How to feed the World in 2050 Rome, 12 October 2009 Session 1 “How to feed the World in 2050” The outlook for food and agriculture in a dynamically changing economic and demographic environment Josef Schmidhuber Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

How to feed the World in 2050 Rome, 12 October 2009 Session 1 The key challenges  Feed 9.2 billion by 2050, feed them better and provide more nutritious food  Produce feedstocks for a potentially huge bioenergy market  Contribute to overall development and poverty reduction  Cope with scarce resources and shift to more sustainable production methods  Adapt to the agro-ecological conditions of climate change and help reduce GHG emissions

How to feed the World in 2050 Rome, 12 October 2009 Session 1 The dynamically changing environment  Population growth:  +2.3 bn to 2050 after +3.3 bn over the last 40 years  Highest growth in poorest region: SSA +114%  Lowest growth in richest region: E and SE Asia +14%  +2.7 bn in urban areas, massive urbanization  Income growth:  Overall a richer world by 2050  +2.9% growth p.a. for the world as a whole, higher in DCs lower in ICs  Convergence, less inequality (country basis)  Less poverty, but low poverty line of $1.25

How to feed the World in 2050 Rome, 12 October 2009 Session 1 Population growth to continue, but at a slower pace Total population (billions) Annual increments (billions) Source: UN, World Population Assessment 2006

How to feed the World in 2050 Rome, 12 October 2009 Session 1 The food outlook  Food production: slow down in growth  +70% between 2005/07 and 2050  +1,000 million t of cereals (from 2,200 million t today)  +200 million t of meats (from 270 million t today)  +300 million t of soybeans (from 215 million t today)  Food trade: rapid expansion overall  DC net imports cereal: 125 million t  300 million t  DC net exports oilseeds: 8 million t  25 million t  DC net exports sugar: 10 million t  20 million t  Food prices  Secular downward trend in real prices to discontinue?  Energy price link to become more important  Bioenergy demand: wildcard for production, trade and prices

How to feed the World in 2050 Rome, 12 October 2009 Session 1 Nutrition, hunger & malnutrition  Higher calorie availability  World: 2770  3050 kcal/p/d  DCs: 2680  2970 kcal/p/d  Lower levels and incidence of hunger  From 823 m (16.3%) in 2003/05 to 370 m in 2050 (4.8%)  WFS target of halving the absolute numbers only in the 2040s!  Progress in reducing hunger, but insufficient  Higher levels of overweight and obesity  More NCDs (diabetes 2, coronary heart disease, etc.)  Growing double burden of malnutrition, from “food poverty” to “health poverty”

How to feed the World in 2050 Rome, 12 October 2009 Session 1 Is there enough crop land?  huge potential: 4.2 billion ha  1.60 billion ha in use today, increase to 1.67 billion ha by 2050  But land reserves unevenly distributed: ample in SSA and LA, exhausted in NENA and SASIA  and: 800 mha covered by forests, 200 mha in protected areas, 60 mha in settlements

How to feed the World in 2050 Rome, 12 October 2009 Session 1 Is there enough yield potential?  Sources of growth: predominantly through higher productivity (as in the past)  World:77% yields, 14% CI, 9% area  DCs: 71% yields, 8% CI, 21% area  Yield growth: considerable slow down: 0.8% p.a. in the future compared to 1.7% in the past Yield potentials  Still considerable untapped/bridgeable yield potentials  Intensification possible to narrow yield gaps  Technology potential to raise yield ceilings  but: R&D needed for crops that are important for the poor (millet, sorghum, R&T, pulses, plantains)

How to feed the World in 2050 Rome, 12 October 2009 Session 1 Is there enough water?  Area equipped with irrigation  World:+31 mha to 318 mha  DCs: +32 mha to 251 mha  AH under irrigation: +17%  Water withdrawals: “only” +11%  Higher water use efficiency  Decline of irrigated rice area  Resource “pressure”: withdrawals as share of renewable water resources relatively low for the world as a whole, but very high in NENA (58->62%) and high and rising in SASIA (36->39%)

How to feed the World in 2050 Rome, 12 October 2009 Session 1 Agricultural transformation  Vibrant agricultural sector needed for a successful economic transformation  Low food prices and labour surplus stimulated economic growth in developed countries, absorption of rural labour, pull effect  For developing countries to enter into a similarly successful transformation, more investment in agriculture is crucial (infrastructure, institutions, R&D, extension, food safety nets, productive safety nets, resource conservation)

How to feed the World in 2050 Rome, 12 October 2009 Session 1 Conclusions  The world has the resources (land, water, genetics and know-how) to feed 9.2 billion people by 2050  Food security is a predominantly a poverty problem; but no success in poverty/hunger reduction without improvements in agriculture  The poor depend on agriculture and they are disproportionately more affected by CC, higher food and energy prices  Agriculture is the Poor's (and the world’s) best hope: Investments in agriculture are key to reducing poverty, hunger, adapting to and mitigating climate change