Transportation leadership you can trust. presented to Regional Transportation Plan Guidelines Work Group presented by Ron West Cambridge Systematics, Inc. June 28, 2007 Introduction into Travel Forecasting

1 Why Model? Objective analyses: Deficiencies in future transportation system Alternative transportation improvements −Particularly as travel demand outpaces investments Federal & State modeling requirements: RTP analyses for MPOs Air quality conformity New Starts (Transit) Congestion management programs

2 Model Users/Developers Federal assistance Generally decreased as regulations have increased Caltrans Headquarters Once a key source of travel modeling expertise, less so over time MPOs A primary source of modeling expertise (Big four MPOs) Counties Project analysis, including New Starts Local Agencies Growing dependence on microsimulation modeling

3 Expanded Requirements for Travel Models Environmental justice Economic development Trucks/Goods Movement Emergency planning Congestion Pricing Cumulative Impacts Emissions/speeds Induced demand Land-use policies Non-motorized travel Transportation policies Interregional travel

4 Modeling Problems/Concerns Often can’t responded to new policy concerns No uniform standards Diffuse, decentralized environment Lack of good data Base year data and future projections Biases from institutional climate Optimization bias in many projects - New Starts Can’t respond to factors such as safety and reliability

5 Recent Trends and Advancements Enhancements to address policy questions – Ad hoc Strong FTA oversight of New Starts projects Peer review panels; Before & After studies Next generation models Tracks travel behavior of each individual (San Francisco) Improved statewide modeling tools Inter-regional travel; goods movement; land use Traffic operations & regional model integration

6 How decision makers can help Improved data to support models Must support periodic local survey efforts Enhancements / new models to answer right questions Right tools for the right jobs Adequate staffing and resources How does model respond to what-if questions? Sensitivity tests; Backcasting; Reasonableness checks

7 Matching the right model to the context Aggregate Disaggregate Level of Detail Required Transport Issues: Roadway Sizing Transit New Starts Air Quality/ Tolling HOT Lanes Peak Spreading Land Use Issues: Transportation Analysis Methods Traffic Analysis Mode Choice Population Synthesis Activity- Based Micro- Simulation Slow Growth Land Use Models: Excel, GIS Fast Growth, Impact Analyses Lowry-Type Models Real Estate Market Models Input/ Output Economic Development and EJ Disagg. Location Models = Reasonable combination of models Source: TRB Special Report 288