 Comp Sci 699  Fall 2012

Is it possible to have sustainable population of Wood Turtles while also having a sustainable (continuous) growth rate for the human population in Vilas County, WI?

 Time Scale ◦ Refined down to hours.  Ticks= Hours ◦ Days, months, years tracked 12/3/12

 Turtle Behavior ◦ Daily life: eat, bask, sleep in proper ◦ Mating during proper periods: turtles are male or female, during mating periods females have a chance of being “fertilized” if male turtles nearby ◦ For every “fertilized” female new turtles are spawned into world during proper months; number of turtles based on survival rates past first 5 years (we only model turtles that would survive into adulthood, since there is such a high mortality rate in the first 5 years) 12/3/12

 Turtle Behavior (cont'd) ◦ Hibernation during winter ◦ Natural lifespan: ~40 years ◦ Can mate if over 15 years old (sexual maturity)  Original population in world starts at age 15 so mating can be observed immediately ◦ Day-to-day survival chance high if not in contact with human development 12/3/12

 Human Behavior ◦ Humans move in beginning of each year ◦ If unaffected by policy, prioritize their settlement in following order: Near other humans AND lakes Near lakes Near humans Any suitable land cover (not marsh, water, etc.) 12/3/12

 Default ◦ Last place food was found is remembered ◦ Return to these locations when hungry ◦ No more food at location initiates new search  Left Leaning walk ◦ Likely the most realistic memory model

 Food Zones ◦ Similar to Default ◦ Multiple food locations remembered ◦ Exhausts memory bank before initiating new search  Avoid Humans- ◦ Turtles crossing developed patches get confused  Intended location lost, random heading ◦ If turtle survives, will remember developed patch as “bad”  Will avoid “bad” patches in the future

 Passing through developed patch increases chance of turtle death  Developed patches can no longer be food sources  Using Avoid Humans memory model ◦ Possibility for light confusion ◦ Navigating around developed patches challenging with high Human densities 12/3/12

 No Build ◦ Our experimental control for the turtle population ◦ No new incoming humans  Free Build ◦ Humans can build anywhere, based on what is most desirable  Most desirable: Near other humans AND Near water (lakefront)  Close to water > Close to humans 12/3/12

 600m Buffer ◦ No new development can occur within 600m of a lakefront ◦ Keeps entirety of Wood Turtle range free of development  300m Buffer ◦ No new development can occur within 300m of a lakefront ◦ Keeps “inner” 300m free from development 12/3/12

 Spaced Housing ◦ No new buildings within 180m of each other ◦ Promotes urban sprawl ◦ Ideally keeps corridors open for Wood Turtle movement  Grouped Housing ◦ New buildings can only be constructed next to a newly arrived human ◦ Limits urban sprawl 12/3/12

 Ran simulation with No Build to analyze Wood Turtle behavior ◦ Runs varied  Initial spawn of turtle population random. Problems occurred when near human development  Mating population of turtles can not successfully reproduce near humans ◦ Final mean population decreased slightly after 40 year 12/3/12

Is it possible to have sustainable population of Wood Turtles while also having a sustainable (continuous) growth rate for the human population in Vilas County, WI?

 Modeled “Current” conditions ◦ Free Build Policy ◦ Default Memory  Turtle Population reaches 0 after 71 years ◦ Can not complete lifecycle  No basking  No nesting sites  No food  Poor water quality  Without change to building policy, there can not be a sustainable populations of Wood Turtles while the influx of humans remains constant 12/3/12

 600m Buffer ◦ Turtle populations after 40 years remain comparable to control  Slight population increase  Most Wood Turtle activity takes place within 600m of water  Little human encroachment allows greater stability to the turtle population ◦ May not be feasible to implement  Socially unacceptable  Push back from public 12/3/12

 300m Buffer 12/3/12

 Grouped Housing 12/3/12

 Spaced Housing ◦ Encourages urban sprawl ◦ More humans and roads  Bad conditions for turtles ◦ Success for this policy could increase with better understanding of turtle memory 12/3/12

 Future Additions ◦ Integration with GIS ◦ Obtain better data using radio telemetry  Map turtle locations over time  Window into actual turtle memory  Simulating Economy/ Human Satisfaction ◦ Compare versus Turtle population  Policy is a tradeoff between the human and turtle factor but we are only really looking at turtles  Run the model more realistic turtle population for long periods of time 12/3/12

 Add ppt slide with more extensions ◦ Protected lakes/ areas ◦ Differential survival for males and females  Females roam farther, subject to higher mortality chance ◦ Point out research needs 12/3/12