Jump to first page Online Games Past Through Future Greg Costikyan Chief Design Officer, Unplugged Games

Jump to first page Online Games Past Through Future Evolution Business Models Technology

Jump to first page Me n 27 published games n MadMaze (1st online game with 1m+ players n Games industry analyst & consultant n Founder & Chief Design Officer, Unplugged Games n Write about games industry.

Jump to first page Evolution n It Didn’t Begin with Doom 1969: Plato 1978: MUD 1984–90s: Era of the COLs 1985: Habitat (persistent world) 1988: Modem Wars 1993: Doom (& DWANGO) 1995: Low Latency Start-Ups 1996: The End of Connect-Time The Boxopoly Discovers Online Gamesville 1997: Ultima Online 1999: Aggregators Mutate EverQuest

Jump to first page Today n Three Markets: Ad-supported mass audience Retail Purchase, Free Online Play Persistent World w/ Monthly Charge n New Entrants to Mass Audience Games EA.com, Games.com [Hasbro], PureSkill [Walker Digital/Priceline], –Sony n New Genres for Persistent Worlds Anarchy Online, Sovereign n Online Play now Standard for PC Retail Build Site vs. Work with Aggregator

Jump to first page Near Term Future n New Game Styles Neverwinter Nights n Proprietary Mass-Audience Games The importance of Euchre Licenses; Reiner Knizia n Niche Audiences Simutronics, Skotos.net, GameGate, Warcry n Indy Games Movement Sissyfight, Shockwave.com n The Search for the Middle Ground n Online Console Gaming Chimaera or Reality?

Jump to first page Business Models n Forrester Claims $1b US Market in 1999 I Want What They’re Smoking—Maybe $400m Tops n Three Viable Models Now Ad Supported Mass Audience (Prize-Based, Classic) Buy at Retail, Play for Free (Quake III) But at Retail + Monthly Fee (EverQuest) n Viable (?) Near-Term Models Free Client + Monthly Fee Pay for Components (Achaea) Shareware Revival

Jump to first page Technology n Broadband Does Nothing for Latency User Customization, Easy Component & Update Distribution The Death of Retail; Revival of the Doom Model n Voice-over-IP Socialization; Key Technology for Consoles? n Streaming Media Completely Irrelevant n Distributed Processing Harnesses Enormous Resources Security & Charge Model Problems

Jump to first page This is What Computer Games Were Meant to Be n Games are social activities. n The single-user of the PC has warped them in peculiar ways. n As broadband spreads, online will swallow conventional PC gaming

Jump to first page The Future is Late, but Not Cancelled n 3 years ago, the analysts were wildly optimistic. n We predict things on a linear curve, but growth is parabolic-- falling below initially, but then shooting far above. n We’re now poised for takeoff. n The future’s so bright….

Jump to first page Presentation may be downloaded from: Questions & Queries to: Greg Costikyan