Population Trends in Maryland, Spring Planning Directors Meeting May 22, 2007

Population Data Source U.S. Census Bureau annual estimates through July 1, 2006 –Data for states released end of December, 2006 –Data for counties released end of March, 2007

U.S. Census Bureau Population Cohort Component Estimates Births & deaths from administrative records Internal (domestic) migration from federal tax returns and Medicare records International migration – a national estimate is distributed to states & counties based on Census 2000 ratios

Maryland Population, 2000 & 2006 (and rank within U.S.) (19 th )

Maryland Population Change, Total Change = 319,221 (14 th largest) Percent Change = 6.0% (21 st fastest) –But below the overall U.S. rate of 6.4%

Annual Average Growth Rates for Maryland’s Population Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census Bureau Data.

Annual Population Change for Maryland (and rank within U.S.) 14th 10th16th18th 27th

Annual Pct Change in Pop in Maryland, (and rank within U.S.) 13th18th12th 22nd27th36th

Net Natural Change (Births – Deaths) for Maryland

Net International Migration and Federal Citizens’ Movement for Maryland

Net Internal Migration for Maryland, 2000 – 2006 * (24 th )(14 th )(11 th )(15 th ) (40 th )(42 nd )(43rd) * And rank of net internal migration among the 50 states and District of Columbia

Components of Population Change for Maryland: Residual Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, December, 2006

Reasons for Maryland Net Internal Out Migration Decreasing relative “economic vitality” Higher housing costs compared to neighboring states

Annual Pct Change in MD W&S Jobs and Pct Pt Difference: MD – U.S.

2000 Median Value of Owner Occupied Housing – Bordering Counties, MD & PA

2005 Median Value of Owner Occupied Housing – Bordering Counties, MD & PA* * Median value, plus and minus the margin of error

Change in Median Value of Owner Occupied Housing, Source: Census 2000 and the 2005 American Community Survey

2005 Median Value of Owner Occupied Housing Built Between 2000 and 2004 * * Median value, plus and minus the margin of error

Inmigration to Maryland From PA and Outmigration from Maryland To PA

Net Migration for Maryland With Pennsylvania

*Baltimore, Carroll, Frederick, Harford & Washington

Net Migration for Maryland With West Virginia

Net Migration for Maryland With Delaware

Total Population Change for Maryland’s Jurisdictions,

Population Change, (-3.0%)(-2.8%)

Components of Population Change for Allegany County,

Components of Population Change for Baltimore City,

Net Internal Migration for Baltimore City

Percent Change in Population for Maryland’s Jurisdictions,

Annualized Pop Change for Maryland’s Jurisdictions, &

Population Growth in the Upper & Lower Eastern Shore Regions, as a Pct of Statewide Growth,

Population Growth in the Eastern Shore Region & Washington County, as a Pct of Statewide Growth,

Net Migration Outflow from Baltimore County to Pennsylvania, Source: Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services, from IRS County-to-County Migration data

Net Migration Outflow From Carroll County to Pennsylvania, Source: Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services, from IRS County-to-County Migration data

Net Migration Outflow From Frederick County to Pennsylvania, Source: Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services, from IRS County-to-County Migration data

Net Migration Outflow From Frederick County To Washington Co., Source: Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services, from IRS County-to-County Migration data

Net Migration Inflow To Frederick Co. From Montgomery County, Source: Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services, from IRS County-to-County Migration data

Net Migration Inflow To Washington Co from Montgomery Co, Source: Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services, from IRS County-to-County Migration data

Net Migration Inflow To Cecil Co from Harford Co, Source: Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services, from IRS County-to-County Migration data

Population Change, , as a Percent of Change

Summary Slower overall population growth in Maryland in last three years due to increasing net out migration Increasing out migration linked to decreasing relative economic vitality and higher housing prices Slower growth more apparent in central Maryland

Summary (cont.) Outlying areas with relatively lower housing prices have been the recipient of some of the displaced growth from central Maryland This has led to these outlying areas accounting for a greater share of statewide growth and in some cases to have surpassed the previous decade’s total growth