The Composition of the Vehicle Fleet in the Metropolitan Washington Region Results of Applying a Vehicle Identification Number (VIN) Decoder to July 1, 2008 Vehicle Registration Data Presentation to the National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board April 15, 2009 ITEM # 11

2 STUDY PURPOSE -Review of trends in region’s vehicle fleet - Assess impacts of market changes - Apply latest planning assumptions in air quality analyses

3 TECHNICAL METHODS - Obtain data files of registered vehicles in D.C, MD and VA -Apply ‘VIN Decoder’ software to read files and tabulate according to vehicle type, weight, fuel use and year of manufacture -Identify vehicle composition and changes since first use of decoder with 2005 data -Develop input files for EPA’s Mobile 6 model -Re-estimate emissions factors for forecast year analyses in current air quality conformity assessment

4 STUDY RESULTS -Composition of vehicle fleet in Number of registered vehicles -Vehicle type -Cars, SUVs, heavy duty trucks -Hybrids -Age of Vehicles -Changes through time

5 Data Sources Vehicle Registration Data for the Washington Region as of July 1, 2008 from DC Department of Motor Vehicles, Maryland Motor Vehicle Administration, and Virginia Department of Motor Vehicles VINPOWER Vehicle Identification Number (VIN) decoder software from ESP Data Solutions National vehicle fleet data projections from “Fleet Characterization Data for Mobile 6” by Environmental Protection Agency, September, 2001

6 Vehicle Type Definitions Passenger Vehicles (Less than 6,000 lbs): Passenger Cars and Motorcycles Light Duty Trucks (Less than 8,500 lbs): Sport Utility Vehicles, Pickup Trucks, Panel Trucks Heavy Duty Trucks (8,500 lbs and above): Tractor- Trailers, School and Transit Buses, Trash Trucks

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8 Washington Area Vehicle Registrations (000) JurisdictionYears2005 to Change Percent Change District of Columbia Maryland 1, , Virginia 1, , Total 3, ,

9 Washington Area Registrations By Vehicle Type (000) Vehicle Type RegistrationsPercentageRegistrationsPercentage Pass. Cars/Motorcycles DC Lt. Trucks/SUVs Heavy Trucks TOTAL Pass. Cars/Motorcycles MD Lt. Trucks/SUVs Heavy Trucks TOTAL1, , Pass. Cars/Motorcycles VA Lt. Trucks/SUVs Heavy Trucks TOTAL1, , Pass. Cars/Motorcycles2, , Region Lt. Trucks/SUVs1, , Heavy Trucks TOTAL3, ,

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15 Average Age (Years) for Passenger Cars, Light Duty Trucks and Heavy Duty Vehicles Vehicle Type Increase Passenger Cars/MC Light Duty Trucks Heavy Duty Vehicles

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18 CONCLUSIONS: 2008 VS FLEET Factors Tending to Reduce Emissions: - Hybrid vehicles increasing dramatically (although still small in absolute numbers) - Passenger cars vs. SUVs trends reversed, i.e., new car purchases increasing at the expense of SUVs and light trucks Factors Tending to Increase Emissions: - Fewer new vehicles being purchased - Emissions factors higher as a result, for both VOC and NOx > up to10% higher rates in 2010 > up to 4% higher rates in 2030

19 POLICY IMPLICATIONS -Policy Initiatives on Capitol Hill (e.g., Cash for Clunkers) -EPA Programs (e.g., heavy-duty truck retrofits and re-powering) -DOE Energy Conservation Programs (e.g., Idle-Reduction Technologies)