The SAMPERS project - an over view By Gunnar Johansson Sveder Transek AB Postal address: Solna Torg 3, S Solna, Sweden Tel: , Fax: web:

28 April Background Long tradition of cost-benefit analysis of investment projects Long tradition of modelling - from 4-step to disaggregate systems SAMPLAN, extensive co- operation between agencies responsible for –road, rail, air, sea National transportation plan, investment plan, transportation policy: –maintenance, taxation, road pricing, technical development, regulations Evaluation of alternative scenarios the society –efficiency, environment, safety, regional balance Detailed cost-benefit analysis

28 April The old national traffic forecast system National road network data bank Public transport (train, bus, air ) Maps EMME/2 GIS FREDRIK regional trips Socio-economic data IC/3 long distance Car owner ship EVA CBA - assessment

28 April The project Contract April 1998 New traffic demand models –Current data National travel survey ( ) SP-survey (time of day) Fehmarn Belt, Öresund –All trips Regional National long distance International –Time of day modelling Long distance public transport trips –Secondary destination Regional trips Computer System –EMME/2 –Plenty of forecast parameters –Integrated into one single user- friendly system Car ownership Demand models Impact calculation Cost benefit analysis Accessibility calculation –Flexibility to output data Validation Delivery, spring and autumn 1999

28 April Data assembling Quality control Trips construction Estimation Client approval Model implementation Validation (Survey, Elasticity) Validation (Traffic counts) The project process

28 April TrainPedesr.BikeCar dr.Car pas.Bus Dest1…n TripNo trip BfBpBTGC Dest1…n BfBpBTGC Dest1…n BfBpBTGC Dest1…n Home basedSecondary destinationWorking place based ……. TripNo trip Demand models - Regional trips Nested logit models –Secondary destinations Trip purposes –Home-work trip –Recreation –Personal visits –School trips –Business –and other Sweden divided into five regions Total 8000 zones

28 April Demand models - National long distance trips Nested logit models –Time table assignment –Time of day models Trip purposes –Business Duration 0 days Duration 1+days –Private Duration 1 day Duration 2-5 days Duration 5+ days Total 670 zones Car TripNo trip Bus IC train X2000 train Air Destinations Trip frequency Destination Mode Time of day Type of ticket

28 April Impact & Cost benefit analysis Energy consumption –Petrol, Diesel –Costs Exhaust emissions –NOx, HC, Particulate, CO2, SO2 –Costs Traffic safety –Number of killed –Number of severely injured –Number of slightly injured –Wildlife accidents Costs –Maintenance costs –Consumer surplus –CBA

28 April Computer system Technology –Windows NT –Database Access (ODBC) –Software Visual Basic 5 PowerPlay –Object oriented approach Multiprocessing Export file format –EMME/2 Data bas Filter matrices –Excel Standard report –GIS MapInfo/ArcView –Micro simulation system Contram...

28 April Computer system Long dist. trip Data base SAMPERS Scenario handler system Regional trip Emme/2Power Play Impact CBA Internat. trip

28 April Model validation No “Base matrix” Model estimation –Value of time –Elasticity After implementation –Elasticity –Model vs Survey Trip frequency by mode and trip propose Trip length Traffic production (mileage) Assigned traffic –Counts Roads Trains Airports Ferries

28 April Mälar lake region, number of trips, model divided by survey

28 April Mälar lake region, number of trips, model divided by survey

28 April South region, number of home-work trips by travel distance in km

28 April Traffic production, km per day

28 April Road traffic south of Malmö city

28 April Road traffic west region

28 April Road traffic around the city of Jönköping

28 April Passenger in the Stockholm underground system

28 April Future possibilities Options –Integration of a new car owner ship model, liked by logsum variables to the demand model –Integration of land use model