“Closing the Gap” Economic Context & Outlook South Gloucestershire Partners’ Conference 7 th March 2014 Nigel F Jump Executive Director & Chief Economist,

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Presentation transcript:

“Closing the Gap” Economic Context & Outlook South Gloucestershire Partners’ Conference 7 th March 2014 Nigel F Jump Executive Director & Chief Economist, Strategic Economics Ltd Visiting Professor in Economics, University of Bath & University of Plymouth

Global recovery underway … EZ area out of recession … but still restructuring debt China no longer slowing … but adjusting demand & debt US recovery underway … but facing ‘default’ & ‘tapering’ Still in downturn 2013 UK Q4 Real GDP still 1.3% < 2008 Q1 peak December 2013 manufacturing still 9.1% < peak Still many issues growth versus debt … UK ratios no better by housing versus trade … barriers to rebalancing ‘fuzzy’ guidance … tapering, budget & elections

OBR Forecasts : December Growth (%ch yoy) employment productivity Inflation (%ch yoy) Unemployment (%) PSND/GDP (%) Already wrong for 2013 … & 2014! 2013: growth 1.9%, inflation 2.6%, unemployment 7.6% growth borrowed? slow growth forever? “Ultimately, productivity-driven growth in real earnings is necessary to sustain the recovery.”

MPC unemployment target - scaring horses vs blowing bubbles - difficult SW trend Blue UK Red SW

hours, flexibility & composition part-time, public & flexible settlements

Sustained recovery needs productivity boost to raise real household income per head … & that needs investment-led growth: innovation, skills & market rebalancing

SW consumer-led recovery looks real

South Gloucs Economic Structure 2012% Local vs UK Agriculture, forestry & fishing Production of which manufacturing Construction Distrib, transport, accom & food Finance & insurance Business services Information & communications Real estate Public admin, education, health Other servs & household activities Strengths & weaknesses.. – rebalancing supply against demand structure?

South Gloucestershire: Issues … maintaining/building relative success … pulling up the relative laggards “WoE w/o Bristol” – 2012 GVA £15bn£23,132 per head relative UK index pts since 1997 Business stock proportionately low (Eng Av) & lowest (WoE), lowest new firm formation, lowest self-employment, lowest skills ratio, highest employment rate & job density. Claimant Count – January 2014 No.% rateyoy ch S Gloucs2, WoE16, SW67, UK1,242,

South Gloucestershire: Drivers - Investment, Innovation, Skills, Entrepreneurship, Competitiveness Rebalancing - Expenditure & sectors, Inward investment & exports, Finance & government Is South Gloucestershire ready for the marathon recovery? weight - debt & dependence fitness - productivity (absolute & relative) stamina - real investment/incomes Confidence - Aspiration, Access, Agglomeration & Action who do you compare with … aim at?

the outlook Blue muddle through, OBR/long-term trend Red 90-00s aberration, permanent damage => next crisis Green rebalancing is real … lost years worth it Merge the 3 - whither Sth Glos? UK Real GDP Growth

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