1. Click to edit Master title style Sustainable Agriculture, Food, Nutrition in China under New Normal Shenggen Fan Director General | International Food Policy Research Institute

2. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, March 2015 Key messages  Tremendous progress made in reducing hunger and malnutrition in China  But China’s food security and nutrition increasingly vulnerable to environmental challenges  Need to transform agriculture to improve food security and nutrition sustainably under new normal

3. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, March 2015 Tremendous progress made in improving food security and nutrition Undernourishment in China 1992-2016 (3 year avg.) Higher undernutrition rates among rural residents, migrants, poor, and elderly Overweight and obesity on the rise in China 26-44% of population overweight/obese (Gordon-Larsen et al. 2014) ↑ in non-communicable diseases (such as diabetes, heart disease, and some forms of cancer), ↑ health care costs, and ↓ labor productivity Direct and indirect costs = 4% of GDP in 2005 and 9% by 2025 ( Popkin et al. 2007) Limitations to FAO hunger estimates but provide good overview of temporal trends Stunting in children <5 years in China, 1990-2010 Note: Data for 2014–16 refer to provisional estimates Source: FAO 2015 Source: WHO 2015

4. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, March 2015 Challenging environmental trends increasingly facing China’s agriculture, food, and nutrition

5. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, March 2015 Growing environmental constraints WATER: Water stress for total renewable water withdrawn, BAU, 2050 (%) Source: Veolia Water and IFPRI 2011 LAND: Environmental degradation in China’s grain production CLIMATIC VARIABLILITY: Impact of climate change on mean crop yield Source: You, Spoor, and Ulimwengu 2010 Source: WRI 2013, IPCC 2014, World Bank 2013

6. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, March 2015 Rising agriculture-related risks to health Picture source: ILRI 2013 Human health increasingly affected by intense food production Food safety risks Unregulated expansion of food production, e.g. milk contamination Increasing proximity of industrial and agricultural activities Animal-borne diseases Growth in animal-based food production Economic costs: health care and losses in tourism, retail, and trade Influenza epidemic could cost 0.7- and 9 percent of GDP (McKibbin and Sidorenko 2006). Source: ILRI 2012

7. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, March 2015 Transforming agriculture for food, nutrition and sustainability under new normal

8. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, March 2015  Future potential of agriculture includes Improve food and nutrition security Increase household incomes and reduce poverty Stimulate rural nonfarm economy through production and consumption linkages Create employment through value addition Mitigate greenhouse gases and protect natural resources Role of agriculture under new normal

9. Click to edit Master title style Shenggen Fan, March 2015 Pathways for improving China’s food security and nutrition sustainably 1.Increase support for climate-smart, sustainable, and nutrition-sensitive agricultural investment  Resource-efficient, climate-smart agricultural technologies and practices 2.Promote mutually beneficial trade and investment  Reflect domestic resource endowments 3. Scale up productive and cross-sectoral social safety nets  Cross-sectoral social protection initiatives that target vulnerable groups