Foresight Activities carried-out by EC/RTD-K2 unit Belmiro Martins European Commission Research DG - Unit K2 www.cordis.lu/foresight/

What is Foresight Thinking the future Debating the future Identify long-term trends and guide decision-making. Identifying today’s RTDI priorities on the basis of scenarios of future developments in science and technology, society and economy. Debating the future A participative process involving many and different stakeholders (public authorities, industry, research organisations, non-governmental organisations, etc.) Shaping the future Identifying possible futures, imagining desirable futures, and defining strategies. Results are fed into public decision-making but also help participants themselves to develop or adjust their strategies.

Why Foresight As policy makers need a more rational basis for decision making, a vision is needed. As knowledge dynamics speed up, a framework is needed for emerging knowledge to be positioned As the world grows more complex, a concept of how the pieces will interact help plan to-day. Growth is favoured in risk-reduced environments; Foresight helps reduce risks. Socially, groups that are motivated around a vision can contribute more effectively towards it.

The National and regional Foresight precesses Vehicle for national/regional debate on future prospects and policies to meet desired socio-economic goals Positions various public / semi-public initiatives relative to each other, policy relationships and systemic structures in positive context Translates science of to-day, technology of tomorrow, into desired social aims, like sustainability, quality of life etc., day after tomorrow Helps business make strategic decisions Helps national policy in global and regional arenas

International Foresight activities United Nations (UN-ACNU) - The Millenium Project Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) OECD- International Futures Programme UN-IDO IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis GBN-GFF WFS and Professional Association Futures Consortium - Social Technologies

Why Foresight at EU level There is the risk for many regional and national actors to repeat and duplicate efforts already made by others, more advanced in the Foresight process, without exploiting possible synergies. They thus miss the advantages that co-operation at the European level might bring, e.g. in the form of economies of scale, cost-efficiency and shared knowledge gains. More interaction and co-ordination of national research policies called for by the ERA strategy implies more co-ordination between national (and regional) foresight initiatives. Preparation of FPs might benefit from a more systematic use of (thematic and horizontal) foresight activities. Major challenges ahead for EU policies might be explored by specific EU level foresight initiatives combining wide societal and science & technology perspectives.

Missions of the Research DG/K2 unit to stimulate and promote co-operation in the field of Foresight in Europe; to monitor and exploit Foresight knowledge produced in Europe and elsewhere in order to inform European research policy developments; to implement the actions relevant to S&T Foresight under the “Support for the coherent development of S&T policies” of the 6th EU FP for Research and to manage the STRATA (Strategic Analysis of Specific Political Issues) activity under the IHP specific programme of the 5th FP.

Activities undertaken by RTD/K2 High Level expert groups, e.g.: - options for developing Foresight to strengthen the strategic basis of the ERA (2001-2002); - regional foresight: (2001-2002) and final conference in Sep/2002; and, in 2003, the “Blueprints” group to provide specific tools (blueprints) for different types of regions in Europe and final Conference on "Building the Future on Knowledge“, Sep/2004; - the future of the relations between Higher Education and Research (2001 & 2003); - “Foresighting the New Technology Wave”, analysing the convergence of nano-bio-info- technologies and cognitive and social sciences (2004). EU Presidencies seminars: - In Nov/2001 (B), on the actual use of Foresight results, and the impact of Foresight on decision-making, in governments; - May/2002 (E), with IPTS; - May/2003 (GR); - June/2004 (IRL) on “Foresight for Innovation”.

Activities undertaken by RTD/K2 (Cont.) Regular informal meetings are also organised with representatives of Ministries of Research (and Industry) of member states and associated states. Foresight-oriented STRATA projects: - FOREN - Foresight for Regional Development Network; - EUROPOLIS - Scenarios for the evolution of European S&T policies; - FOMOFO - The Four Motors Foresight Initiative; - DFFN - Design for future needs; - eFORESEE - Exchange of Foresight relevant experiences for small European and enlargement countries; - ITSAFE - Integrating technological and social aspects of Foresight in Europe; - TAMI - Technology Assessment in Europe; Between Method and Impact; - FORETECH - Technology and Innovation Foresight for Bulgaria and Romania.

Done: Country Specific Practical Guides to Regional Foresight Chapter 1 Basic Concepts PART I Introducing Regional Foresight Chapter 2 Types of Foresight Chapter 3 Background & Scope Chapter 4 Building Momentum PART II Implementing Regional Foresight Chapter 5 Structure & Organisation PART III Regional Foresight Case Descriptions ANNEXE Description of Foresight Methods Chapter 6 Outputs & Outcomes

The Mid-Term Assessment of Foresight Activities Main findings (I): scores of Projects: all score ‘high’ (H) and ‘medium’ (M) on Relevance = success in creating networks of Foresight practitioners; and all score H and M on Quality = effect on decision-making and reflection on S&T policy; However, almost 40% score ‘Low’ (L) on Impact = Foresight is not a visible policy instrument, not easily taken ‘on board’.

The Mid-Term Assessment of Foresight Activities Main findings (II): scores of High Level Expert Groups: all score ‘high’ (H) and ‘medium’ (M) on Relevance = success in the choice of topics/subjects of analysis and their opportunity; and all but one score H and M on Quality = effect on decision-making and reflection on S&T policy; and, More than 80% score H and M on Impact = conclusions and recommendations have been relatively taken into consideration. Scores of Conferences, seminars and workshops are similar, but with slightly higher Impact.

The Mid-Term Assessment of Foresight Activities Some conclusions: (…) Networks of practitioners, users and stakeholders have been created at the European level where none were before. EC Foresight activities have raised attention for the need for more holistic and long-term strategic thinking in various RTD related policy fields. (…) the resources for European Foresight have not been equal to the potential. The policy areas of Environment, Sustainability and Security, of Sectoral Foresight and of Governance deserve more attention in the coming years. Potential users in the Commission and in the member countries are insufficiently aware of the potential of Foresight as a policy tool. There is not enough efforts to achieve dissemination and reach out to all categories of S&T policymakers.

The Mid-Term Assessment of Foresight Activities Main recommendations: Faced with three options for the future of EC foresight, the panel recommends that the mission of the EC Foresight Activities Unit should be upgraded from the co-ordination to the promotion, as a pro-active catalyst, of Foresight. Foresight should be made into an instrument integrated in the S&T decision making process at different levels, namely in the EC services, in national governments and in independent RTD institutions, including private industry. For activities under the 7th FP the Foresight unit of the EC (should) continue to strengthen the community of foresight experts, decision makers and stakeholders by : - putting the network into action and organising a European Technology Foresight exercise ;(…) - participating in training activities on Foresight for present and future European policy makers (for example in the European University Institute of Florence or the European College of Bruges); - evaluating the actual uses and analysing costs and benefits of S&T foresight exercises; (…) Increase the promotion of Foresight as a policy tool; promotion of its relevance and benefits. Strengthen the communication of relevance and benefits of Foresight as a policy tool by providing practical examples, evidence of advantages and demonstrable improvement of decision-making. (…) New types of Foresight, for example with a focus on the development of new or changing research disciplines, should be actively explored.(…)

What can be done with Foresight in FP6 Foresight activities can be integrative elements in all thematic priority areas. This is specifically highlighted in the introduction to the priority thematic areas: " ….consideration of …socio-economic impacts of scientific and technological development and Foresight, will where relevant form a part of the activities." ERA-Net « ForSociety » The Knowledge sharing platform

The Knowledge-sharing platform 1. The first layer consists in providing the foresight community and the policy-makers with information on foresight initiatives in Europe and beyond. A contract for a project dedicated to monitoring foresight in the next four years has been initiated in 2004. 2. The second layer deals with mutual learning between Member and associated States and regions. A project to consolidate foresight methodologies, make them accessible through a Web-based system and stimulate exchanges of experience between foresight experts and foresight managers is being implemented since 2004 with the assistance of the JRC/IPTS. 3. The third layer aims at initiating EU wide approaches on issues of EU relevance. Following two calls for tender in 2003-2004 the studies should all be contracted by the end of the year.

The Knowledge-sharing platform: The selected topics for studies The future of R&D in services: implications for EU research and innovation policy Emerging science and technology priorities in public research policies of European countries, the US and Japan Perspectives of national and regional research and innovation systems in an enlarged EU 2015: specialization, complementarity and competition The future of research and innovation policies in an enlarged EU: key issues 2015 EU research and innovation policy and the future of the European Common Foreign and Security Policy Scenarios of future science and technology developments in emerging economies 2015 Scenarios of future science and technology developments in developing countries 2015 Professions with a science and technology dimension in Europe 2015: implications for education and training policies Improving the science/policy relationship with the help of foresight: a European perspective