimal cost allocations along the biofuel supply chain in a group of countries, given projections of demand (biofuel target), potentials and technological progress EU countries

June December EIE/08/653 26/11/ How does it work? 11 Import & export

June December EIE/08/653 26/11/ What kind of categories are supplied?

June December EIE/08/653 26/11/ What kind of categories are supplied ? 13 Fuels Biodiesel, Bio-FT-diesel, Bio-DME, Bio-SNG Bioethanol, Lignocellulosic ethanol, Biogas Emissions CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O as CO 2 -equivalents Technologies Biofuel producing technologies, incl. torrefaction&oil extraction Countries and Regions Europe: West, Central/East; Ukraine, Rest of World

June December EIE/08/653 26/11/ Cost supply curves for crops 14 Example: Austria in 2010 Nuts2 level

June December EIE/08/653 26/11/ How to allocate biomass over the different sectors? 15 E, H and T treated unbiased Avoid double counting Import and export of biomass Emissions over the chain New demand segments in RESolve-T: Bio-electricity Bio-heat Extension of RESolve-T

June December EIE/08/653 26/11/ Biomass allocation in RESolve(-T) 16 Find the minimal cost allocations along the bio-energy supply chain in a group of countries, given projections of demands (biofuel target, demand for bio-electricity and -heat), potentials and technological progress

June December EIE/08/653 26/11/ RESolve-ERESolve-H -demand bio-heat - RES-H support -demand bio-electr - RES-E support RESolve-T -p feedstock -biomass pot. RES-E RESolve-E -p feedstock -biomass pot. RES-H RES-E/H demand converged? RESolve-H NO -Final RES-mix -avoided emissions -other indicators YES -demand bio-heat - RES-H support -demand bio-electr - RES-E support Connection of models - Flowchart

June December EIE/08/653 26/11/ How to deal with demand > supply? 18 FINE? NOT FINE? Comparison with RES-E and -H alternatives Initial pfeedstock↑ p feedstock↑ till demand = supply Continue with iterations General demand too large → decrease from sector With lowest demand ‘pull’

June December EIE/08/653 26/11/ Current status 19 RESolve-ERESolve-H -demand bio-heat - RES-H support -demand bio-electr - RES-E support RESolve-T -p feedstock -biomass pot. RES-E RESolve-E -p feedstock -biomass pot. RES-H RES-E/H demand converged? RESolve-H NO -Final RES-mix -avoided emissions -other indicators YES -demand bio-heat - RES-H support -demand bio-electr - RES-E support Current status

June December EIE/08/653 26/11/ Scenarios 20 Pessimistic availability of biomass Optimistic availability of biomass Slow development non-biomass RES ‘NREAP’ Large biomass Medium biomass Low biomass Fast development non-biomass RES

June December EIE/08/653 26/11/ CASES 21 Zoom in at NREAP scenario in more detail CASE 1: Achieving a maximum biofuel contribution CASE 2: More electrification in the transport sector CASE 3: Additional RES-H support CASE 4: Focus on minimizing GHG emissions

June December EIE/08/653 26/11/ Conclusions 22 A methodology for biomass allocation has been developed (D5.1) Implementation is going on → coupling RESolve-X models. RESolve-T used for allocation of biomass Draft scenarios have been developed Interaction with PRIMES needs to be worked on

June December EIE/08/653 26/11/ Questions? 23