Alaskan Arctic Economic Access : Faster than Expected James Overland NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory Seattle

Alaska 250 Miles of Open Water North of Alaska

NOAA Cross-Line Office Response to Shell 2012 Sea Ice Season Request Shell Oil Kulluk Shell Oil

SEA ICE SEPTEMBER 2012 ~50 % loss of extent from climatology NSIDC

Sea Ice Reanalysis recently verified by satellite thickness estimates Schweiger et al. 2011Schweiger et al. 2011, Maslowski et al Laxon et al % Loss in Sea Ice Volume Since the 1980s

June Snow Cover 2012 relative to

Polar Bears Loss of Habitat Walrus haul-outs move to North Of Alaska Land Walrus calf Carin Ashjian, 2004 Ringed Ribbon

Atmospheric Storm in Pacific Arctic September 2010 and August 2012 Alaska 2010

Global Warming Reduction of Arctic sea Ice Arctic amplification Surface albedo decrease Atmosphere warming Heat releases to atmosphere in the fall. Teleconnection and circulation pattern change Ocean absorbs more heat JAS SSTA Sept Sea Ice Extent OND Temp Anomaly

Arctic Amplification From E Carmack Cascading Climate Impacts to Ocean and Biology

“Better” CMIP5 Climate Models

Predictions Human forcing is known or already in the climate system. Summer Arctic wide sea ice loss is very likely to occur within a decade or two, based on multiple information. But summer open water is happening now in Alaska For 2100: Model Results Mitigation scenario (Rcp 4.5) late fall +7 °C ; late spring +2 °C Business as usual (Rcp 8.5) late fall +13 °C ; late spring +5 °C

Hot Arctic-Cold Continents Hot Arctic-Cold Continents Added Ocean Heat Storage and Heat Flux to Atmosphere from New Sea Ice Free Areas

Increased Weather Linkages? Arctic-Mid Latitude Linkages “Warm Arctic-Cold Continents”

February 2010 Winter was most extreme in 145 years of Measurements Potential Arctic Connections can make it colder and snowier in Mid-latitude winter and Drought in Summer (varies a lot) Not Just Global Warming Everywhere