Outcomes from the 2011 and 2012 Weather Ready Nation Workshops

Workshop #1: A Vital Conversation on Tornadoes and Severe Weather December 13, 2011, NWC in Norman, OK Goal: To develop a cohesive community of scientists, practitioners, and users who are committed to advancing an emerging and more unified paradigm that focuses more systemically on a warning system that will ultimately reduce the loss of life and mitigate the social and economic impacts from severe weather.

Workshop #1: A Vital Conversation on Tornadoes and Severe Weather Key: Grow and sustain effective partnerships between those who conduct both physical and social science research as well as with those who create, communicate or receive forecasts.

Topics Addressed Assessments of the major events of 2011 Improving NOAA forecasts and warnings for severe weather Improving service delivery Sharpening the science‐service linkage Leveraging community planning and impacts mitigation

Cross- Cut Themes Strongly integrate social and physical science into the future end‐to‐end weather forecast and warning process – from research to operations. Carefully review warning false alarms to determine physical science improvements and other strategies that can be used to reduce false alarms without decreasing threat detection and warning lead‐time.

Cross- Cut Themes Assess and update warning dissemination strategies. Advance physical modeling of severe weather to provide the improved lead‐time, accuracy and precision necessary to enable tornado warnings based on weather forecast model output (“Warn on Forecast”)

Cross- Cut Themes Improve outreach and education to supported agencies and groups: FEMA, emergency managers, threatened communities. Better understand the scientific certainty and uncertainty inherent in extreme weather forecasting and warnings.

Cross- Cut Themes Evolve the National Weather Service (NWS) Assessment process that follows major severe weather outbreaks to be similar to assessments of the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) that follow major transportation disasters Build coalitions with corporate America.

Community Groups Communications Emergency Decision Makers Operations Physical Science Policy Specialists Risk Mitigation and Community Resilience Senior Management

Summary Themes Integrate meteorology & social science Foster physical science improvements Address dissemination issues Ensure community resilience Address warning performance issues Improve forecast process Increase standardization Improve public education Clarify hazard communications Strengthen collaborations Address human concerns

tion/files/WRN_FinalReport pdf BAMS-D

Workshop #2: Science Imperatives for Severe Thunderstorm Research April 24-26, 2012, Birmingham, AL 63 participants: Civil engineering, communication, emergency management, geography, meteorology, psychology, public health, public policy, sociology, urban planning Teams of authors developed eight white papers for discussion

White Paper Topics Physical Understanding for Improved Forecasts Forecast and Warning Process Individual/Household Behavioral Response Population Segments with Disabilities Household Emergency Preparedness Pre-Impact Planning for Disaster Recovery Economic Analysis of Tornado Warning Systems Hazard Mitigation (Safe Rooms, Shelters)

Organizational Recommendations NOAA/NWS and NSF increase emphasis on formation of interdisciplinary teams Establish a NOAA Directorate of Human Dimensions of Weather Support R&D, test and evaluation Work across an array of disciplines Create standing Social Science Advisory Committee Proposals for weather-related social science research should contribute to operations

Physical Understanding for Improved Forecasts Wind Effects on Buildings Forecasters’ Construction of Warning Polygons Effects of False Alarms on Warning Recipients Effects of Warning Message Content and Warning Context on Population Response Laboratory and Web Experiments on Warning Messages Antecedents of Household and Business Tornado Preparedness Research Recommendations for Projects

Preparedness and Response by Vulnerable Populations Pre-Impact Planning for Post-Impact Community Recovery Tornado Mitigation Adoption Contingent Valuation of Tornado Warning Parameters Social Science Short Course for Weather Forecasters

Suggest Two Approaches for Going Forward FIRST: Research based upon interesting problems with a notional context for them but nothing more specific Examples Genomic sequencing and understanding DNA (biomarkers for disease, health disparities,...) Social media as a rapid, ubiquitous communication mechanism (exposing human rights violations, natural disasters, identifying threats) Plasma physics (disruptive solar flares/storms) Extreme weather and improved response is a notional context for all of the research done by this group Hazard SEES is a good sample opportunity – a research program, not a roadmap

SECOND: Research that more directly feeds a specific capability being developed FACETS represents a unique opportunity for creating an entirely new approach to a VERY complex problem Requires substantial research, “basic and applied” Is a framework for contextualizing research, conducting it, and evaluating it (HWT) Is not vapor ware – it will happen! This can be viewed as a research program with a roadmap Suggest Two Approaches for Going Forward

FACETs Is... To be optimized for user-specific decision-making through comprehensive integration of social/behavioral/economic sciences. A framework to focus R&D activities. 22

& :The Connections Applicable Facet Category of Challenge #1 Method #2 Obs/Guid #3 Fcstr #4 Tools #5 Output #6 Response #7 Verif Norman Meeting 1. Soc/Phys Sci Integration 2. FAR Reduction 3. Dissemination 4. Modeling 5. Outreach & Education 6. Service Assessments 7. Resilience Coalition 8. Warning Process Birmingham Meeting 1. Physical Understanding 2. Warning Process 3. Response 4. Population Differences 5. Household Preparedness 6. Planning 7. Warning Economics 8. Safe Rooms 9. Organizational WRN-Identified Projects A. Physical Understanding B. Wind & Buildings C. Polygonology D. False Alarms E. Warning Channel & Response F. Warning Message Experiments G. Preparedness H. Vulnerable Population I. Planning & Recovery J. Mitigation K. Warning Valuation L. SocSci Course

Phase 3Phase 2 Prototype Development (4.A.1) Probability of What? (1.A.1) Human Factors in HWT (4.B.1) Physical Science Track Software Track Social/Behavioral Science Track Training & Outreach Track MYRORSS (2.A.1) Phase 1 etc. AWIPS-II/HS Infrastructure (4.A.2) etc. External Name for FACETs (1.A.2) User Response Baseline (6.A.1) Warning Decision Baseline (3.C.1) Non- Numerical Threat Levels (5.A.1) etc.

How WE Can Contribute (What is Different This Time?) Further refine the existing, integrative research agenda and road map Identify specific projects to be pursued Help facilitate existing and new collaborations and the identification of funding Make sure progress is continous Continue keeping the community connected Continue to draw in new participants and expertise