Speen Area Action Group Public Meeting May 10 th 2011

Speen Area Action Group Meeting Agenda 8:00 Welcome & ObjectivesMel Foster 8:10County viewPaul Rogerson 8:30Update and ContextMel Foster 8:45Consultation Tony Bobroff 9:15Questions and AnswersAll

Meeting Objectives Provide an update on HS2 Identify activities underway Cover the main consultation & Transport Select Committee enquiry Provide an opportunity to answer questions Speen Area Action Group

Paul Rogerson

High Speed 2 – Bucks County Council Summary of Actions taken  Motion to Council in March 2010 agreed  3 ‘Summits’ held to gain expertise and support from organisations, MP’s etc.  Face to face meeting with Philip Hammond Sept 2010  Fighting Fund set up with partners in December 2010 to continue actively opposing the proposed scheme.  51M launched bringing together 13 Local Authorities to give a national profile to the campaign.

51M Membership consisting 13 Local Authorities Bucks County Council Aylesbury Vale DC Chiltern DC South Bucks DC Wycombe DC London Borough of Hillingdon Cherwell DC Lichfield DC South Northants DC Warwick DC North Warwickshire Borough Council Warwickshire County Council Stratford-on-Avon DC High Speed 2 – Bucks County Council

High Speed 2 – Bucks County Council Why 51M? 1.It represents the Cost to each and every Parliamentary Constituency for delivering the scheme - £51M 2.The Group wish to emphasise the cost to each and every taxpayer and the impact on other service provision the scheme will have, for very little return, for years to come.

High Speed 2 – Bucks County Council 51M - What will it do? 1.Co-ordinate efforts of groups 2.Communicate to the public the case for opposing the scheme 3.Retain professional / expert advisers to fight proposals through Consultation –Legal –Planning – from successful 3 rd Runway campaign –Financial –Give evidence to Transport Select Committee

High Speed 2 – Bucks County Council How can you help? Provide evidence to the Transport Select Committee Evidence required by 16 th May – Steve Baker MP for Wycombe Contacts

High Speed 2 – Bucks County Council How can you help? Val Letheren - Cabinet Member for Transportation Write Val Letheren County Hall Aylesbury Buckinghamshire HP20 1UA Telephone

High Speed 2 – Bucks County Council How can you help? Write to your MP and encourage friends and family members to write to theirs, especially those off the route Attend the Road Shows Respond to the Consultation

Speen Area Action Group SAAG Update Mel Foster

Speen Area Action Group SAAG Update Working closely with HS2AA & the Federation of over 60 action groups against High Speed Two (AGAHST) Participation in key meetings & events, support with programmes, both input and action (tickets) and campaign contributions, e.g. –‘Myths’ materials for MPs –AGAHST campaign management Crucial to maintain a strong presence at the table with AGAHST –We are the only group actively representing Route 2.5 –There is a risk groups on the route could act ‘locally’ –A key objective is to keep the argument elevated

Speen Area Action Group What has changed? Flaws in the HS2 argument are the same, the case against has become stronger Demand / business case Failure to assess alternatives Environmental argument National Interest

Speen Area Action Group HS2 Challenges Demand / business case –Growth in rail demand is still overstated Originally 267%, now reduced to over 100% during the planning period of 35 years (vs 25) This exceeds all ‘reasonable’ current forecasts including Network Rail - except those of the Dft / HS2 Ltd Does not take into account any effect from –Increasing use of technology –Reducing propensity for business travel due to cost

Speen Area Action Group HS2 Challenges Demand / business case –Cost of the project is now up to £34 billion –Benefits are projected at £44 billion, but The majority of this benefit is based on the nominal value of business time ‘saved’ through reduced travel – as you can’t work when travelling! –Even at forecasted travel volumes, the cost to the taxpayer through subsidies is £1000 per household –The main ‘beneficiaries’ are business people

Speen Area Action Group HS2 Challenges Failure to assess alternatives –Several alternative scenarios were prepared for Government by Atkins as part of the original report –Rail Package 2 provides an ‘easy’ path to increase WCML capacity by 135%, and with more work, 176% Incremental will not cause massive disruption (e.g. track) Base cost is £2 billion not £17 billion Can be flexed with true demand Why not take this seriously? –It isn’t as sexy as a new railway (but it does the job) –It doesn’t provide a political ‘legacy’

Speen Area Action Group HS2 Challenges Environmental argument HS2 Ltd report to Government says HS2 is ‘broadly Neutral’, however Government says it is a key factor in carbon reduction –HS Trains use 3x energy of normal trains Depending on load factor, carbon per passenger per mile is lower, but total carbon is higher Govt says there will be a massive shift from cars & planes to HS2 –HS2 Ltd said modal switch from cars was ‘minimal’ –To achieve the quoted shift from air, internal UK flights would have to increase by 178% (they are steadily declining) –Any flight slots released will transfer to long-haul travel

Speen Area Action Group HS2 Challenges Environmental argument Nobody has factored in the millions of tons of carbon generated during construction HS2’s ‘broadly neutral’ assessment is based on new power generation technology coming on stream: –Nuclear severely impacted by Fukushima –Wind and wave power

Speen Area Action Group HS2 Challenges National Interest –New argument developed when it became clear that the business and environmental cases didn’t make sense –Will solve the North / South Divide Over 70% of journeys are predicted to be to London (suggests extended commuting) 73% of ‘new jobs’ created by HS2 are in London Transport links (Motorways and existing rail) have never been major factors in solving N/S divide, they have made matters worse.

Speen Area Action Group HS2 Challenges National Interest –HS2 will create regeneration, esp around stations Lille – yes initially, but at the expense of surrounding areas HS1 – to a limited extent, but academics cannot attribute to railway (which is running at less than 50% of capacity) OECD report concluded that there was no evidence in Europe of regeneration resulting from High Speed Rail investments ‘Paid-for’ vested reports support regenerative effects (e.g. Centro) academic reports (e.g. Imperial College, Warwick University, OECD) do not. 40,000 jobs created (for £34 billion) –It is estimated that a similar amount invested in IT / broadband would generate 700,000 jobs

Speen Area Action Group The Political Dimension Moving goalposts: –Originally about capacity –Then about speed –Then about the environment –Then about the National Interest –Then about keeping up with Europe

Speen Area Action Group The Political Dimension HS2 is as much a political fight as an economic and environmental one –GB Ltd must have a high speed rail network because everyone else has one why and what cost? Is Cameron gambling that ‘the great cities of the North’ will vote Conservative if he builds a new railway? Local challenge: Lidington, Gillan and Grieve are now all members of the Government – Mr Speaker is somewhat limited in what he can say

Speen Area Action Group We are not NIMBYs …. The Adam Smith Institute The Institute of Economic Affairs Friends of the Earth The Green Party The Taxpayers' Alliance The Campaign to Protect Rural England The Sustainable Development Commission Senior rail industry figures Business leaders (who don’t make trains or are in the construction industry) Numerous media commentators An increasing number of County Councils, on and off the route ARE OPPOSING HS2 – Please do the same.

Speen Area Action Group HS2 – what to do? HS2 Public Consultation opened on Feb 28 th and now has 80 days to run – it is essential that you oppose HS2 through this mechanism Transport Select Committee enquiry –Inputs requested by May 16th

Speen Area Action Group HS2 – Roadshows HS2 Ltd roadshows along the route –Aylesbury May 10 th 11 th Stoke Mandeville Stadium –Gt Missenden May 12 th Link Road Car Park –Wendover May 13 th & 14 th Memorial Hall Look out for an HS2 ‘No-show’ –Developed by local groups

Consultation Initial response guidance Further detailed work by other groups and HS2AA Various materials now available in paper and electronic form Tony has the details …. Speen Area Action Group

Tony Bobroff

What Next? Speen Area Action Group

HS2 Consultation Questions Speen Area Action Group

Context …..Public Consultation Speen Area Action Group

Key Questions to ask Speen Area Action Group

Key Questions to ask

Speen Area Action Group

HS2 will waste £1000 of the £1500 it will cost every Taxpayer in the Country

Your Answers to the Consultation Speen Area Action Group

The Offline Campaign is Critical Speen Area Action Group

The Scope of The Transport Select Committee inquiry into HSR Speen Area Action Group

Evidence to TSC Speen Area Action Group

Summary Speen Area Action Group

Questions