Personal David Burridge Ex Director ECMWF Ex Director IPO (twice) Ex NED Met Office

 Science Plan peer-reviewed;  Implementation Plan approved;  Approved annual expenditure $1.2M through a trust fund;  First Symposium (Montreal,2004)  Regional Committees - RAII,IV,VI  Southern Hemisphere alliance GEOSS GEOSS

To Mitigate Natural disasters

The Team Elena Manaenkova Nathalie Tournier and David Burridge Jim Caughey David Parsons Tetsuo Nakazawa ”Chuchu” Feng

And $1,200,094 per annum or (better still) $1,824,795 per annum! in reality ……

In 2008, the organisational structure was revised With scientific oversight being provided by the WWRP JSC

My take on the major successes of the programme GIFS-TIGGE – TIGGE data base and TIGGE services; GEOWOW DAOS – analysis of the data from field experiments, reviews of the GOS and a authoritative assessment of the results of targeting PDP – Field experiments, science community building GEOSS – took us to places I didn’t expect to go, great source of support and funding YOTC – essentially the outcome of the Trieste (date) meeting Regional plans

Global Interactive Forecast System using the THORPEX INTERACTIVE GLOBAL GRAND ENSEMBLE (TIGGE) End-to-end forecast system “tuned” for end users, using targeted observations called on in ‘sensitive areas’, adaptive data assimilation, grid computing and distributed archives accessible through a single entry point.

Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPY U.S. (NOAA) Winter NOAA G-4 and Air Force C-130s JapanPalau Typhoon Landfall EU, US, Japan, Korea, Canada [DLR Falcon, NRL P-3] EU, US, Japan, Korea, Canada [DLR Falcon, NRL P-3] WMOWCRP/WWRPAsian/IndianMonsoon U.S.ONR/NSFTCS-08 [NRL P-3, WC-130] THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign/Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments and Collaborative Efforts SoWMex TH08 PROBEX Extra observations and targeted observations to improve track prediction Additional Targeting Component at DLR and FZK, Germany Patrick Harr Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, CA USA

Targeting Motivation: Track Uncertainty 10 September ECMWF Strike ProbabilityJMA Ensemble Members Numerical model aids

THORPEX and GEOSS  Contribute to GEOSS societal benefit areas, for example  HEALTH - use advanced weather forecasting methods to improve predictability of major health hazards in W. Africa  WEATHER - further develop TIGGE and societal applications  AGRICULTURE - help improve the predictability of food supplies in Africa  ENERGY - demonstration project utilizing the TIGGE databases to improve energy management techniques (particularly those linked to hydro-power)

THORPEX and WCRP  JSC/WCRP member of ICSC and science groups  THORPEX in WCRP/COPES  Joint project initiated to develop a unified ultra-high-resolution global weather and climate prediction system  Collaboration in TIGGE  TIGGE and Task Force on Seasonal Prediction (TFSP)  Similar technical issues (data, archiving, policy)  Potential for “seamless” days-seasons prediction systems  Links established between THORPEX and TFSP And

THORPEX/WCRP/ICTP Workshop Organisation and Maintenance of Tropical Convection and the Madden Julian Oscillation

THORPEX/WCRP/ICTP Workshop Organisation and Maintenance of Tropical Convection and the Madden Julian Oscillation Hosted by the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) March 2006, Trieste, Italy Meeting Report prepared by Julia Slingo, Franco Molteni, Mitch Moncrieff and Mel Shapiro

Regional Plans

Symposia

BBC weather pages Monday 10 November Published at 10:00 Monthly Outlook Summary Umbrellas at the ready - Our hats and scarfs were out as the UK …… Monday 10 November—Sunday 16 November More rain on the cards - Get your brollies at the ready as the UK is set for an unsettled week …. The positive side to unsettled spells is that frosty conditions will be few and far between Monday 17 November—Sunday 23 November Low pressure still dominates - Our old friend low pressure looks set to remain situated somewhere to the south-west of the UK …… Monday 24 November—Sunday 7 December Don't put the umbrellas away just yet - As autumns moves along for another year and winter begins to arrive, mild and unsettled weather looks set to cling to the UK… Monthly forecasting The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK. Next update at 10:00, Monday 17 November

The High Impact Weather Project A WWRP research activity Legacy Projects

Thank you for a wonderful 10-year programme Good luck to WWRP and the follow-on to THORPEX