Changing Climate - Resilient Communities Climate science for natural hazard mitigation planning July 22, 2015 Dane County Emergency Management David S. Liebl UW-Madison, EPD; UW-Cooperative Extension; Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts

The arrow of time Average Annual Temperature Frequency of Heat Waves / Drought Probability of Extreme Rain / Snow GHG Emissions 2025 Long Planning Horizons Climate change occurs over decades, are stakeholder planning and management strategies in the same time frame? 42.8⁰F 48.7⁰F Stakeholder planning horizons Families Business Planning Local Gov’t Infrastructure Agriculture

“What have you heard from your stakeholders about changes in, or events caused by, Wisconsin's weather?” Most stakeholders (n = 82) talk about the weather About half as many (n = 42) talk about climate change Most stakeholders think about short term weather

“Which climate impacts affect your stakeholders?” Percent of all answers ( n=912) Drought periods in late summer Increased duration and intensity of heat waves Long periods of extreme cold More precipitation in fall, winter and spring Warm, wet winters w/frequent ice storms Stakeholders are most concerned about extreme weather

Increasing trend in extreme summer rainfall accounts for recent increase in EWI - Steven Vavrus

Upper Midwest Temperature Trends of 10 of the hottest years for daily high temperature have occurred since 1987

Projected change in annual peak temperatures (SRES A1B) days >90⁰F +0-5 days >100⁰F Heat waves are projected to increase in number and duration

1976, 2012 record Projected (A1B) Likelihood of the Warmest Day of the Year Madison, WI

Increase in number and duration of heat waves vs More frequent and longer

Upper Midwest Precipitation Trends of 10 of the wettest years for daily precipitation have occurred since 1978

Annual Average Precipitation Change Wisconsin rainfall has changed ↑7” - ↓4” since 1950

National Trends in Extreme Precipitation 1958 to 2011

Rainfall Frequency More storms -Vavrus and Behnke How Often How Much Storm Intensity vs Storm Intensity Heavier rainfall -Vavrus and Behnke How Often How Much

Storms of June 1-15, River gauges broke records 810 Square miles of land flooded 161 Communities overflowed 90 million gallons raw sewage 2,500 Drinking water wells tested - 28% contaminated $34M in damage claims paid Source: FEMA, WEM DNR

Baraboo Madison Extreme Storm Transposition - Doug Brugger *from 850.1’ NOAA CSI-SARP NA12OAR

Transposed Peak Stage: ’ 100 Year Flood Stage: ’ Duration above 100 Year Flood Stage: ~10 Days - Fletcher June 2008 Lake Stage, Transposed Case NOAA CSI-SARP NA12OAR

853.29’ peak stage (6” DEM) - Fletcher NOAA CSI-SARP NA12OAR Mendota

853.29’ peak stage (6” DEM) - Fletcher NOAA CSI-SARP NA12OAR Mendota

Tornadic Weather Annual mean = 495, Trend = /year - Brooks et al, 2014

Tornadic Weather Fewer days with tornadoes, but more tornadoes per event - Brooks et al, 2014

Extreme Winter Storms - Kunkel et al, % increase over 20 th century

Winter Snow vs. Winter Rain vs Future Wausau winters more like Milwaukee’s today Winter % Winter +6-7⁰F

Warmer Winters  More freezing rain?  Snow

Warmer Winters  More freezing rain?   Snow Melts (rain) Freezes

- Houston and Changnon, 2004 Hours of freezing rain per year in the United States Will frequency move north as winter temperatures increase?

More winter/spring precipitation = Increased groundwater recharge Mean Annual Change (mm) Runoff Recharge ET Precipitation Black Earth Creek Watershed vs Evan Murdock 45% Winter % Winter +6-7⁰F

Increased recharge = Groundwater flooding Neighborhood Flooding - Spring Green, 2008 Rising water table can result in groundwater contamination Gotkowitz & Liebl, 2013 Hwy V Roadway Flooding - Hwy V, Town of Vienna

Climate and Health WI Dept. Health Services - BRACE Project