1 Electrifying transportation: The policies you need Jonn Axsen Simon Fraser University May 14, 2015 Renewable Cities: Global Learning Forum

2 53 kWh 24 kWh 16 kWh Huge variety among PEVs 4 kWh ~117 km electric range Nissan Leaf ~56 km ~500 km gasoline ~300km electric range Tesla Roadster Toyota Prius PHV Chevy Volt 20 km ~800 km gasoline Plug-in Hybrid (PHEV) Pure Electric (EV) Comparing Battery Sizes:

Latent demand: one-third of new vehicle buyers wants a PEV (mostly PHEVs) Source: Axsen, Goldberg et al. (2015), Canadian PEV Study (CPEVS)

Important barriers to PEV sales Source: Wolinetz and Axsen (forthcoming) “Constrained” forecast, without substantial policy ~1% market share

5 Policies address different barriers Home charging Public charging Awareness PEV purchase price PEV performance PEV variety (models) PEV availability Demand-focused policies Supply-focused Policies

6 Comparing PEV policies Demand- focused $ incentivese.g. $5000 rebate, or income tax break, home charger rebate Other incentivese.g. HOV lane access, free parking Home chargerse.g. building codes Public chargersInstallation of non-home chargers Info campaignDisseminating information about PEVs Supply- focused ZEV mandateAutomakers must sell a minimum market share of zero-emissions vehicle Fuel standardFuel suppliers must reduce carbon intensity R&D supportSubsidies for automakers to develop PEVs

Demand-focused policies can get PEVs only so far… PEV new Market share (BC) Source: Wolinetz and Axsen (forthcoming)

Supply-focused policies may be essential for PEV sales PEV new Market share (BC) Source: Wolinetz and Axsen (forthcoming)

A ZEV mandate may be essential to achieve 2050 GHG targets Source: Sykes and Axsen (forthcoming) Passenger vehicle GHGs (well-to- wheel) British Columbia Passenger Vehicle Policy Simulation (CIMS model)

Need PEVs to be majority of new market share by 2040… PEV new market share British Columbia Passenger Vehicle Policy Simulation (CIMS model) Source: Sykes and Axsen (forthcoming)

11 Priorities for PEV success (in order): 1. 1.Strong supply-focused policy (ZEV mandate) 2. 2.Strong demand-focused policies – –Financial incentives – –Other incentives (HOV, parking) – –Home charging (codes) – –Other charging (workplace, public)