IR 203 Current issues in international relations (5) Bezen Balamir Coskun office: 417

What do you remember of last week’s lecture?

Turning Points are lasting changes in world history 1929, 1945 and 1989 and 9/11 were turning points in international relations Most of the turning points are marked by a dramatic event

Area of FocusCycles Domestic PoliticsLiberal/Conservative Foreign Policy MoodsIntroverted/Extraverted Cultural ThemesMaterial/Spiritual WarfareWar/Peace World Leadership Hegemony/ De-concentration Economic GrowthExpansion/Contraction

In the past, world systems theorists say hegemonic powers have dominated for approximately 100 year cycles But England had two cycles By this clock, the United States should be ending a period of hegemony The U.S.’ main rivals, Japan and the Soviet Union have retreated The US may have a second 100 year cycle

The 9/11 attacks were intended to end America’s global hegemony The Islamic global empire would be the presumed successor It seems more likely that American hegemony will continue for another century but there exist strong challengers to this hegemony

There is statistical evidence that there have been fifty year economic cycles over the last several hundred years These are only roughly predictable, with a 25 year upwave and a 25 year downwave But the Kondratieff downwave due in the last half of the twentieth century was averted If the long waves resume on schedule, we should expect a fifth upwave in the first quarter of the 21 st century Nikolai Dmitrijewitsch Kondratieff

Neither the 1987 stock market crash nor the 9/11 attacks provoked the expected global downwave The historical long waves were caused by population, global hegemony and warfare cycles, and these are over Technological progress is linear or exponential, not cyclical

It will continue, driven by generational conflict We are entering a crisis period equivalent to the 1930s

Rising labor unrest, but without an increase in crime or drugs Rising top tax rates and other liberal economic policies A more recessionary economy A successful conclusion to the War on Terrorism Michael Alexander

American military hegemony is strong The stock market recovered from its initial shock America is firmly in an extraverted foreign policy mood And Western “sensate” popular culture seems irresistible

9/11 and after War between a radicalized islam and the modern West Post-Cold war era came to an end The rise of Islam since 1970s, Instability in the Middle east, 1993 attacks to World Trade Center Threat to civilized world War on terror after 9/11 - Afghanistan, Axis of evil: Iran, Iraq, north Korea

9/11 and after Either with the US or against it, no other way in the war on terror Target IRAQ notion of enemies, concept of interests Results: 1) alienate Muslims 2) International opinion turned against the US 3) trapped into the Middle east world as a less stable place an intense debate as to whether the US was in the process of becoming a new kind of empire

Some concepts to know Axis of Evil 11 September War on terror hegemony US decline

11 September 2001 marked the end of the post-Cold War era Two key factors shaping world politics since 9/11: Islamic terrorism and the US-led war on terror US foreign policy has come under attack after it decided to go war against Iraq The world is now a less stable place than it was before 9/11

New Wars Today the international security environment is far more complex than it was in the Cold war era of bipolarity. The radically diminished threat of a world war has been replaced by the reality of intra-state conflicts which undermine stability and security at the domestic and regional levels. A serious challenge for the international system is the increasing number of weak even failed states and their inability to control developments on their own territory (Rotfeld 1998)

Jihad For over seven years the US has been occupying the lands of Islam in the holiest of places, the Arabian peninsula. Despite the great devastations inflicted on the Iraqı people by the crusader-Zionist alliance, the Americans are once again trying repeat the horrific massacres...(Declaration of the World Islamic Front for Jihad against the Jews and Crusaders 1998)

War on Terror In defending the peace, we face a threat with no precedent. Enemies in the past needed great armies and great industrial capabilities to endanger the American people and our nation. All of the chaos and suffering they caused came at much less than the cost of a single tank. The dangers have not passed. The government and the American people are on the watch, we are ready, because we know the terrorists have more money, and more men and more plans (Bush Speech 1 June 2001)