1. NEAR THE END OF THORPEX – WHAT’S NEXT? Acknowledgements: USTEC Members WWOSC Townhall Meeting, 18 Aug 2014, Montreal, Canada 1

2. WHAT WE ACCOMPLISHED Weather community became more organized / energetic Dialogue between academia & operations More attention to use of forecasts R&D & R2O accomplishments – Adaptive observational techniques Winter Storm Reconnaissance (WSR) program – Ensemble-based DA / covariance in variational DA Hybrid GSI – Multi-center ensemble system North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) 2

3. WHERE WE FAILED Stakeholder Panel never formed – Low funding level, less than expected impact US coordination sub-optimal – International engagement less productive R&D misses – Optimal design of observing systems Evaluation, instead of design of observing systems – DA for moist / finer scale processes – Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS) Truly international probabilistic forecast effort – SERA research Lack of funding Cost – benefit analysis of new observing/DA/ensemble systems 3

4. OPPORTUNITIES Objective assessment of costs/benefits of weather research – Articulate societal need for / potential of weather research Coordinated national initiative – Broaden coalition - Engage more agencies R&D needs / gaps – Global nowcasting system Cloud DA w remote observations, non-hydrostatic forecasting – Decision support based on quantified forecast uncertainty Forecasting expected impact of weather – not only weather 4

5. USTEC RECOMMENDATIONS – 07/15/14 Integrated high impact US weather project endorsed – One Earth, unified science/infrastructure, national level societal needs, concerted effort/funding justification – USTSSC to develop plan incl link w 3 intl legacy projects Transform & rename USTEC & USTSSC – Current committees facilitate transformation & fill gaps Agencies & community consider forming a major US weather initiative – Galvanize community around societally understandable /relevant focus – Post-THORPEX integrated weather project at core 5

6. BACKGROUND 6

7. THORPEX 101 – 2005-2014 Objective – Accelerate improvements in high impact weather forecasts History – WMO/WWRP sponsored program launched in 2004 Approach – Research related to end-to-end forecast process – Coordination across Components of forecast system – Observing, data assimilation, ensemble forecast, decision support systems Nations & regions Research & operational communities – Modernize / optimize forecast system Allocate research resources to maximize overall economic impact Adaptive & probabilistic approaches – Observations, covariances, physics, decision procedures 7

8. MAJOR US ACCOMPLISHMENTS $ 20+M THORPEX-related investments by agencies – Field campaigns, AOs, archives, etc Developed, tested, & operationally implemented Adaptive observations – Winter Storm Reconnaissance (WSR) program National Weather Service Ensemble based data assimilation – Hybrid GSI-EnKF - NCEP Multi-center ensemble forecasting – North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) NCEP, Canada, Mexico + FNMOC - National Unified Operational Prediction Capability 8

9. THORPEX & WWRP ORGANIZATION World Weather Research Program (WWRP/CAS/WMO) WGs: – Nowcasting, Mesoscale, Tropical Meteorology, Socioeconomic Research Applications (SERA), Numerical Experimentation (joint with WCRP), Verification Joint Science Committee – JSC WWRP projects – Forecast & Research Demonstration Projects (FDPs & RDPs) Sochi, Vancouver, Beijing, Sidney, etc THORPEX program – supported by voluntary contributions to Trust Fund – International Core Steering Committee - ICSC Representatives of sponsoring organizations – Data Assimilation & Observing Systems (DAOS) Ron Gelaro (former co-chair), Tom Hamill – Predictability & Dynamical Processes (PDP) Istvan Szunyogh (co-chair), Craig Bishop – Global Interactive Forecast System – THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (GIFS-TIGGE) Zoltan Toth (former co-chair), Yuejian Zhu – Regional Committees (North) America (Malaquias Pena), Africa, Asia, Europe, Southern Hemisphere – International Program Office – IPO Coordination 9

10. Few standing WGs focusing on basic research areas – DAOS, WGNE, Ensemble/Predictability, SERA Time limited projects – supported by WGs & Trust Funds – Polar Prediction Project (PPP) – launched recently – Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal (SSS) – launched recently – Third major project (RRR?) – under discussion What’s needed given – Societal needs & – Scientific opportunities in next 5-10 yrs? SUGGESTED WWRP ORGANIZATION 10

11. WHITE PAPER ON POSSIBLE 3 RD PROJECT by ad hoc sub-group of ICSC IMPACT FORECASTING (IF) High impact weather (THORPEX theme) From minutes to weeks (instead of 1-14 days) Seamless weather – climate prediction – In context of changing climate Complement / support PPP & SSS projects Forecast the IMPACT of weather (not weather only) – Fine scales needed for this Focus on mesocales (instead of synoptic scales) THORPEX Townhall to provide input to International Planning Workshop Karlsruhe, Germany, 18-19 March, 2013 11

12. BACKGROUND 12

13. MAJOR INTL. ACCOMPLISHMENTS Focus on weather forecast research – Science Symposia – Workshops – WG meetings – Training Enhanced interactions between research & operations – Training of forecasters, etc Globally engage weather forecast community – Africa health initiatives, etc TIGGE – Archive of operational global ensemble forecasts 10 provider, 3 archive centers 13

14. US ORGANIZATION US THORPEX Executive Committee – USTEC – NASAJared Entin – NavyMelinda Peng – NOAAJohn Conrtinas – NSFChungu Lu – US Representative to ICSCZoltan Toth, Chair US THORPEX Science Steering Committee - USTSSC – Edmund Chang (Chair), Malaquias Pena (Co-chair) US Program Office – Supported by NASA, NOAA, NSF – Housed at NCAR – Pam Johnson 14

15. INTERNATIONAL STATUS / ACTIVITIES Funding - Lower than expected – International, regional, and national / agency levels Stakeholder Panel never organized / convened Organization – Observing System & DA WGs merged – SERA moved up under JSC/WWRP – Some ambiguity as to links between THORPEX & WWRP/JSC Research – Active WGs – Limited activities under RCs (except Europe?) Status report prepared for ICSC review – Delayed by 3 yrs Planning for 2 new WWRP initiatives – Polar & Sub-seasonal forecasting – Partially supported by THORPEX Trust Fund – Limited involvement from THORPEX WGs Legacy of THORPEX? – Plans to be discussed at ICSC meeting next month 15

16. THORPEX LEGACY – OPTIONS THORPEX formally ends Dec 2014 Trust Fund contributions cease Option A – DAOS WG integrated into WWRP WG structure (under all options) Option B – 5-10 yr extension; Trust Fund open for contributions; 3 WGs, RCs remain as funds permit Option C – New 10-yr environmental prediction initiative launched for seamless prediction of high impact weather In context of changing climate, in collaboration with WCRP New Trust Fund initiated Subseasonal/seasonal & polar prediction projects THORPEX WGs may be sustained Option D – Like C except no “umbrella” program Coordination for projects provided by WWRP and its JSC – Like for other WWRP projects 16

17. THORPEX LEGACY – USTEC STANCE THORPEX is big part of WWRP – THORPEX legacy & WWRP’s future tied Strong environmental prediction research supported – Hrs to seasons – either option C or D may work Science-based collaboration between WWRP & WCRP needed Option D may be organizationally clearer Link with US Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) program – There may be limited US contributions (NSF) Explore alternative funding sources (e.g., WWRP base, stakeholders) Clarify role of WGs vs. projects – Standing WGs promote research in basic areas DAOS, WGNE, Ensemble, SERA – Time limited projects aimed at specific deliverables Possibly regional focus Leverage expertise in (re)new(ed) standing WGs Reorganize other existing WGs into projects? Sustain research – operations links & TIGGE archive 17

18. US STATUS / ACTIVITIES Continued funding for PO by agencies – Despite cut in NOAA funding USTSSC reconstituted – Activities resumed – workshop, etc Science plan completed – Intersection of process, forecast, & application studies US implementation plan for next 2-3 yrs – How Science Plan maps onto agency initiatives/interests – Form of post-THORPEX weather research? 18