World Feed and Food Supply and Demand Governors’ Agriculture, Energy, and Sustainability Roundtable Governors’ Biofuels Coalition Washington, DC January.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Joseph W. Glauber Chief Economist, USDA USDA 89 th Agricultural Outlook Forum February 21,

Advertisements

FY 2014 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts Changes to FY 2014 Forecasts Exports $6.9 billion to $149.5 billion Imports $0.5 billion to $110.5 billion Surplus.

Commercialization of First Generation Biofuels Vernon R. Eidman Department of Applied Economics University of Minnesota August 21, 2007.

IFIF/FAO Business Meeting - Rome 2006 Agriculture and the Animal Feed Industry.

1 Informa Economics 2007 Agriculture Policy Roundtable Commodity Market Update By Jim Sullivan Informa Economics 2007 Agriculture Policy Roundtable Commodity.

Grain, Oilseed, and Biofuel Outlook Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University January 18,

Soybean Outlook Pat Westhoff Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (

Department of Economics Crops & Biofuels: Policies, Outlooks, and Debates Chad Hart Iowa State University Iowa Farm Bureau.

1 Biodiesel: The implications for soybean and product markets International Oilseed Producer Dialogue IX June 16-17, 2006.

Commodity Situation and Outlook (Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, and Livestock) National Turkey Federation Westin Hotel, Washington, DC October 24, 2011

Overview of the Global Oilseed Markets Annual Meeting National Cottonseed Products Association Santa Fe, New Mexico May 4, 2009 John Baize.

The Long-Run Impact of Corn-Based Ethanol on the Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Sectors: A Preliminary Assessment Bruce A. Babcock Center for Agricultural.

Bottlenecks and Oil Price Spikes: Impact on U.S. Ethanol and Agriculture Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University.

Remarks by Mark Pearson Independent Community Bankers Nashville, Tennessee March 12, 2012.

Greenbrier Hotel, White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia June 17, 2011 Situation and Outlook for Corn and Soybeans Presented to: National Chicken Council.

Economic Research Service USDA Grains & Oilseeds Outlook Agricultural Outlook Forum 2012 Edward W. Allen U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research.

FY 2014 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts Changes to FY 2014 Forecasts Exports $2.0 billion to $137.0 billion Imports $3.5 billion to $109.5 billion Surplus.

U.S. Ethanol Industry Outlook: Socio/Economic Impact of Booming Ethanol Industry Bruce A. Babcock Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State.

Department of Economics Crop Outlook and Grain Flow Shifts Iowa Cooperative Managers’ Association Johnston, Iowa February 10, 2009 Chad Hart Assistant.

American Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EIS) and the global agriculture Yong Liu Department of Agriculture.

Crop Outlook Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University July 17, 2008 Iowa Independent Bankers.

Corn & Soybean Outlook AAEA Annual Meeting 14 August 2012 Matthew C. Roberts

Bottlenecks and Oil Price Spikes: Impact on U.S. Ethanol and Agriculture Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University.

Feed Grain and Wheat Market Situation And Outlook 2001 Southern Region Agricultural Outlook Conference September 25,2001 Kurt M. Guidry Associate Specialist.

Department of Economics Feed Price Outlook Mandatory Country of Origin Labeling Webcast Ames, Iowa August 25, 2008 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain.

Department of Economics Crop Outlook Ames, Iowa August 22, 2008 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist

Agricultural Commodity Outlook Gerald A. Bange Chairperson World Agricultural Outlook Board Office of the Chief Economist U.S. Department of Agriculture.

FY 2014 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts Changes to FY 2014 Forecasts Exports $5.6 billion to $142.6 billion Imports $0.5 billion to $110.0 billion Surplus.

Grain and Oilseeds Outlook for 2011 Grain and Oilseeds Outlook for 2011 Michael Jewison Michael Jewison Foreign Agricultural Service U.S. Department of.

Oilseed Workshop Mark Welch Texas AgriLife Extension Service Texas A&M University System Wichita Falls, Texas December 11, 2008.

Bottlenecks, Drought, and Oil Price Spikes: Impact on U.S. Ethanol and Agriculture Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University.

Department of Economics Crop Market Outlook 2009 Weather, Crop, & Livestock Outlook Seminar Hills, Iowa January 28, 2009 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain.

Corn and Wheat Market Overview and Outlook by Cory G. Walters Southern Regional Outlook Conference Agricultural Economics.

Presented by Gerald A. Bange Chairperson, World Agricultural Outlook Board United State Department of Agriculture

Department of Economics Global Grain Markets Global Agriculture Conference Spencer, Iowa February 26, 2009 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets.

Agricultural Products: Steady and Unsteady Demand 2007 Agrifood Complex Outlook Conference September 19, 2007 David Stallings World Agricultural Outlook.

Department of Economics Crop Outlook Iowa Bankers Association Ag Conference Ames, Iowa March 23, 2009 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist.

Bottlenecks and Oil Price Spikes: Impact on U.S. Ethanol and Agriculture Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University.

FY 2016 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts Changes to FY 2016 Forecasts Exports $6.5 billion to $125 billion Imports $3.5 billion to $118.5 billion Surplus.

OILSEED, CORN & WHEAT OUTLOOK: 2016/17 Jonn Slette Senior Attache United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agriculture Service

What’s Ahead for Agriculture Remarks by Mark Pearson Fluid Fertilizer Association Scottsdale, Arizona February 15, 2010 What’s Ahead for Agriculture Remarks.

Bottlenecks and Oil Price Spikes: Impact on U. S

Droughts, Markets, Fuel, & Food

2012 Market Price Outlook Monsanto Grower Meeting Clarion, Iowa

Janet Larsen, Director of Research May 2008

2015 Illinois Farm Economics Summit

Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist

Corn & Soybean Situation & Outlook

Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist

Crop Market Outlook 4th Annual Beginning Farmers Conference Ames, Iowa

Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist

USDA Grains & Oilseeds Outlook Agricultural Outlook Forum 2012

2011 Crop Market Outlook Coleman Research Group Presentation

The Future of Agriculture in Iowa

Crop Situation and Outlook

Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist

Crop Situation & Outlook

Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist

Grain Price Trends, Now and Future

2012 Crop Market Outlook Coleman Research Group Presentation

Which is Hotter? The Markets or Your Field

Commodity Market Outlook

2012 Market Price Outlook ISU Northern Research Farm Meeting

2012 Crop Market Outlook ISU Extension Farm Management In-Service

Current Feed Situation and Outlook

Market Outlook ISU Extension Swine In-Service Ames, Iowa Mar. 29, 2012

Grain Price Forecasts and the Implications for Animal Agriculture

Crop Marketing Outlook for 2010

Presentation transcript:

World Feed and Food Supply and Demand Governors’ Agriculture, Energy, and Sustainability Roundtable Governors’ Biofuels Coalition Washington, DC January 28, 2010 Gerald A. Bange Chairperson, World Agricultural Outlook Board United States Department of Agriculture

Wheat Futures Prices Source: Chicago Board of Trade, Kansas Board of Trade, and Minneapolis Grain Exchange settlement prices. Nearby Futures Contracts

Global Wheat Production & Consumption Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010.

Australia Wheat Production Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010.

January 12, 2010 World Wheat Production

U.S. Wheat Area and Yields Planted areaYields Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010.

Foreign Wheat Area and Yields Harvested area Yields Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010.

Wheat Production by Other Major Exporters Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010.

Global Wheat Ending Stocks Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010.

January 12, 2010 U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand

Corn Futures Prices Source: Chicago Board of Trade settlement prices. Nearby CBOT Corn Futures

Global Corn Production & Consumption Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010.

RFS and Corn Ethanol Use * 2008/09 and 2009/10 projected based on the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, Projections for 2010/ /16 are from USDA Agricultural Projections to 2018, February 2009.

Source: USDA-NASS, Crop Production 2009 Summary, January 12, U.S. Corn Planted Area avg. = 79.1

January 12, 2010 World Corn Production

Global Corn Ending Stocks Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010.

January 12, 2010 U.S. Corn Supply and Demand

Ethanol Producer Net Returns Above Variable Costs Note: USDA-WAOB estimates based on USDA-AMS plant reports and DOE-EIA estimates and forecasts for natural gas and electricity prices.

Ethanol and RBOB Nearby Futures Prices Note: Ethanol prices based on CBOT nearby futures. RBOB (Reformulated Gasoline Blend Stock) based on NYME nearby futures. Reformulate Gasoline Blend Stock (RBOB) Ethanol

U.S. Ethanol Production Capacity Source: Renewable Fuels Association and Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007.

U.S. Corn Used for Ethanol Note: 2008/09 and 2009/10 projected based on the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, Projections for 2010/ /19 are from USDA Agricultural Projections to 2018, February 2009.

U.S. Blended Motor Gasoline Consumption Source: DOE-Energy Information Administration, Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO) and Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). 3.4 bil. gal. 9.3 bil. gal. 8.1 bil. gal.

U.S. Corn Feed & Residual Use Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010.

Corn Processing Feed Co-product Production Note: Based on food, seed, and industrial use, USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010.

China Corn Production & Consumption Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010.

U.S. and China Corn Yields Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010.

January 12, 2010 World Soybean Production

Argentina and Brazil soy production losses set the stage for 2009/10 Million Tons -18 million tons or 660 mil bu

Global soybean production rises 20% in 2009/10 Million Tons +43 million tons or 1.6 bil. bu.

Global oilseed stocks rebuild after 2-year decline Million Tons +16 mil tons

January 12, 2010 U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand

Lower S. American stocks in Fall 2009 boost U.S. exports in 2009/10 Million Tons -13 million tons or 470 mil bu

U.S. Soybean Exports bil bushels

China soybean imports now account for 54% of global trade Million Tons 42 million tons

Global Soybean Exports U.S. gains share vs S. America

U.S. Biodiesel Mandate...

U.S. Biodiesel Production Capacity Source: NBB website

U.S. Domestic Soybean Oil-based Biodiesel Production Margin Dollar per gal. blending credit expired Jan 1

Other fats and oils account for about half of total biodiesel production Soybean oil: 84% 2006/07 59% 2007/08 45% 2008/09 Million lbs.

In the U.S. canola and palm oil continue to replace soybean oil in the edible use category Billion lbs. Canola + palm = 27% of 3-oil total vs. 13% in 2004/05

Brazil, Argentina Industrial Use of Soybean Oil Million Tons

Vegetable oil used for EU biofuel production Million Tons 35% of global total

January 12, 2010 World Rice Production

January 12, 2010 U.S. Meat Production and Prices

January 12, 2010 U.S. Milk Supply and Demand

END